Küresel İklim Politikası Belirsizliği ve Pay Getirileri: BIST Sektör Endekslerinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma küresel iklim politikası belirsizliğinin pay piyasası getirilerine etkisini Türkiye’deki sektörler özelinde incelemektedir. Bu kapsamda iklim politikası belirsizliğini temsilen Ma vd. (2024) tarafından önerilen küresel endeks ve Borsa İstanbul pay endekslerine ilişkin 2000-2023 yıllarını kapsayan haftalık veriler kullanılmıştır. Kantil regresyon sonuçları, sektörlerin küresel endeksten etkilenme derecelerini ortaya koymakla beraber, farklı piyasa durumlarında iklim politikası belirsizliklerinin etkilerini de ortaya çıkarmıştır. Çoğu piyasa koşulu için küresel iklim politikası belirsizliği enerji payları yoğun elektrik sektöründe pozitif ve anlamlı bir etki yaratırken, diğer sektörlerde aynı etkiler farklı piyasa koşullarında ortaya çıkmaktadır. Küresel iklim politikası belirsizliği, teknoloji sektörü paylarında düşük kantillerde (ayı piyasa koşullarında) pozitif etkiler yaratırken, kimya, mali ve sınai sektörde bu etkiler yüksek kantillerde (boğa piyasa koşullarında) görülmektedir. Öte yandan Ana Metal sektöründe en üst kantilde pozitif ve anlamlı ilişkiler bulunurken, benzer etkiler hizmet sektörü için en alt ve orta kantillerde görülmüştür. İlgili sonuçların, küresel ve yerel düzeyde iklim politikalarını yürüten düzenleyicilere, yatırımcılara ve araştırmacılara faydalı olması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

• Küresel İklim Politikası Belirsizliği
• Pay Piyasaları
• Kantil Regresyon

Global Climate Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from BIST Sectoral Indices

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Global Climate Policy Uncertainty (GCPU) on stock market returns in Türkiye at the sectoral level. To this end, the study employs the weekly GCPU Index proposed by Ma et al. (2024) and data for the Borsa Istanbul stock indices covering the period 2000–2023. Quantile regression results reveal not only the extent to which sectors are affected by the global index, but also how climate policy uncertainty influences returns across different market conditions. GCPU exerts a positive and significant effect on energy-intensive electricity sector shares across most market states, whereas the same results emerge in other sectors under different market states. In technology shares, GCPU generates positive effects in lower quantiles (bearish market conditions), while in the chemical, financial, and industrial sectors, such effects emerge in higher quantiles (bullish market conditions). On the other hand, positive and significant relationships are found in the basic metal sector at the top quantile, while similar effects are seen for the services sector at the lowest quantile and middle quantiles. Overall, the results are expected to provide valuable insights for global and local climate-related regulators as well as investors and researchers.

Keywords

• Global Climate Policy Uncertainty
• Stock Markets
• Quantile Regression

References

1. Alharbey, M. and Ben-Salha, O. (2024). Does climate policy uncertainty predict renewable energy stocks? A quantile-based (a) symmetric causality analysis. Energy Strategy Reviews, 54, 101465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101465
2. Apergis, N., Gavriilidis, K. and Gupta, R. (2023). Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests. Tourism Economics, 29(6), 1484-1498. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221110540
3. Ayed, S., Ben-Amar, W. and Arouri, M. (2024). Climate policy uncertainty and corporate dividends. Finance Research Letters, 60, 104948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104948
4. Azimli, A. (2023). The impact of climate policy uncertainty on firm value: Does corporate social responsibility engagement matter? Finance Research Letters, 51, 103456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103456
5. Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
6. Berestycki, C., Carattini, S., Dechezleprêtre, A. and Kruse, T. (2022). Measuring and assessing the effects of climate policy uncertainty (OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1724). https://doi.org/10.1787/34483d83-en
7. Cepni, O., Demirer, R. and Rognone, L. (2022). Hedging climate risks with green assets. Economics Letters, 212, 110312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110312
8. Chen, J. and Wang, X. (2025). Climate policy uncertainty and the Chinese sectoral stock market: A multilayer network analysis. Economic Systems, 49(1), 101250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101250

9. Chen, Z., Zhang, L. and Weng, C. (2023). Does climate policy uncertainty affect Chinese stock market volatility? International Review of Economics & Finance, 84, 369-381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.11.030
10. Çelik, B.S. and Doğan, B.Ö. (2024). Does uncertainty in climate policy affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from the U.S. Ekonomika, 103(1), 44–55. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2024.103.1.3
11. Di Tommaso, C., Foglia, M. and Pacelli, V. (2024). The impact of climate policy uncertainty on the Italian financial market. Finance Research Letters, 69, 106094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106094
12. Ding, S., Wu, X., Cui, T., Goodell, J.W. and Du, A.M. (2025). Modeling climate policy uncertainty into cryptocurrency volatilities. International Review of Financial Analysis, 102, 104030. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104030
13. Doğan, B.Ö. (2023). The relationship between climate policy uncertainty and inflation: The case of the USA. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 18(3), 675-687. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1292370
14. Eissa, M.A., Al Refai, H. and Chortareas, G. (2025). Climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, oil volatility, and global food price volatility: A Time-varying analysis. Economic Modelling, 107272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107272
15. Engle, R.F., Giglio, S., Kelly, B., Lee, H. and Stroebel, J. (2020). Hedging climate change news. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(3), 1184-1216. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz072
16. Faccini, R., Matin, R. and Skiadopoulos, G. (2023). Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices? Journal of Banking & Finance, 155, 106948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106948
17. Fan, M., Mo, Z., Fu, H., Wu, T.H., Chen, Z. and He, Y. (2024). Does climate policy uncertainty matter for bank value? Economic Change and Restructuring, 57(2), 56. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09651-8
18. Fan, Y., Jia, J.J., Wang, X. and Xu, J.H. (2017). What policy adjustments in the EU ETS truly affected the carbon prices? Energy Policy, 103, 145-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.008
19. Gavriilidis, K. (2021). Measuring climate policy uncertainty (SSRN Paper No. 3847388). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3847388
20. Ghani, U., Zhu, B., Qin, Q. and Ghani, M. (2024). Forecasting US stock market volatility: Evidence from ESG and CPU indices. Finance Research Letters, 59, 104811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104811
21. Guo-Rong, C.H.E.N., Su-Sa, W.A.N.G., Jing, D.E.N.G., Hao-Yi, H.O.U., Shu-Qi, Y.I.N., Wei, F.E.N. G. and Hao-Ze, Q.U. (2024). China climate policy uncertainty index: Construction, analysis and application prospects. Advances in Climate Change Research, 20(3), 361. https://doi.org/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.034
22. He, M. and Zhang, Y. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 81, 101675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101675
23. He, M., Zhang, Y., Wang, Y. and Wen, D. (2024). Modelling and forecasting crude oil price volatility with climate policy uncertainty. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03561-w
24. Huang, B., Punzi, M.T. and Wu, Y. (2021). Do banks price environmental transition risks? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Journal of Corporate Finance, 69, 101983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101983
25. Huang, T. and Sun, Z. (2024). Climate policy uncertainty and firm investment. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 29(4), 4358-4371. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2881
26. Huang, T., Sun, Z. and Zhao, Z. (2025). Is climate policy uncertainty priced in China? Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-025-00475-8
27. Ilgın, K.S. (2024). Analysis of the impact of climate policy and energy uncertainties on the stock exchange: The case of Türkiye and America. PressAcademia Procedia (PAP), 20, 34-40. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1922
28. Ilhan, E., Sautner, Z. and Vilkov, G. (2021). Carbon tail risk. The Review of Financial Studies, 34(3), 1540–1571. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa071.
29. Iqbal, N., Bouri, E., Shahzad, S.J.H. and Alsagr, N. (2024). Asymmetric impacts of Chinese climate policy uncertainty on Chinese asset prices. Energy Economics, 133, 107518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107518
30. Irani, F., Athari, S.A. and Hadood, A.A.A. (2022). The impacts of country risk, global economic policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic factors on the Turkish tourism industry. International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration, 23(6), 1242-1265. https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480.2021.1935393
31. Lasisi, L., Omoke, P.C. and Salisu, A.A. (2024). Climate policy uncertainty and stock market volatility. Asian Economics Letters, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.37246
32. Li, X. and Su, C.W. (2022). Does climate policy uncertainty matter for macroeconomic conditions? Evidence from China (SSRN Paper No. 4319781). Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=4319781
33. Lian, Y., Li, J. and He, F. (2025). How does climate policy uncertainty affect banks loan loss provisions? Evidence from China. Managerial and Decision Economics, 46(5), 3039-3066. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4511
34. Liang, C., Umar, M., Ma, F. and Huynh, T.L. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 182, 121810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121810
35. Lin, B. and Zhao, H. (2023). Tracking policy uncertainty under climate change. Resources Policy, 83, 103699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103699
36. Liu, G., Luo, K., Xu, P. and Zhang, S. (2023). Climate policy uncertainty and its impact on major grain futures. Finance Research Letters, 58, 104412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104412
37. Liu, W., Liu, Y., Wen, F. and Gong, X. (2025). Climate policy uncertainty and analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from the Chinese energy sector. International Review of Financial Analysis, 100, 103960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103960
38. Lv, W. and Li, B. (2023). Climate policy uncertainty and stock market volatility: Evidence from different sectors. Finance Research Letters, 51, 103506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103506
39. Ma, D., Zhang, D., Guo, K. and Ji, Q. (2024). 2000-2023 global climate policy uncertainty [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Global_Climate_Policy_Uncertainty_2000-2023_/24807627?file=49365187 Ma, D., Zhang, D., Guo, K. and Ji, Q. (2024). Coupling between global climate policy uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty. Finance Research Letters, 69, 106180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106180
40. Ma, Y.R., Liu, Z., Ma, D., Zhai, P., Guo, K., Zhang, D. and Ji, Q. (2023). A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China. Scientific Data, 10(1), 881. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02817-5
41. Özkan, N. (2024). İklim politikası belirsizliğinin ve jeopolitik belirsizliğin BIST gıda ve içecek endeksi üzerine etkisi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 9(2), 198-209. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/joeep/
42. Pijourlet, G. (2024). Climate policy uncertainty and US industry stock returns: A quantile regression approach. Economics Bulletin, 44(1), 182-189. Retrieved from https://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/
43. Refinitiv. (2025). 2000-2023 Turkish stock market data [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://eikon.refinitiv.com/
44. Ren, X., Li, J., He, F. and Lucey, B. (2023). Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 173, 113058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.113058
45. Ren, X., Zhang, X., Yan, C. and Gozgor, G. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China. Energy Economics, 113, 106209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106209
46. Siddique, M.A., Nobanee, H., Hasan, M.B., Uddin, G.S., Hossain, M.N. and Park, D. (2023). How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets. Energy Economics, 128, 107195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107195
47. Tedeschi, M., Foglia, M., Bouri, E. and Dai, P.F. (2024). How does climate policy uncertainty affect financial markets? Evidence from Europe. Economics Letters, 234, 111443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111443
48. Tran, V. (2025). Climate policy uncertainty and earnings management. Finance Research Letters, 71, 106393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106393
49. Treepongkaruna, S., Chan, K.F. and Malik, I. (2023). Climate policy uncertainty and the cross-section of stock returns. Finance Research Letters, 55, 103837. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103837
50. Waldmann, E. (2018). Quantile regression: A short story on how and why. Statistical Modelling, 18(3-4), 203-218. https://doi.org/10.1177/1471082X1875914
51. Xu, X., Huang, S., Lucey, B.M. and An, H. (2023). The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US. International Review of Financial Analysis, 88, 102671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102671