Tek Politika Faizi, Farklı Sektörel Tepkiler: Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizmasına İlişkin Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, enflasyon hedeflemesi döneminde Türkiye’deki sektörel parasal aktarım mekanizmasını incelemektedir. 2006Ç1–2018Ç2 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılarak tarım, sanayi, inşaat ve hizmetler sektörleri için VAR modelleri tahmin edilmektedir. Ampirik çerçeve sektörel çıktı, sektörel üretici fiyatları, sektörel kredi, sektörel borsa endeksleri, efektif politika faizi ve nominal döviz kurunu içermektedir. Etki tepki fonksiyonları ve tahmin hatası varyans ayrıştırmaları, para politikası şoklarının dinamik etkilerini ve aktarım kanallarının göreceli önemini değerlendirmektedir. Bulgular, para politikasının hem sektörel çıktıyı hem de sektörel fiyatları etkilediğini, ancak tepkilerin büyüklüğünün ve zamanlamasının sektörler arasında farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Döviz kuru kanalı özellikle sektörel fiyat dinamikleri açısından en etkili mekanizma iken, faiz oranı kanalı ise özellikle inşaat ve hizmetler sektörlerinin çıktısı için önemlidir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’de para politikasının sektörel açıdan tarafsız olmadığını ve genel analizlerin üretim sektörleri arasındaki önemli heterojenliği gizleyebileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması
• Sektörel Dinamikler
• VAR

One Policy Rate, Different Sectoral Responses: Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Türkiye

Abstract

This paper examines the sectoral monetary transmission mechanism in Türkiye during the inflation-targeting period. Using quarterly data for 2006Q1–2018Q2, it estimates VAR models for the agriculture, industry, construction, and services sectors. The empirical framework includes sectoral output, sectoral producer prices, sectoral credit, sectoral stock market indices, the effective policy rate, and the nominal exchange rate. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions assess the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks and the relative importance of transmission channels. The findings show that monetary policy affects both sectoral output and prices, but the magnitude and timing of responses vary across sectors. The exchange rate channel is the most influential mechanism, particularly for sectoral price dynamics, while the interest rate channel is especially relevant for construction and services output. These results indicate that monetary policy in Türkiye is not sectorally neutral and that aggregate analyses may conceal important heterogeneity across production sectors.

Keywords

• Monetary Transmission Mechanism
• Sectoral Dynamics
• VAR

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