Finansal Kapsayıcılıktan Finansal Dayanıklılığa: Türkiye'de Değişen Belirleyiciler (2011–2024)

Öz

Finansal şoklara karşı dayanabilme ve uzun vadeli refah kaybı olmaksızın toparlanabilme kapasitesi olarak tanımlanan finansal dayanıklılık, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde ekonomik refahın temel göstergelerinden biridir. Bu çalışma, 2011–2024 döneminde Türkiye’de finansal dayanıklılığın belirleyicilerini ve seyrini, makroekonomik dalgalanmalar, dijital dönüşüm ve kurumsal yeniden yapılanma bağlamında incelemektedir. Global Findex mikro verileri kullanılarak yapılan Genelleştirilmiş Sıralı Logit (gologit2) analizi, finansal dayanıklılığın üç düzeyini (dayanıksız, kırılgan, dayanıklı) açıklayan sosyoekonomik ve kurumsal etkenleri ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgulara göre gelir, eğitim, tasarruf davranışı ve yaş dayanıklılığı anlamlı biçimde artırmaktadır. Dijital finans ve tasarruf etkileşimi, dijitalleşmenin tek başına değil aktif tasarruf davranışıyla birleştiğinde dayanıklılığı güçlendirdiğini göstermektedir. Cinsiyet farkı gelir ve eğitim kontrol edildiğinde istatistiksel olarak önemsizdir. Dayanıklılığın 2017’de yüksek seyrettiği, ancak 2024’e doğru enflasyon ve reel gelir erozyonu nedeniyle gerilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de hanehalkı dayanıklılığını güçlendirmek için tasarruf teşviklerinin, güvenli dijital finansal altyapının ve finansal kurumlara duyulan güvenin artırılmasının öncelikli politika alanları olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Dayanıklılık
• Finansal Kapsayıcılık
• Finansal İktisat
• Kurumsal İktisat
• Davranışsal İktisat

From Financial Inclusion to Financial Resilience: Evolving Determinants in Türkiye (2011–2024)

Öz

Financial resilience—the capacity of individuals and households to withstand financial shocks and recover without enduring welfare losses—has become an essential indicator of economic well-being in emerging economies. This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of financial resilience in Türkiye from 2014 to 2024, a period marked by macroeconomic volatility, digital transformation, and institutional reform. Using Global Findex microdata and a Generalized Ordered Logit (gologit2) model with robust errors, the study identifies socioeconomic and institutional factors shaping resilience levels—not resilient, vulnerable, and resilient. Results show that income, education, savings behavior, and age significantly enhance resilience. The saving–digital finance interaction reveals that digital inclusion alone does not increase resilience; benefits emerge only when households actively save through digital platforms. Formal borrowing is positively associated with resilience, reflecting short-term liquidity support, while account ownership shows mixed effects. Gender differences become statistically insignificant once income and education are controlled for. Resilience was highest in 2017 but declined toward 2024 amid persistent inflation and income erosion. Findings emphasize that saving incentives, safe digital ecosystems, and institutional trust are crucial for sustaining household resilience.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Resilience
• Financial Inclusion
• Financial Economics
• Institutional Economics
• Behavioral Economics

Kaynakça

1. Allen, F., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L. and Martinez Peria, M.S. (2016). The foundations of financial inclusion: Understanding ownership and use of formal accounts. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 27, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2015.12.003
2. Ando, A. and Modigliani, F. (1963). The "life cycle" hypothesis of saving: Aggregate implications and tests. The American Economic Review, 53(1), 55–84. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
3. Arner, D.W., Barberis, J. and Buckley, R.P. (2017). FinTech, RegTech, and the reconceptualization of financial regulation. Northwestern Journal of International Law & Business, 37(3), 371–413. Retrieved from http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/
4. Atkinson, A. and Messy, F. (2012). Measuring financial literacy: Results of the OECD/INFE pilot study (OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions No. 15). https://doi.org/10.1787/5k9csfs90fr4-en
5. Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Levine, R. (2007). Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 27–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-007-9010-6
6. Çalış, N. and Gökçeli, E. (2022). The relationship between financial inclusion and income inequality: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(4), 401-414. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1177426
7. Davutyan, N. and Öztürkkal, B. (2016). Determinants of saving-borrowing decisions and financial inclusion in a high middle income country: The Turkish case. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(11), 2512–2529. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1187596
8. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., Ansar, S. and Hess, J. (2018). The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring financial inclusion and the fintech revolution. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1259-0

9. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D. and Ansar, S. (2022). The Global Findex Database 2021: Financial inclusion, digital payments, and resilience in the age of COVID-19. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/37578
10. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D. and Ansar, S. (2025). The Global Findex Database 2024: Financial inclusion and the digital economy. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex
11. Ergün, K. (2025). Responsible financial behavior: Similarities and differences between youth in Türkiye and Lithuania. Revista Romaneasca Pentru Educatie Multidimensionala, 17(3), 726–753. https://doi.org/10.18662/rrem/17.3/1041
12. Greenwood, J. and Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076–1107. https://doi.org/10.1086/261720
13. Hamid, F.S., Loke, Y.J. and Chin, P.N. (2023). Determinants of financial resilience: Insights from an emerging economy. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 25, 479–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-023-00239-y
14. Honohan, P. (2008). Cross-country variation in household access to financial services. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(11), 2493–2500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.05.004
15. Karaçimen, E. (2015). Interlinkages between credit, debt and the labor market: Evidence from Turkey. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(3), 751–767. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu016
16. Klapper, L., Lusardi, A. and Panos, G.A. (2012). Financial literacy and the financial crisis (Policy Research Working Paper Series 5980). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w17930
17. Lusardi, A. and Mitchell, O.S. (2014). The economic importance of financial literacy: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1), 5–44. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.1.5
18. Modigliani, F. and Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data. In K. Kurihara (Ed.), Post-Keynesian economics (pp. 388–436). Rutgers University Press.
19. North, D.C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
20. Ouechtati, I. (2020). The contribution of financial inclusion in reducing poverty and income inequality in developing countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 10(9), 1051–1061. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2020.109.1051.1061
21. Ozili, P.K. (2018). Impact of digital finance on financial inclusion and stability. Borsa Istanbul Review, 18(4), 329–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2017.12.003
22. Ozili, P.K. (2022). Financial inclusion and sustainable development: An empirical association. Journal of Money and Business, 2(2), 186–198. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMB-03-2022-0019
23. Özşuca, E.A. (2019). Gender gap in financial inclusion: Evidence from MENA. Economics and Business Letters, 8(4), 199–208. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.8.4.2019.199-208
24. Özşuca, E.A. (2025). Gender gap in digital financial inclusion across generations. Empirica, 52(2), 197–210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09641-z
25. Salignac, F., Marjolin, A., Reeve, R. and Muir, K. (2019). Conceptualizing and measuring financial resilience: A multidimensional framework. Social Indicators Research, 145(1), 17–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-019-02100-4
26. Takmaz, S., Sarı, E. and Alataş, S. (2024). Financial inclusion in Turkey: Unpacking the provincial inequality and its determinants. Applied Economics Letters, 31(7), 661–669. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2141442
27. Solon, G., Haider, S.J. and Wooldridge, J.M. (2015). What are we weighting for? Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 301–316. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.301
28. WFID Partnership. (2022). Towards women’s financial inclusion: A gender data diagnostic of Türkiye. Retrieved from https://data2x.org/resource-center/towards-womens-financial-inclusion-a-gender-data-diagnostic-of-turkey/
29. Williams, R. (2006). Generalized ordered logit/partial proportional odds models for ordinal dependent variables. The Stata Journal, 6(1), 58–82. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0600600104