Döngüsel İstihdam Avrupa Birliği’nde Yakınsıyor mu? Koşullu Beta Yakınsama Analizi Bulguları

Öz

Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği üyesi ülkeler arasındaki döngüsel istihdam eğilimlerinin yakınsamasını, büyüme literatürünün geleneksel araçları vasıtasıyla incelemektedir. Döngüsel ekonomi sektörlerinde istihdam edilenler üzerinde gerek üretimin ve verginin gerekse de politika değişikliklerinin etkisi kaçınılmazdır. Bu nedenle reel milli gelir, çevre vergileri ile 2015 ve 2020 döngüsel ekonomi eylem planlarının da etkisi dikkate alınarak, Birlik üyesi ülkeler arasında 2013-2023 döneminde, döngüsel istihdamda bir yakınsama eğilimi olup olmadığı, Koşullu Beta Yakınsama Analizi vasıtasıyla araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, ülkelerin döngüsel istihdamında anlamlı bir yakınsama eğiliminin varlığına işaret etmekle birlikte, bu yakınsama eğiliminin 2020 Döngüsel Ekonomi Eylem Planı’nın uygulandığı döneme denk gelen 2022 yılındaki ortak bir yapısal kırılmanın ardından güçlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Söz konusu yapısal kırılmanın ardından, kişi başına düşen reel milli gelirin döngüsel istihdamı artırdığı, toplam vergi gelirleri içinde çevre vergilerinin payındaki artışların ise azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma, gittikçe daha fazla ülke tarafından benimsenen bu paradigma dönüşümü çerçevesinde, döngüsel işlerin açıklanması ve döngüsel istihdamın incelenmesi bakımından, işgücü piyasalarını döngüsel sisteme uyarlamayı amaçlayan ülkelere yol gösterici nitelik taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döngüsel Ekonomi
• Döngüsel İstihdam
• Avrupa Birliği
• Koşullu Beta Yakınsama Analizi

Is Circular Employment Converging in the European Union? Findings of Conditional Beta Convergence Analysis

Öz

This study examines the convergence of circular employment trends among European Union member states using traditional tools from the growth literature. The impact of both production and taxation, as well as policy changes, on those employed in circular economy sectors is inevitable. Therefore, considering real national income, environmental taxes, and the effects of the 2015 and 2020 circular economy action plans, Conditional Beta Convergence Analysis is used to investigate whether circular employment converges among EU member states during the 2013-2023 period. The findings indicate a significant convergence trend in circular employment across countries; furthermore, they reveal that convergence intensified following a common structural break identified in 2022—a period coinciding with the implementation of the 2020 Circular Economy Action Plan. It is concluded that following this structural break, circular employment is boosted by increases in real per capita national income. In contrast, it is reduced by increases in the share of environmental taxes within total tax revenues. Within the framework of this paradigm shift, which is being adopted by an increasing number of countries, this study provides guidance for countries aiming to adapt their labor markets to a circular system by explaining circular work and examining circular employment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Circular Economy
• Circular Employment
• European Union
• Conditional Beta Convergence Method

Kaynakça

1. Arbolino, R., Boffardi, R., De Simone, L., Ioppolo, G. and Lopes, A. (2024). Circular economy convergence across European Union: Evidence on the role policy diffusion and domestic mechanisms. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 96, 102051. doi:10.1016/j.seps.2024.102051
2. Barro, R. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223-251. doi:10.1086/261816
3. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 1, 107-182. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/
4. Bassi, F. and Guidolin, M. (2021). Resource efficiency and circular economy in European SMEs: Investigating the role of green jobs and skills. Sustainability, 13(21), 12136. doi:10.3390/su132112136
5. Baumol, W.J. (1986). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: What the long-run data show. American Economic Review, 76(5), 1072-1085. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
6. Baypınar, M.B. and Erkut, G. (2011). Economic globalization and convergence in regional productivity rates in Turkey. The Journal of İTÜ/A Architecture, 10(1), 61-70. Retrieved from https://itudergi.itu.edu.tr/index.php/itudergisi_a/
7. Belliler, İ.S. (2023). Convergence of military expenditures in MENA countries: Evidences from a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Multiple Breaks. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 39, 183-199. doi:10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1190962
8. BLS. (2020). The BLS green jobs definition. Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/green/green_definition.htm

9. Burger, S., Ramkumar, D. and van Oort, F. (2019). The heterogeneous skill-base of circular economy employment. Research Policy, 48(1), 248-261. doi:10.1016/j.respol.2018.08.015
10. Calanter, P., Drăgoi, A.E., Gramaticu, M., Dumitrescu, A., Taranu, M., Gudanescu, N. and Alina-Cerasela, A. (2025). Circular economy and job creation: A comparative approach in an emerging European context. Sustainability, 17(6), 2614. doi:10.3390/su17062614
11. Calzoni, G., Perugini, C. and Signorelli, M. (2006). Real converge and employment intensity of growth: An empirical analysis for the EU countries and regions. Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu, 1099, 310-337. Retrieved from https://dbc.wroc.pl/
12. Circle Economy. (2021). The circularity gap report 2021. Retrieved from https://pdf.circularity-gap.world/?report=Circularity_Gap_Report_2021_28d30234f4&page=1
13. Circle Economy. (2023). The circularity gap report 2023. Retrieved from https://pdf.circularity-gap.world/?report=Circularity_Gap_Report_2023_72fb5bacb2&page=1
14. Circle Economy. (2026a). The circularity gap report 2026: The value gap. Retrieved from https://pdf.circularity-gap.world/?report=Circularity_Gap_Report_2021_28d30234f4&page=1
15. Circle Economy. (2026b). The power of countries to close the circularity gap. Retrieved from https://circularity-gap.world/#nations
16. Costantini, V., Delgado, F.J. and Presno, M.J. (2023). Environmental innovations in the EU: A club convergence analysis of the eco-innovation index and driving factors of the clusters. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 46, 100698. doi:10.1016/j.eist.2023.100698
17. Cristea, A. (2026). Circular economy as a driver of labour market change: Evidence from Romania (2014-2024). Hyperion Economic Journal, XIII(1), 16-28. Retrieved from https://hej.hyperion.ro/
18. Çelik, O. (2020). The circular economy and employment nexus: the case of the European Union countries. In F. Sayın (Ed.), Circular economy-macro and micro examinations (pp. 91-112). Ankara: Nobel Academic Publishing.
19. Diaz-Foncea, M. and Marcuello, C. (2014). The relation between total employment and cooperative employment: A convergence and causality analysis. Spatial Economic Analysis, 9(1), 71-92. doi:10.1080/17421772.2013.864048
20. Ditzen, J., Karavias, Y. and Westerlund, J. (2021). XTBREAK: Stata module for detecting and dating multiple structural breaks in time series and panel data [Statistical software components]. Boston College Department of Economics, S459010. Retrieved from https://www.stata.com/
21. Driscoll, J. and Kraay, A.C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 549-560. doi:10.1162/003465398557825
22. Durán-Romero, G., López-García, A.M., Ramírez-Carrera, D. and Negrín-de la Peña, J.A. (2025). Socioeconomic impacts and regional disparities in circular economy adoption: Insights from Europe and beyond. Journal of Circular Economy, 3(3). doi:10.55845/HOND7103
23. EIO. (2016). Policies and practices for eco-innovation uptake and circular economy transition (EIO Bi-annual Report). Retrieved from https://wupperinst.org/en/a/wi/a/s/ad/6632/
24. Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2015). Towards a circular economy: Business rationale for an accelerated transition. Retrieved from https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/TCE_Ellen-MacArthur-Foundation_9-Dec-2015.pdf
25. EPEA. (2014). Luxembourg as a knowledge capital and testing ground for the circular economy. National roadmap to positive impacts. Tradition, transition, transformation. Retrieved from https://circulareconomy.europa.eu/platform/sites/default/files/luxembourg-circular-economy-study.pdf
26. European Commission. (2014). Towards a circular economy: A zero-waste programme for Europe. Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:aa88c66d-4553-11e4-a0cb-01aa75ed71a1.0022.03/DOC_1&format=PDF
27. European Commission. (2015). Closing the loop-an EU action plan for the circular economy (COM/2015/0614 final). Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:8a8ef5e8-99a0-11e5-b3b7-01aa75ed71a1.0012.02/DOC_1&format=PDF
28. European Commission. (2020). Circular economy action plan. Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:9903b325-6388-11ea-b735-01aa75ed71a1.0017.02/DOC_1&format=PDF
29. European Commission. (2026). State of the Union. Environment. strategy. Circular economy. Retrieved from https://environment.ec.europa.eu/strategy/circular-economy_en
30. European Court of Auditors. (2023). Circular economy-slow transition by member states despite EU action. Retrieved from https://www.eca.europa.eu/ECAPublications/SR-2023-17/SR-2023-17_EN.pdf
31. European Union. (2026a). Europa. EUR-Lex home. Summaries of EU legislation. European employment strategy (EES). Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/european-employment-strategy-ees.html
32. European Union. (2026b). The birth of the European Employment Strategy: The Luxembourg process (November 1997). Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/HU/ALL/?uri=LEGISSUM%3Ac11318#:~:text=The%20Luxembourg%20Jobs%20Summit%20in,the%20instruments%20of%20the%20EES).
33. Eurostat. (2026a). Circular economy-Policy context. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/circular-economy/information-data/policy-context
34. Eurostat. (2026b). Circular economy-Overview. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/circular-economy/overview
35. Eurostat. (2026c). Persons employed in circular economy sectors [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/cei_cie011__custom_21151519/default/table
36. Eurostat. (2026d). Employed persons by detailed economic activity (NACE Rev. 2 two-digit level) (2008-2026) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/LFSA_EGAN22D__custom_6026396/default/table?lang=en.
37. Eurostat. (2026e). Real GDP per capita [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/
38. Eurostat. (2026f). Environmental tax revenues as share of total taxes [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/
39. Fafalios, P., Daglis, T. and Tsagarakis, K.P. (2026). Decoding the circular economy job market in the EU: A quantitative and comparative analysis. Business Strategy and the Environment, 0964-4733, 1-26. doi:10.1002/bse.71125
40. Fayou, H. (2025). Convergence of fiscal capacities of Moroccan regions: An econometric analysis using dynamic panel data. ORGANIZE: Journal of Economics, Management and Finance, 4(4), 357-367. doi:10.58355/organize.v4i4.199
41. Global Footprint Network. (2026). Measure what you treasure. Retrieved from https://www.footprintnetwork.org/
42. Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271. doi:10.2307/1913827
43. Henriques, C.O., Viseu, C. and Sousa, S. (2025). Evaluating eco-innovation efficiency and club convergence trends across the European Union: A window slack-based measure approach. Sustainable Futures, 9, 100673. doi:10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100673
44. Horbach, J., Rennings, K. and Sommerfeld, K. (2015). Circular economy and employment. Retrieved from https://circulareconomy.europa.eu/platform/sites/default/files/horbach_j11332.pdf
45. Karademir, C., Felek, S. and Ceylan, R. (2023). Is the Convergence Hypothesis valid for per capita energy consumption among G20 countries? Findings from the Nahar-Inder Test. Business and Economics Research Journal, 14(3), 337-350. doi:10.20409/berj.2023.420
46. Karul, Ç. (2025). A stochastic convergence analysis of economic freedom and its subcomponents in European Union countries. İstanbul Nişantaşı University Journal of Social Sciences, 13(Special Issue), 166-177. doi:10.52122/nisantasisbd.1808554
47. Kirchherr, J., Reike, D. and Hekkert, M. (2017). Conceptualizing the circular economy: An analysis of 114 definitions. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 127, 221-232. doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.005
48. Moreno-Mondéjar, L., Triguero, A. and Cuerva, M.C. (2021). Exploring the association between circular economy strategies and green jobs in European companies. Journal of Environmental Management, 297, 113437. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113437
49. Muñoz, H.M.E., Novak, M., Gil, S., Dufourmont, J., Goodwin Brown, E., Confiado, A. and Nelemans M. (2022). Tracking a circular economy transition through jobs: Method development and application in two cities. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 3, 787076. doi:10.3389/frsc.2021.787076
50. Nasution, N.F. and Tri Wahyun, K. (2022). Industrialization and convergence of west java manufacturing labor productivity, Indonesia. Journal of Economics and Policy-JEJAK, 15(1), 165-178. doi:10.15294/jejak.v15i1.33459.
51. Obadić, A., Arčabić, V. and Rogić Dumančić, L. (2021). Labor market institutions convergence in the European Union (EFZG Working Paper Series 2021(02)). Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/366358
52. OECD. (2023). The circular economy in Tallinn, Estonia. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/the-circular-economy-in-tallinn-estonia_06abc3de-en.html
53. Okorie, O., Konstantinos, S., Charnley, F., Moreno, M, Turner, C. and Tiwari, A. (2018). A data-driven approaches for circular economy in manufacturing for digital technologies: A review of current research and proposed framework. Preprints, 2018080159. doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0159.v1
54. Oláh, J., Bin Amin, M., Hasan, M., Hossain, M.S. and Rahaman, M.A. (2026). Drivers of circular economy transition towards sustainability: A panel data analysis across 18 EU countries. Sustainable Horizons, 19, 100192. doi:10.1016/j.horiz.2026.100192
55. Özçelik, O. (2022). Does the foreign trade-driven competitive power of transition economies converge toward that of EU14 countries? Evidence from Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 36, 257-282. doi:10.26650/ekoist.2022.36.1065053
56. Pearce, D.W. and Turner, R.K. (1990). Economics of natural resources and the environment. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
57. Potting, J., Hekkert, M., Worrell, E. and Hanemaaijer, A. (2017). Circular economy: Measuring innovation in the product chain. Retrieved from https://www.pbl.nl/uploads/default/downloads/pbl-2016-circular-economy-measuring-innovation-in-product-chains-2544.pdf
58. Rađenović, Ž., Janjić Papakosmidis, I., Talić, M. and Rađenović, M. (2026). Comparative evaluation of EU circular economy sector performances: Cluster-driven analysis and MCDM methods. Sustainability, 18(8), 3716. doi:10.3390/su18083716
59. Sayın, F. (2020). Introduction: Towards the circular economy. In F. Sayın (Ed.), Circular economy - macro and micro examinations (pp. 1-15). Ankara: Nobel Academic Publishing.
60. Sayın, F. and Çelik, O. (2020). Eco-innovation from a circular economy perspective: A comparative analysis of Türkiye and European Union countries. In G. Muratoğlu (Ed.), Innovation in the process of economic and technological change, 523-556, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
61. Scarpellini, S., Valero-Gil, J., Moneva, J. M. and Andreaus, M. (2020). Environmental management capabilities for a “circular eco-innovation”. Business Strategy and Environment, 29(1), 1-15. doi:10.1002/bse.2472
62. Solow, R. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. doi:10.2307/1884513
63. UNEP. (2008). Green jobs: Towards decent work in a sustainable. Low-carbon World. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_emp/@emp_ent/documents/publication/wcms_158727.pdf
64. Utkulu, U. and Türköz, K. (2020). Reflections of the transition process to the circular economy on international trade: The case of Turkey. In F. Sayın (Eds.), Circular economy - macro and micro examinations, 113-142, Ankara: Nobel Academic Publishing.
65. Van Buren, N., Demmers, M., Der Heijden, R.V. and Witlox, F. (2016). Towards a circular economy: The role of Dutch logistics industries and governments. Sustainability, 8(7), 647. doi:10.3390/su8070647