Türkiye’de Kayıt Dışı Ekonomiyi Belirleyen Faktörler: İnovasyon, Hükümet Kalitesi, Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü ve Enflasyonun Rolü

Öz

Kayıt dışı ekonomi, küresel ekonomileri olumsuz etkilemekte olup, bu nedenle birçok hükümet son yıllarda kayıt dışı ekonomiyle mücadeleye giderek daha fazla önem vermektedir. Kayıt dışı ekonominin boyutunun sınırlandırılmasının ve onu etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesinin kritik önemi dikkate alındığında, bu çalışmanın temel amacı inovasyon, kamu kesimi büyüklüğü, kamu kalitesi ve enflasyonun Türkiye’de kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, 1990–2020 dönemini kapsayan veri seti kullanılarak Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme testi ve Fourier tabanlı DOLS yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, inovasyonun, kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün ve kamu kalitesinin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, enflasyonun kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, politika yapıcıların Türkiye’de kamu kesimi büyüklüğü içinde kayıt dışı ekonomiyle mücadeleye daha fazla kaynak ayırmaları; aynı zamanda inovasyonu teşvik edici politikaları artırmaları, kamu kalitesini iyileştirmeleri ve enflasyonu daha etkin şekilde kontrol ederek makroekonomik istikrarı sağlamaları gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi
• Hükümet Kalitesi
• Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü
• İnovasyon

Determinants of the Shadow Economy in Türkiye: The Role of Innovation, Government Quality, Government Size, and Inflation

Öz

Global economies are negatively impacted by the shadow economy, and hence, many governments have been increasingly trying to combat it in recent years. Considering the crucial importance of limiting the size of the shadow economy and the factors influencing it, the primary goal of this study is to investigate how innovation, government size, government quality, and inflation affect the shadow economy in Türkiye. To achieve the study’s objectives, we employ Fourier Shin cointegration and Fourier-based DOLS tests, covering the period from 1990 to 2020. The findings of the study indicate that the effects of innovation, government size, and government quality on the shadow economy are negative and statistically significant. However, inflation affects the shadow economy positively and significantly. Therefore, policymakers should allocate greater resources within the government size to combat the shadow economy in Türkiye, while simultaneously increasing policies that promote innovation, improving government quality, and maintaining macroeconomic stability by controlling inflation more effectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Shadow Economy
• Government Quality
• Government Size
• Innovation

Kaynakça

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