Abstract
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de enflasyonun kaynağı ekonometrik test yöntemleri kullanılarak belirlenmeye çalışılmaktadır. Bu amaçla, 2003:2-2014:12 dönemi aylık nominal faiz, TÜFE ve ÜFE enflasyon oranları kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler VAR blok Granger nedensellik, etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre, faiz oranlarından TÜFE enflasyon oranlarına doğru bir ilişkiye rastlanılmamış olması, Türkiye’de enflasyonun kaynağının talep yönlü olmadığını gösterir. Ancak, analiz sonuçlarından ÜFE enflasyonundan TÜFE enflasyon oranlarına doğru çok güçlü olmasa da istatistiki yönden anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanılmış olması, faiz oranları dışında üretim maliyetlerini etkileyen faktörlerin TÜFE enflasyonunun pozitif yöndeki artışında etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Yani Türkiye’de incelenen dönemde enflasyonun kaynağının talep ağırlıklı değil daha çok maliyet ağırlıklı olduğunu göstermektedir
Abstract
In this study, the source of inflation in Turkey are tried to determine using econometric test methods. For this purpose, monthly nominal interest rates, CPI and PPI inflation rates series are used for the period 2003:2-2014:12. Relations between variables are analyzed with VAR block granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition methods. According to test results, there is no relation found from the interest rates to the CPI inflation rates. This result indicates that the source of inflation is not demand side in Turkey. However, although there is a statistical relation from the PPI inflation to CPI inflation, the factors, which are affecting production costs, have effective to increase CPI inflation except interest rates. In other words, in Turkey, the costs are more responsible from the source of inflation compared to demand during the investigation period.
Keywords
Details
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | June 10, 2016 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2016 Issue: 47 |
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