İkili Ticaret Büyümeyi Destekler Mi? Türkiye-Almanya Ticareti Üzerine ARDL Sınır Testi Bulguları

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin Almanya ile dış ticaretinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi 1971-2024 dönemi için ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenlerin durağanlıkları incelendikten sonra gerçekleştirilen sınır testi sonuçları, kişi başına reel GSYİH ile ihracat, ithalat, brüt sermaye oluşumu ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Kısa dönem tahmin sonuçları, ihracat ve ithalat değişkenlerindeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Hata düzeltme katsayısının negatif ve anlamlı bulunması, kısa dönemli sapmaların zaman içinde uzun dönem dengesine doğru düzeltildiğini ifade etmektedir. Buna karşılık uzun dönem katsayılarının istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olması, Türkiye’nin Almanya ile ikili ticaret hacmindeki değişimlerin sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin temel belirleyicisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Bulgular, dış ticaretin büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin ticaret hacminden ziyade üretim yapısı, yerli katma değer ve teknoloji düzeyi gibi yapısal faktörlere bağlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Yüksek katma değerli üretimin artırılması ve ithal girdi bağımlılığının azaltılması önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye-Almanya ekonomik ilişkileri bağlamında ikili ticaret ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiye uzun ve kısa dönemli kanıtlar sunarak literatüre katkı sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır.

Keywords

• İhracat
• İthalat
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• ARDL

Does Bilateral Trade Promote Growth? Evidence from Türkiye-Germany Trade Using the ARDL Bounds Test

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Turkey's foreign trade with Germany on economic growth for the period 1971-2024 using the ARDL approach. After examining the stationarity of the variables, the results of the bounds test revealed a long-term cointegration relationship between real GDP per capita and exports, imports, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment. Short-term estimation results show that changes in export and import variables have statistically significant effects on economic growth. The negative and significant error correction coefficient indicates that short-term deviations are corrected towards long-term equilibrium over time. Conversely, the statistically insignificant long-term coefficients suggest that changes in Turkey's bilateral trade volume with Germany are not a fundamental determinant of sustainable economic growth. The findings reveal that the impact of foreign trade on growth depends more on structural factors such as production structure, domestic value added, and technology level, rather than trade volume. Increasing high-value-added production and reducing dependence on imported inputs are crucial. This study aims to contribute to the literature by presenting long-term and short-term evidence on the relationship between bilateral trade and economic growth within the context of Turkish-German economic relations.

Keywords

• Export
• Import
• Economic Growth
• ARDL

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