OLASILIKLI PERT ANALİZİNDE KULLANILAN BETA DAĞILIMININ BEKLENEN DEĞERİNİN HESABINDA ORTAYA ÇIKABİLECEK HATALARIN PARAMETRİK OLARAK İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 1984, Sayı: 6, 107 - 111, 01.01.1984

Osman Unutulmaz

Öz

The modal value of the beta distribution is a functıon of the upper and Iower limits of the range. That is, for a given range, the modal value ol the distribution is determinable. However, in probabilis-tic pert models, along vvith the upper and lovver limits, a modal value is also estimated. The difference betvveen the estimated and the calculatcd modal val-ues causes an error in expected value vvhich is ob-tained using the lovver limit, upper limit and the modal value.

In this paper, necessary tools are developed and the magnitudes of errors caused by the estimated modal values are evaluated. Consequently, it is point-ed out that the deviation in expected value may be as much as % 30 of the range.

Anahtar Kelimeler

olasılıklı pert analizinde kullanılan beta dağılımı, işletme

Kaynakça

• Trueman, Richard, E., An Introduction To (Juantitative Mcthods For Decision Making, Holt Rinehart and VVinston Inc. 1974, pp. 352-355.
• Thireof. Robert J Grossee, Riclıard A., Decision Making Trough Opera-tions Research, John \Viley and Sons Inc. 1970 pp. 118-121.
• Hiller, Frederick S., Lieberman, Gerald. J„ Introduction To Operations Research, Holdan - Day Inc., 1973, pp, 234-241.
• Hahn, Gerald J„ Shapiro, Samuel S., Statistical Models in Engineering, John Wiley and Sons Inc., 1967, pp. 91 -99.
• Unutulmaz, Osman «Olasılıklı Pert Analizinde Kullanılan Beta Dağılımı ve Uygulama Hataları» E.Ü.Î. ve Î.B.F. Dergisi Sayı 4, 1983 pp. 181 -189.