Döngüsel İstihdam Avrupa Birliği’nde Yakınsıyor mu? Koşullu Beta Yakınsama Analizi Bulguları

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği üyesi ülkeler arasındaki döngüsel istihdam eğilimlerinin yakınsamasını, büyüme literatürünün geleneksel araçları vasıtasıyla incelemektedir. Döngüsel ekonomi sektörlerinde istihdam edilenler üzerinde gerek üretimin ve verginin gerekse de politika değişikliklerinin etkisi kaçınılmazdır. Bu nedenle reel milli gelir, çevre vergileri ile 2015 ve 2020 döngüsel ekonomi eylem planlarının da etkisi dikkate alınarak, Birlik üyesi ülkeler arasında 2013-2023 döneminde, döngüsel istihdamda bir yakınsama eğilimi olup olmadığı, Koşullu Beta Yakınsama Analizi vasıtasıyla araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, ülkelerin döngüsel istihdamında anlamlı bir yakınsama eğiliminin varlığına işaret etmekle birlikte, bu yakınsama eğiliminin 2020 Döngüsel Ekonomi Eylem Planı’nın uygulandığı döneme denk gelen 2022 yılındaki ortak bir yapısal kırılmanın ardından güçlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Söz konusu yapısal kırılmanın ardından, kişi başına düşen reel milli gelirin döngüsel istihdamı artırdığı, toplam vergi gelirleri içinde çevre vergilerinin payındaki artışların ise azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma, gittikçe daha fazla ülke tarafından benimsenen bu paradigma dönüşümü çerçevesinde, döngüsel işlerin açıklanması ve döngüsel istihdamın incelenmesi bakımından, işgücü piyasalarını döngüsel sisteme uyarlamayı amaçlayan ülkelere yol gösterici nitelik taşımaktadır.

Keywords

• Döngüsel Ekonomi
• Döngüsel İstihdam
• Avrupa Birliği
• Koşullu Beta Yakınsama Analizi

Is Circular Employment Converging in the European Union? Findings of Conditional Beta Convergence Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the convergence of circular employment trends among European Union member states using traditional tools from the growth literature. The impact of both production and taxation, as well as policy changes, on those employed in circular economy sectors is inevitable. Therefore, considering real national income, environmental taxes, and the effects of the 2015 and 2020 circular economy action plans, Conditional Beta Convergence Analysis is used to investigate whether circular employment converges among EU member states during the 2013-2023 period. The findings indicate a significant convergence trend in circular employment across countries; furthermore, they reveal that convergence intensified following a common structural break identified in 2022—a period coinciding with the implementation of the 2020 Circular Economy Action Plan. It is concluded that following this structural break, circular employment is boosted by increases in real per capita national income. In contrast, it is reduced by increases in the share of environmental taxes within total tax revenues. Within the framework of this paradigm shift, which is being adopted by an increasing number of countries, this study provides guidance for countries aiming to adapt their labor markets to a circular system by explaining circular work and examining circular employment.

Keywords

• Circular Economy
• Circular Employment
• European Union
• Conditional Beta Convergence Method

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