Küresel İklim Politikası Belirsizliği ve Pay Getirileri: BIST Sektör Endekslerinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma küresel iklim politikası belirsizliğinin pay piyasası getirilerine etkisini Türkiye’deki sektörler özelinde incelemektedir. Bu kapsamda iklim politikası belirsizliğini temsilen Ma vd. (2024) tarafından önerilen küresel endeks ve Borsa İstanbul pay endekslerine ilişkin 2000-2023 yıllarını kapsayan haftalık veriler kullanılmıştır. Kantil regresyon sonuçları, sektörlerin küresel endeksten etkilenme derecelerini ortaya koymakla beraber, farklı piyasa durumlarında iklim politikası belirsizliklerinin etkilerini de ortaya çıkarmıştır. Çoğu piyasa koşulu için küresel iklim politikası belirsizliği enerji payları yoğun elektrik sektöründe pozitif ve anlamlı bir etki yaratırken, diğer sektörlerde aynı etkiler farklı piyasa koşullarında ortaya çıkmaktadır. Küresel iklim politikası belirsizliği, teknoloji sektörü paylarında düşük kantillerde (ayı piyasa koşullarında) pozitif etkiler yaratırken, kimya, mali ve sınai sektörde bu etkiler yüksek kantillerde (boğa piyasa koşullarında) görülmektedir. Öte yandan Ana Metal sektöründe en üst kantilde pozitif ve anlamlı ilişkiler bulunurken, benzer etkiler hizmet sektörü için en alt ve orta kantillerde görülmüştür. İlgili sonuçların, küresel ve yerel düzeyde iklim politikalarını yürüten düzenleyicilere, yatırımcılara ve araştırmacılara faydalı olması beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küresel İklim Politikası Belirsizliği
• Pay Piyasaları
• Kantil Regresyon

Global Climate Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from BIST Sectoral Indices

Öz

This study examines the impact of Global Climate Policy Uncertainty (GCPU) on stock market returns in Türkiye at the sectoral level. To this end, the study employs the weekly GCPU Index proposed by Ma et al. (2024) and data for the Borsa Istanbul stock indices covering the period 2000–2023. Quantile regression results reveal not only the extent to which sectors are affected by the global index, but also how climate policy uncertainty influences returns across different market conditions. GCPU exerts a positive and significant effect on energy-intensive electricity sector shares across most market states, whereas the same results emerge in other sectors under different market states. In technology shares, GCPU generates positive effects in lower quantiles (bearish market conditions), while in the chemical, financial, and industrial sectors, such effects emerge in higher quantiles (bullish market conditions). On the other hand, positive and significant relationships are found in the basic metal sector at the top quantile, while similar effects are seen for the services sector at the lowest quantile and middle quantiles. Overall, the results are expected to provide valuable insights for global and local climate-related regulators as well as investors and researchers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global Climate Policy Uncertainty
• Stock Markets
• Quantile Regression

Kaynakça

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