Belirsizlik Altında Risk Algısı: Güvenli Liman Varlık Getirisi Tepkilerine İlişkin Davranışsal Bir Analiz

Abstract

Çalışma, güvenli liman varlıklarına ilişkin miktar temelli talebi doğrudan ölçmekten ziyade, güvenli liman varlık getirisi tepkilerini davranışsal bir perspektiften incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Algılanan risk, kayıptan kaçınma ve belirsizlikten kaçınma kritik belirleyici süreç ve özellikler olarak ele alınmaktadır. Ocak 2000-Ekim 2025 dönemi verilerinde güvenli liman varlıkları olarak altın, İsviçre frangı (USD/CHF) ve Japon yeni (USD/JPY) incelenmektedir. VIX, EPU ve GPR endeksleri sırasıyla finansal piyasa, ekonomik politika ve jeopolitik belirsizliği temsil etmektedir. Bağımlı değişkenler durağan getiri serileri olduğundan, ampirik tasarım eşbütünleşme veya hata düzeltme modeli olarak değil, asimetrik kısmi toplam ayrıştırmasına dayalı yön-bağımlı dinamik regresyon çerçevesi olarak yeniden yapılandırılmıştır. Bulgular hem kümülatif hem de kısa dönemli getiri tepkilerinde anlamlı asimetriler olduğunu göstermektedir. Belirsizlikteki artışlar, belirsizlikteki düşüşlere kıyasla daha güçlü ve daha kalıcı iken; düşüşlere verilen tepkiler daha zayıf ve çoğu durumda istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Tüm ölçümlerde belirsizliğin artması ve azalmasına verilen yatırımcı tepkileri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklılık göstermektedir. Etkilerin yoğunluğu ve süresi farklı varlıklar arasında değişmekte, bu da altın ve döviz bazlı güvenli liman varlıklarının yatırımcılar için farklı davranışsal rollere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Risk Algısı
• Belirsizlikten Kaçınma
• Kayıptan Kaçınma
• Duygu Sezgisi
• Yatırımcı Psikolojisi
• Güvenli Liman Varlıkları
• Davranışsal Finans
• Asimetrik Tepkiler

Risk Perception under Uncertainty: A Behavioral Analysis of Safe-Haven Asset Return Responses

Abstract

The study aims to examine the return responses of safe-haven assets from a behavioural perspective rather than to measure quantity-based demand directly. It elaborates on perceived risk, loss aversion, and uncertainty avoidance as critical determining processes and traits. The data from January 2000 to October 2025 examine gold, the Swiss franc (USD/CHF), and the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) as safe-haven assets. The VIX, EPU, and GPR indices represent financial market, economic policy, and geopolitical uncertainty, respectively. Because the dependent variables are stationary return series, the empirical design is framed as a direction-dependent dynamic regression based on asymmetric partial-sum decomposition rather than as a cointegration or error-correction model. The evidence shows significant asymmetries in both cumulative and short-run return responses. Greater and more persistent responses occur amid rises in uncertainty than falls in uncertainty, which show much weaker and often insignificant responses. Investor reactions to higher and lower levels of uncertainty show a statistically significant difference for all the measures. The intensity and duration of these effects vary across different assets, indicating that gold and currency-based safe-haven assets have different behavioural roles for investors.

Keywords

• Risk Perception
• Ambiguity Aversion
• Loss Aversion
• Affect Heuristic
• Investor Psychology
• Safe-Haven Assets
• Behavioral Finance
• Asymmetric Responses

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