İnsan Sermayesi, Finansal Kalkınma ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: ECOWAS Ülkelerinden Panel VARX Kanıtları

Öz

Bu makale, 14 ECOWAS ülkesi için 1970'ten 2021'e kadar panel VARX (Dışsal değişkenli Vektör Oto-Regresif). kullanarak iktisadi büyüme, finansal gelişme ve beşeri sermaye arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, para arzı ile doğumda beklenen yaşam süresi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ve GSYİH'den yurtiçi krediye, beşeri sermayeden (eğitim göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) GSYİH'ye, para arzından GSYİH'ye, beşeri sermayeden (sağlık göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) yurtiçi krediye ve yurtiçi krediden geniş para arzına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Genel olarak, geniş para arzı ile ölçülen finansal gelişme, iktisadi büyümeyi geriletirken, yurtiçi kredi ile ölçüldüğünde büyüme üzerinde pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bir etkiye sahiptir. Çalışmada, beşeri sermayenin (eğitim göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) GSYİH üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ne var ki, beşeri sermayenin (sağlık göstergesi tarafından temsil edildiğinde) GSYİH üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, beşeri sermaye (sağlık göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde), kullanılan vekilden bağımsız olarak finansal gelişme ile pozitif etkileşim içerisinde olduğu ancak beşeri sermayenin (eğitim göstergesi ile temsil edildiğinde) herhangi bir finansal gelişme ölçüsü ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkileşimi olmadığı sonucu bulunmuştur. İktisadi büyümenin, yurtiçi kredi yoluyla finansal gelişme üzerinde anlamlı pozitif bir etkisi olduğu, ancak para arzı ve beşeri sermaye üzerinde pozitif ve anlamsız bir etkisi olduğu sonucu elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Finansal Gelişme
• İnsan Sermayesi
• ECOWAS
• Panel VARX

The Relationship Among Human Capital, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Panel VARX Evidence from ECOWAS Countries

Öz

This paper analyses the relationship among economic growth, financial development, and human capital for 14 ECOWAS countries from 1970 to 2021 years using panel VARX (Vector Auto–Regressive with eXogenous variable). Results suggested evidence of bidirectional causality between money supply and life expectancy at birth and unidirectional causality running from GDP to domestic credit, education, human capital to GDP, money supply to GDP, health-based human capital to domestic credit, and domestic credit to broad money. Overall, financial development, as measured by broad money, hurt economic growth, while when measured by domestic credit, it had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on growth. Human capital, while represented by education did have a positive impact on GDP, while the impact of human capital when represented by health on GDP was also positive but statistically insignificant. Also, health-based human capital interacted positively with financial development, irrespective of the proxy used, but education-based human capital had no statistically significant interaction with any financial development measures. Economic growth has a significant positive impact on financial development through domestic credit, but has a positive and insignificant impact on money supply and human capital.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Financial Development
• Human Capital
• ECOWAS
• Panel VARX

Kaynakça

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