İnsan Sermayesi, Finansal Kalkınma ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: ECOWAS Ülkelerinden Panel VARX Kanıtları

Abstract

Bu makale, 14 ECOWAS ülkesi için 1970'ten 2021'e kadar panel VARX (Dışsal değişkenli Vektör Oto-Regresif). kullanarak iktisadi büyüme, finansal gelişme ve beşeri sermaye arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, para arzı ile doğumda beklenen yaşam süresi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ve GSYİH'den yurtiçi krediye, beşeri sermayeden (eğitim göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) GSYİH'ye, para arzından GSYİH'ye, beşeri sermayeden (sağlık göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) yurtiçi krediye ve yurtiçi krediden geniş para arzına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Genel olarak, geniş para arzı ile ölçülen finansal gelişme, iktisadi büyümeyi geriletirken, yurtiçi kredi ile ölçüldüğünde büyüme üzerinde pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bir etkiye sahiptir. Çalışmada, beşeri sermayenin (eğitim göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) GSYİH üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ne var ki, beşeri sermayenin (sağlık göstergesi tarafından temsil edildiğinde) GSYİH üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, beşeri sermaye (sağlık göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde), kullanılan vekilden bağımsız olarak finansal gelişme ile pozitif etkileşim içerisinde olduğu ancak beşeri sermayenin (eğitim göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) herhangi bir finansal gelişme ölçüsü ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkileşimi olmadığı sonucu bulunmuştur. İktisadi büyümenin, yurtiçi kredi yoluyla finansal gelişme üzerinde anlamlı pozitif bir etkisi olduğu, ancak para arzı ve beşeri sermaye üzerinde pozitif ve anlamsız bir etkisi olduğu sonucu elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Finansal Gelişme
• İnsan Sermayesi
• ECOWAS
• Panel VARX

The Relationship Among Human Capital, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Panel VARX Evidence from ECOWAS Countries

Abstract

This paper analyses the relationship among economic growth, financial development, and human capital for 14 ECOWAS countries from 1970 to 2021 years using panel VARX (Vector Auto–Regressive with eXogenous variable). Results suggested evidence of bidirectional causality between money supply and life expectancy at birth and unidirectional causality running from GDP to domestic credit, education, human capital to GDP, money supply to GDP, health-based human capital to domestic credit, and domestic credit to broad money. Overall, financial development, as measured by broad money, hurt economic growth, while when measured by domestic credit, it had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on growth. Human capital, while represented by education did have a positive impact on GDP, while the impact of human capital when represented by health on GDP was also positive but statistically insignificant. Also, health-based human capital interacted positively with financial development, irrespective of the proxy used, but education-based human capital had no statistically significant interaction with any financial development measures. Economic growth has a significant positive impact on financial development through domestic credit, but has a positive and insignificant impact on money supply and human capital.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Financial Development
• Human Capital
• ECOWAS
• Panel VARX

References

1. Abrigo, M.R.M. and Love, I. (2016). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. The Stata Journal, 16(3), 778-804. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1601600314
2. Abu-Bader, S. and Abu-Qarn, A.S. (2003). Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: Causality evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6–7), 567–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0161-8938(03)00057-7
3. Abubakar, A., Kassim, S.H.J. and Yusoff, M.B. (2015). Financial development, human capital accumulation and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the economic community of west african states (ECOWAS). Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 172(Special issue), 96–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.341
4. Adebisi, Y.A., Alaran, A., Badmos, A., Bamisaiye, A.O., Emmanuella, N., Etukakpan, A.U., ... Lucero-Prisno III, D.E. (2021). How West African countries prioritize health. Tropical Medicine and Health, 49(1), 87. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-021-00380-6
5. Adegbite, O.O. and Machethe, C.L. (2022). The impact of financial inclusion on the livelihoods of rural smallholder farmers in Nigeria. African Finance Journal, 24(2), 38–50. Retrieved from https://journals.co.za/
6. Ali, M., Raza, S.A.A., Puahp, C.H. and Samdani, S. (2021). How financial development and economic growth influence human capital in low-income countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 48(10), 1393-1407. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-05-2020-0323
7. Arora, R. and Jalilian, H. (2020). Financial development, human capital and economic growth: The Indian case. Journal of Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development, 1(1), 69-83. Retrieved from https://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk
8. Asta, N. and Ibrahima, T.D. (2021). Economic and monetary integration in ECOWAS countries: A panel VAR approach to identify macroeconomic shocks. World Journal of Applied Economics, 7(2), 61-87. https://doi.org/10.22440/wjae.7.2.3

9. Beck, T., Levine, R. and Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1–2), 261–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-405x(00)00072-6
10. Becker, G.S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (3rd ed.). Chiago: University of Chicago Press.
11. Becker, G.S. (2007). Health as human capital: Synthesis and extensions. Oxford Economic Papers, 59(3), 379–410. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpm020 .
12. Dada, M.A., Posu, S.M.A., Okungbowa, O.G. and Abalaba, B.P. (2021). The nexus of government spending, price, output, and money in the ECOWAS sub-region: Evidence from panel ARDL and causality approach. Economics and Business, 35(1), 71–90. https://doi.org/10.2478/eb-2021-0005
13. Dwyfor, E.A., Green, C.J. and Murinde, V. (2002). Human capital and financial development in economic growth: New evidence using the translog production function. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(2), 123–140. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.182 .
14. ECOWAS. (1975). The 1975 treaty of the economic community of west African states. Retrieved from https://www.ecowas.int/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/THE-1975-TREATY-OF-ECOWAS.pdf
15. Fisher, I. (1911). The purchasing power of money: Its determination and relation to credit, interest and crises. New York: Cosimo Classics.
16. Forouheshfar, Y. (2017). Financial sector development, economic growth and demography in MENA region (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from https://theses.hal.science/tel-01756038v1
17. Friedman, M. (1956). The quantity theory of money: A restatement. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate and P. Newman (Eds.), The New Palgrave: A dictionary of economics (pp. 3–21). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
18. Gbatu, A.P., Wang, Z., Wesseh, Jr. P.K. and Tutdel, I.Y.R. (2017). Asymmetric and dynamic effects of oil price shocks and exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from a panel of economic community of West African states (ECOWAS). International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 1–13. Retrieved from, https://www.econjournals.com
19. Hakeem, M. (2010). Banking development, human capital and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Journal of Economic Studies, 37(5), 557–577. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581011075479
20. Hakeem, M. and Oluitan, O. (2012). Financial development and human capital in south Africa: A time-series approach. Research in Applied Economics, 4(3), 18–38. https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v4i3.1498.
21. Ibrahim, M. (2018). Interactive effects of human capital in finance–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(6), 1192–1210. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-07-2017-0199/FULL/PDF .
22. Kanu, S.I., Akawudike, H.C. and Ngozi, A.N. (2022). Trade relations and trade openness amongst the ECOWAS member nations. International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, 8(2), 33–47. https://doi.org/10.18775/ijmsba.1849-5664-5419.2014.82.1004
23. Kargbo, A.A., Ding, Y. and Kargbo, M. (2016). Financial development, human capital and economic growth: New evidence from Sierra Leone. Journal of Finance and Bank Management, 4(1), 49–67. https://doi.org/10.15640/jfbm.v4n1a4 .
24. Kılıç, C. and Özcan, B. (2018). The impact of financial development on human capital: Evidence from emerging market economies. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(1), 258–267. Retrieved from https://www.econjournals.com
25. Land area. (2024). ECOWAS. Retrieved from https://www.ecowas.int/member_states
26. Muhammad, M., Baita, A. J. and Ansari, S. (2024). Understanding the dynamic linkages: Inflation, real balances, and their impact on economic growth in ECOWAS. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 22(1), 65–76. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v22i1.23106
27. Oloke, E., Olanipekun, W.D., Mabinuori, O.T., Ojo, L.B. and Aderemi, T.A. (2022). Government educational spending and human capital development in ECOWAS sub-region: Implication for sustainable development. Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, 67(3), 37–52. https://doi.org/10.2478/subboec-2022-0014
28. Orji, A., Ekeocha, D.O., Ogbuabor, J.E. and Anthony-Orji, O.I. (2022). Monetary policy channels, sectoral outputs and sustainable growth in the ECOWAS region: A rigorous analysis and implications for policy. Economia, 23(1), 105-122. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECON-06-2022-0048
29. Orji, A., Ogbuabor, J.E., Nwosu, E., Anthony-Orji, O.I. and Isaac, S.T. (2019). Financial development, human capital and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical analysis. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, 11(3), 507-531. Retrieved from https://openurl.ebsco.com/
30. Oyinlola, M.A. and Adedeji, A. (2019). Human capital, financial sector development and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52(1), 43–66. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10644-017-9217-2/TABLES/5
31. Oyinlola, M.A. and Adedeji, A.A. (2020). Enhancing economic growth impact of financial development and human capital through capital flows in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Economic Development, 45(2), 95–114. Retrieved from https://jed.cau.ac.kr
32. Samson, E. (2010). Comparative analysis of the effect of oil price increase on economies of ECOWAS countries. West African Financial Review, 2(2), 113. Retrieved from http://waifem-cbp.org/
33. Sarwar, A., Khan, M.A., Sarwar, Z. and Khan, W. (2021). Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 5(1), 86-100. https://doi.org/10.1108/ajeb-06-2020-0015
34. United Nations. (2024a). UN office of the high representative for the Least Developed Countries, L.D.C. and S.I.D.S. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/ohrlls/content/list-ldcs
35. United Nations. (2024b). The LDC Category. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/ldc5/content/ldc-category
36. Thiel, M. (2001). Finance and economic growth-a review of theory and the available evidence (European Economy - Economic Papers No. 158). Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication884_en.pdf
37. Tinta, A.A. (2022). Financial development, ecological transition, and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: The performing role of the quality of institutions and human capital. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(Special issue), 37617–37632. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18104-y .
38. West African Monetary Agency. (2009). Money supply growth and macroeconomic convergence in ECOWAS. Retrieved from https://amao-wama.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Money-Supply-Growth.pdf
39. World Bank. (2024). World Bank country and lending groups. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mic/overview
40. World Bank. (2025a). GDP (constant 2015 US$) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
41. World Bank. (2025b). Population, total [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators