FED Faiz Oranları ve Türkiye Ekonomisi: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi (1975-2024)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1975-2024 döneminde ABD Merkez Bankası’nın (FED) politika faizindeki değişimlerin Türkiye’de seçilmiş makroekonomik göstergelerle olan Granger nedenselliği (öngörü gücü) ilişkilerinin zaman içinde nasıl değiştiğini incelemektedir. Yıllık veriler kullanılarak FED faizi ile (i) USD/TRY kuru, (ii) TÜFE (log düzey), (iii) reel GSYİH büyümesi, (iv) kısa vadeli iç faiz oranı ve (v) net portföy akımları arasındaki ilişkiler her bir değişken için ayrı ikili VAR çerçevesinde değerlendirilmiştir. Zamanla değişen ilişkileri yakalamak üzere Yinelenen Genişleyen Pencere (REW) Wald testi uygulanmış ve kritik değerler bootstrap ile (B=1000) elde edilmiştir. Bulgular, FED şoklarının Türkiye’deki makro değişkenlerle olan öngörü ilişkisinin tüm örneklem boyunca sabit olmadığını; küresel finansal koşulların sıkılaştığı ve Türkiye’nin politika/kur rejimi açısından dönüşümler yaşadığı alt dönemlerde güçlenebildiğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca bulgular, politika aktarım kanallarının dönemsel olarak farklılaştığını da göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, dış finansman koşullarına duyarlı ekonomilerde zamanla değişen nedensellik yaklaşımının önemine işaret etmekte ve politika yapıcılar için dış şoklara karşı tampon mekanizmalarının güçlendirilmesine yönelik çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik
• FED Para Politikası
• Gelişen Piyasa Ekonomileri
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

Federal Reserve Interest Rates and the Turkish Economy: A Time-Varying Causality Analysis (1975-2024)

Abstract

This study examines how the Granger-causality (predictive) link between the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) policy rate and key Turkish macroeconomic indicators evolves over time during 1975–2024. Using annual data, we estimate separate bivariate VAR models between the FED rate and (i) the USD/TRY exchange rate, (ii) the CPI log level, (iii) real GDP growth, (iv) the domestic short-term interest rate, and (v) net portfolio flows. To capture time variation and potential structural change, we apply the Recursive Expanding Window (REW) Wald test and obtain critical values via bootstrap (B=1000). The results indicate that causality is not stable over the sample: predictive relationships strengthen in subperiods associated with tighter global financial conditions and domestic regime shifts, while remaining weaker or intermittent in other periods. Additionally, the findings indicate that monetary policy transmission channels vary across periods. The findings highlight the value of time‑varying causality tools for emerging markets and provide policy implications on building buffers against external monetary shocks.

Keywords

• Time-Varying Causality
• FED Monetary Policy
• Emerging Market Economies
• Turkish Economy

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