Batı Balkan Ülkelerinde Makroekonomik Göstergeler ve Yolsuzluk Algı Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Sabit Etkiler Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Arnavutluk, Bosna-Hersek, Kosova, Karadağ, Kuzey Makedonya ve Sırbistan’dan oluşan altı Batı Balkan ülkesinde Yolsuzluk Algı Endeksi (CPI) skorları ile seçili makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, söz konusu ilişkileri ampirik olarak değerlendirmektir. Tahmin örneklemi 2002-2024 dönemine yayılan 115 ülke-yıl gözleminden oluşmaktadır. Analizde ekonomik gelişmişlik gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla, makroekonomik istikrarsızlık enflasyon, dış sermaye kanalı ise doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları aracılığıyla temsil edilmektedir. CPI skorunun yükselmesi algılanan yolsuzluğun azalması anlamına geldiğinden, tahmin edilen pozitif katsayılar daha düşük yolsuzluk algısıyla, negatif katsayılar ise daha yüksek yolsuzluk algısıyla ilişkilendirilmektedir. Analizde ülke ve yıl sabit etkilerini içeren iki yönlü sabit etkiler modeli kullanılmış, yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve otokorelasyon nedeniyle katsayılar Driscoll-Kraay dirençli standart hatalarıyla raporlanmıştır. İki yönlü sabit etkiler modelinde enflasyon katsayısı negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı iken, GSYH katsayısı istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarına ilişkin bulgular ise spesifikasyona duyarlıdır. Bulgular nedensel etkilerden ziyade koşullu panel ilişkileri olarak değerlendirilmelidir.

Keywords

• Yolsuzluk Algı Endeksi
• Batı Balkanlar
• Makroekonomik İstikrar
• Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları

The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Indicators and the Corruption Perceptions Index in Western Balkan Countries: A Fixed-Effects Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) scores and selected macroeconomic indicators in six Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The aim of this study is to empirically examine these relationships. The estimation sample consists of 115 country-year observations covering 2002-2024. In the analysis, economic development is represented by gross domestic product, macroeconomic instability by inflation, and the external capital channel by foreign direct investment. Since a higher CPI score indicates a lower perceived level of corruption, positive estimated coefficients are associated with lower perceived corruption, whereas negative coefficients are associated with higher perceived corruption. The analysis uses a two-way fixed-effects model with country and year effects, and because of cross-sectional dependence and autocorrelation the coefficients are reported with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. In the two-way fixed-effects model, while the inflation coefficient is negative and statistically significant, the GDP coefficient is not statistically significant. The findings regarding the foreign direct investment is specification-sensitive. The findings should be interpreted as conditional panel associations rather than causal effects.

Keywords

• Corruption Perceptions Index
• Western Balkans
• Macroeconomic Stability
• Foreign Direct Investments

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