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KAMU HARCAMALARI ÎLE GAYRÎ SAFÎ MÎLLÎ HASILA ARASINDA BÎRÎM KOK, KO-ENTEGRASYON VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZÎ İLİŞKİLERİ

Year 1995, Issue: 12, 111 - 126, 11.11.1996

Abstract

. . . 11U Çall5mada. kamu harcamalarıyla gayrisafi milli hasıla arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir.

Bilindiği gibi, kamu finans çalışmaları genellikle zaman içersinde kamu harcamalarındaki büvü-meye ulusal gelirdeki büyümenin neden olduğunu varsayarken, çoğu makroekonomik modellerin bu konuda karşıt görüşleri de bulunmaktadır.

Bu çalışmada, kamu harcamalarıyla gayrisafi milli hasıla arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesinde, birimkök, ko-enterasyon ve nedensellik analizleri yapılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda, reel kamu harcamaları (DLRKHAR) değişkeni ve reelgayrisafi milli hasıla (DLRGSMH) değişkenlerinin logaritmik değerlerinin birinci farkları durağan seriler olarak elde edilmiştir. İlişkinin incelenmesinde durağanlığı sağlanan DLRKHAR ve DLRGSMH değişkenlerinin birlikte hareket ettikleri (ko-entegre oldukları) görülmüştür. Birlikte hareket eden bu değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Yani, reel gayrisafi milli hasıla ve reel kamu harcamaları değişkenleri hem neden, hem de sonuç değişkeni olarak elde edilmiştir.

References

  • A. Michas, Nicholas, "Wagner's Law Of Public Expenditurcs: What is the Appropriale Measurement for a Valid Test?”, Public Finance, No. 1/1975.
  • Bird, R. M., ”Wagner's ’Law' of Expanding State Activity", Public Finance, Vol. 26, No. 1/1971, pp. 1-26.
  • Dickey, D.A., William, R. B., and B. M. Robert, "Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tesis and Implications", The American Statistician, February, pp. 12-26.
  • Dickey, D.A., and W.A. Fuller, "Distribution of the Estimators for an Autoregressive for Time Series With Unit Root", Journal of American Statisticai Association, June, 1974, pp. 251-276.
  • > "Distribution of the Estimators for Time Series Regressions With a Unit
  • Root ", Journal of American Statisticai Association, 1979, pp. 427-431 Engle, R. F., and B. S. Yoo, "Foıecasting and Testing in co-interrating Systems", Journal of Econometrics, vol. 35, may, pp. 143-159.
  • Fuller, W.A., Introduction to Statisticai Time Series, Ncw York, Wiley, 1976.
  • Goffman, I. J., "On the Empirical Testing of VVagner's Law: A Time Series Analysis", Public Finance, Vol. 17, No. 3/1968, pp. 359-64.
  • Granger, C.W.J., "Developments in the Study of Co-integratcd Variables", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.48, August 1986, pp. 213-228.
  • Guilkey, D.K., and M.K. Salemi, "Small Sample Proporties of Thrce Tests for Granger-Causal Ordcring in a Bivariate Stochastic System", Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 668-80.
  • Johansen, Soren and Katarina Juselius, "Maxirnum Likelihood Estimation and Infcrence on Cointegration", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 2 (1990).
  • Jones, D.J., "A Comparison of lag-length Selection Techniques in Tests of Granger Causality Between Money Growth and İnflaûon Evidence for the US 1959-1986", Applied Economics, 21, pp. 209-282.
  • McClaim, Kathcrine T., and Len M. Nichols, "On the relation Between Investmeni and Inflation: Some Rcsults From Cointegration, Causation, and Sign Tests, Journal Post Keynesian Economics, \Vinter 1993-94, Vol. 16. No. 2.
  • MacKinnon, "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests", Long-Run Economic Relationships, R.F. Engle and C.WJ. Granger, eds, London, Oxford, 1991, pp. 267-276.
  • Peacock, A.T., and J.Wiseman, The Grovvth of Public Expenditures in the United Kingdom (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1961)
  • Ram, Rati, "Causality Between Income and Goverment Expenditure: A Broad International Perspective", Public Finance No. 1/1986.
  • Saunders, P., and F. Klav, "The role of the Public Sectör, Causes and Consequences of the Grovvth of Goverment", OECD Economic Studies, No. 4, pp.1-239.
  • Schwert, G. William, "Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data, Journal of Monetary Economics 20 (1987), 73-103, North-Holland.
Year 1995, Issue: 12, 111 - 126, 11.11.1996

Abstract

References

  • A. Michas, Nicholas, "Wagner's Law Of Public Expenditurcs: What is the Appropriale Measurement for a Valid Test?”, Public Finance, No. 1/1975.
  • Bird, R. M., ”Wagner's ’Law' of Expanding State Activity", Public Finance, Vol. 26, No. 1/1971, pp. 1-26.
  • Dickey, D.A., William, R. B., and B. M. Robert, "Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tesis and Implications", The American Statistician, February, pp. 12-26.
  • Dickey, D.A., and W.A. Fuller, "Distribution of the Estimators for an Autoregressive for Time Series With Unit Root", Journal of American Statisticai Association, June, 1974, pp. 251-276.
  • > "Distribution of the Estimators for Time Series Regressions With a Unit
  • Root ", Journal of American Statisticai Association, 1979, pp. 427-431 Engle, R. F., and B. S. Yoo, "Foıecasting and Testing in co-interrating Systems", Journal of Econometrics, vol. 35, may, pp. 143-159.
  • Fuller, W.A., Introduction to Statisticai Time Series, Ncw York, Wiley, 1976.
  • Goffman, I. J., "On the Empirical Testing of VVagner's Law: A Time Series Analysis", Public Finance, Vol. 17, No. 3/1968, pp. 359-64.
  • Granger, C.W.J., "Developments in the Study of Co-integratcd Variables", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.48, August 1986, pp. 213-228.
  • Guilkey, D.K., and M.K. Salemi, "Small Sample Proporties of Thrce Tests for Granger-Causal Ordcring in a Bivariate Stochastic System", Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 668-80.
  • Johansen, Soren and Katarina Juselius, "Maxirnum Likelihood Estimation and Infcrence on Cointegration", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 2 (1990).
  • Jones, D.J., "A Comparison of lag-length Selection Techniques in Tests of Granger Causality Between Money Growth and İnflaûon Evidence for the US 1959-1986", Applied Economics, 21, pp. 209-282.
  • McClaim, Kathcrine T., and Len M. Nichols, "On the relation Between Investmeni and Inflation: Some Rcsults From Cointegration, Causation, and Sign Tests, Journal Post Keynesian Economics, \Vinter 1993-94, Vol. 16. No. 2.
  • MacKinnon, "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests", Long-Run Economic Relationships, R.F. Engle and C.WJ. Granger, eds, London, Oxford, 1991, pp. 267-276.
  • Peacock, A.T., and J.Wiseman, The Grovvth of Public Expenditures in the United Kingdom (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1961)
  • Ram, Rati, "Causality Between Income and Goverment Expenditure: A Broad International Perspective", Public Finance No. 1/1986.
  • Saunders, P., and F. Klav, "The role of the Public Sectör, Causes and Consequences of the Grovvth of Goverment", OECD Economic Studies, No. 4, pp.1-239.
  • Schwert, G. William, "Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data, Journal of Monetary Economics 20 (1987), 73-103, North-Holland.
There are 18 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Hilmi Zengin This is me

Publication Date November 11, 1996
Published in Issue Year 1995 Issue: 12

Cite

APA Zengin, H. (1996). KAMU HARCAMALARI ÎLE GAYRÎ SAFÎ MÎLLÎ HASILA ARASINDA BÎRÎM KOK, KO-ENTEGRASYON VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZÎ İLİŞKİLERİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(12), 111-126.

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