Kompleksite Makro İktisadı: Ajan Bazlı Bir Model

Abstract

Bu çalışma, kompleksite iktisadının özellikle makro iktisat alanına sunduğu temel argümanlar doğrultusunda geliştirilen temel bir ajan bazlı makroekonomik model sunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Yerleşik makroekonomik modellerin temsili ajanlar, rasyonel beklentiler ve denge varsayımları üzerine kurulu yapısına karşılık, çalışmada mikro düzeyde heterojen özelliklere sahip ve sınırlı rasyonellikle hareket eden ajanların doğrudan etkileşimleri sonucu ortaya çıkan makroekonomik dinamikler ön plana çıkarılmaktadır. Modelde yer alan ekonomik birimler, sınırlı bilgiye dayalı olarak çevresel koşullarını değerlendirmekte ve sezgisel davranış kuralları çerçevesinde kararlarını şekillendirmektedir. Bu çerçevede piyasalar, önceden tanımlanmış bir denge durumuna ulaşma zorunluluğu olmaksızın, ajanlar arası kompleks etkileşimlerin sonucu olarak kendiliğinden örgütlenen ve evrimsel olarak gelişen yapılar olarak ele alınmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, klasik denge temelli yaklaşımların ötesine geçilerek ekonomik sistemin daha gerçekçi, dinamik ve kapsayıcı bir biçimde kavramaya olanak tanıyan bir çerçevenin mümkün olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, kompleksite iktisadının, özellikle kriz, belirsizlik dönemleri gibi düzensizlik içeren ve durağan olmayan süreçlerin analizinde daha işlevsel olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Kompleksite İktisadı
• Ajan Bazlı Makro İktisat
• Kompleks Adaptif Sistemler
• Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar

Complexity Macroeconomics: An Agent Based Model

Abstract

This study aims to present a baseline agent-based macroeconomic model developed in line with the core arguments that complexity economics brings, particularly to the field of macroeconomics. In contrast to the structure of standard macroeconomic models, which are built upon representative agents, rational expectations, and equilibrium assumptions, this study foregrounds macroeconomic dynamics that emerge from the direct interactions of agents who have heterogeneous characteristics at the micro level and operate with bounded rationality. The economic actors in the model assess their environmental conditions based on limited information and shape their decisions within the framework of heuristic behavioral rules. Within this context, markets are conceptualized as self-organizing and evolutionarily developing structures that arise from complex agent interactions, without the necessity of reaching a predefined equilibrium state. The findings demonstrate that it is possible to construct a framework that enables a more realistic, dynamic, and inclusive understanding of the economic system, moving beyond classical equilibrium-based approaches. This indicates that complexity economics may offer a more functional framework for analyzing irregular and non-stationary processes, particularly during periods of crisis and uncertainty.

Keywords

• Complexity Economics
• Agent-Based Macroeconomics
• Complex Adaptive Systems
• Business Fluctuations

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