Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation

Mehmet Ela

doi:10.30784/epfad.1806987

TR EN

Türkiye’de Kayıt Dışı Ekonomiyi Belirleyen Faktörler: İnovasyon, Hükümet Kalitesi, Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü ve Enflasyonun Rolü

Abstract

Kayıt dışı ekonomi, küresel ekonomileri olumsuz etkilemekte olup, bu nedenle birçok hükümet son yıllarda kayıt dışı ekonomiyle mücadeleye giderek daha fazla önem vermektedir. Kayıt dışı ekonominin boyutunun sınırlandırılmasının ve onu etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesinin kritik önemi dikkate alındığında, bu çalışmanın temel amacı inovasyon, kamu kesimi büyüklüğü, kamu kalitesi ve enflasyonun Türkiye’de kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, 1990–2020 dönemini kapsayan veri seti kullanılarak Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme testi ve Fourier tabanlı DOLS yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, inovasyonun, kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün ve kamu kalitesinin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, enflasyonun kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, politika yapıcıların Türkiye’de kamu kesimi büyüklüğü içinde kayıt dışı ekonomiyle mücadeleye daha fazla kaynak ayırmaları; aynı zamanda inovasyonu teşvik edici politikaları artırmaları, kamu kalitesini iyileştirmeleri ve enflasyonu daha etkin şekilde kontrol ederek makroekonomik istikrarı sağlamaları gerekmektedir.

Keywords

Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation

Abstract

Global economies are negatively impacted by the shadow economy, and hence, many governments have been increasingly trying to combat it in recent years. Considering the crucial importance of limiting the size of the shadow economy and the factors influencing it, the primary goal of this study is to investigate how innovation, government size, government quality, and inflation affect the shadow economy in Türkiye. To achieve the study’s objectives, we employ Fourier Shin cointegration and Fourier-based DOLS tests, covering the period from 1990 to 2020. The findings of the study indicate that the effects of innovation, government size, and government quality on the shadow economy are negative and statistically significant. However, inflation affects the shadow economy positively and significantly. Therefore, policymakers should allocate greater resources within the government size to combat the shadow economy in Türkiye, while simultaneously increasing policies that promote innovation, improving government quality, and maintaining macroeconomic stability by controlling inflation more effectively.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Time-Series Analysis, Inflation, Informal Economy

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mehmet Ela ^*
0000-0001-7341-6312
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 31, 2026

Submission Date

October 20, 2025

Acceptance Date

March 13, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 11 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1806987

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA53ZT62EB

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ela, M. (2026). Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(1), 77-105. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1806987

AMA

1.Ela M. Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation. EPF Journal. 2026;11(1):77-105. doi:10.30784/epfad.1806987

Chicago

Ela, Mehmet. 2026. “Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation”. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 11 (1): 77-105. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1806987.

EndNote

Ela M (March 1, 2026) Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 11 1 77–105.

IEEE

[1]M. Ela, “Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation”, EPF Journal, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 77–105, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.30784/epfad.1806987.

ISNAD

Ela, Mehmet. “Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation”. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 11/1 (March 1, 2026): 77-105. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1806987.

JAMA

1.Ela M. Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation. EPF Journal. 2026;11:77–105.

MLA

Ela, Mehmet. “Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation”. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 11, no. 1, Mar. 2026, pp. 77-105, doi:10.30784/epfad.1806987.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Ela. Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation. EPF Journal. 2026 Mar. 1;11(1):77-105. doi:10.30784/epfad.1806987