Finansal Kapsayıcılıktan Finansal Dayanıklılığa: Türkiye'de Değişen Belirleyiciler (2011–2024)

Abstract

Finansal şoklara karşı dayanabilme ve uzun vadeli refah kaybı olmaksızın toparlanabilme kapasitesi olarak tanımlanan finansal dayanıklılık, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde ekonomik refahın temel göstergelerinden biridir. Bu çalışma, 2011–2024 döneminde Türkiye’de finansal dayanıklılığın belirleyicilerini ve seyrini, makroekonomik dalgalanmalar, dijital dönüşüm ve kurumsal yeniden yapılanma bağlamında incelemektedir. Global Findex mikro verileri kullanılarak yapılan Genelleştirilmiş Sıralı Logit (gologit2) analizi, finansal dayanıklılığın üç düzeyini (dayanıksız, kırılgan, dayanıklı) açıklayan sosyoekonomik ve kurumsal etkenleri ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgulara göre gelir, eğitim, tasarruf davranışı ve yaş dayanıklılığı anlamlı biçimde artırmaktadır. Dijital finans ve tasarruf etkileşimi, dijitalleşmenin tek başına değil aktif tasarruf davranışıyla birleştiğinde dayanıklılığı güçlendirdiğini göstermektedir. Cinsiyet farkı gelir ve eğitim kontrol edildiğinde istatistiksel olarak önemsizdir. Dayanıklılığın 2017’de yüksek seyrettiği, ancak 2024’e doğru enflasyon ve reel gelir erozyonu nedeniyle gerilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de hanehalkı dayanıklılığını güçlendirmek için tasarruf teşviklerinin, güvenli dijital finansal altyapının ve finansal kurumlara duyulan güvenin artırılmasının öncelikli politika alanları olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Finansal Dayanıklılık
• Finansal Kapsayıcılık
• Finansal İktisat
• Kurumsal İktisat
• Davranışsal İktisat

From Financial Inclusion to Financial Resilience: Evolving Determinants in Türkiye (2011–2024)

Abstract

Financial resilience—the capacity of individuals and households to withstand financial shocks and recover without enduring welfare losses—has become an essential indicator of economic well-being in emerging economies. This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of financial resilience in Türkiye from 2014 to 2024, a period marked by macroeconomic volatility, digital transformation, and institutional reform. Using Global Findex microdata and a Generalized Ordered Logit (gologit2) model with robust errors, the study identifies socioeconomic and institutional factors shaping resilience levels—not resilient, vulnerable, and resilient. Results show that income, education, savings behavior, and age significantly enhance resilience. The saving–digital finance interaction reveals that digital inclusion alone does not increase resilience; benefits emerge only when households actively save through digital platforms. Formal borrowing is positively associated with resilience, reflecting short-term liquidity support, while account ownership shows mixed effects. Gender differences become statistically insignificant once income and education are controlled for. Resilience was highest in 2017 but declined toward 2024 amid persistent inflation and income erosion. Findings emphasize that saving incentives, safe digital ecosystems, and institutional trust are crucial for sustaining household resilience.

Keywords

• Financial Resilience
• Financial Inclusion
• Financial Economics
• Institutional Economics
• Behavioral Economics

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