Are reserves an important instrument for providing financial stability?

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 54, 508 - 525, 31.12.2019

Tayfur Bayat , Şebnem Taş

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.549355

Öz

After the financial crises of the 1990s, countries started to see international
reserves as a guarantee mechanism against the volatility arising from financial
globalization and therefore they started to increase the share of international
reserves in gross domestic product. In the light of recent experiences of
global crises, it is argued that reserves are an effective tool for ensuring
financial stability, which is an important condition of macroeconomic stability
for national economies. In this study, Turkey's economy in 2005:Q4-2018:Q3
period, the relationship between financial stability index and the central bank
official reserves is investigated. In
the whole of the empirical analysis period, the reserves have a negative effect
on financial stability. On each frequency domain: reserves have positive effect
between 2009:Q3-2012:Q2, negative effect between 2012:Q3-2016:Q4 and again
positive effect between 2017:Q1-2018:Q3.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Stability, Reserves, Ordinary Least Squares, Rolling Window Regressions

Finansal istikrarı sağlamada uluslararası rezervler önemli bir araç mıdır?

Öz

1990’larda yaşanan finansal
krizlerin sonrasında ülkeler, uluslararası rezervleri finansal küreselleşmeden
kaynaklanan oynaklığa karşı bir garanti mekanizması olarak görmeye başlamış ve
bu nedenle uluslararası rezervlerin gayri safi yurt içi hasıladaki payını
arttırmaya yönelmişlerdir. Bu çalışmada, yaşanan küresel krizlerin ardından
edinilen tecrübeler doğrultusunda ulusal ekonomiler için makro ekonomik
istikrarın önemli bir koşulu olan finansal istikrarın sağlanmasında rezervlerin
etkili bir araç olup olmadığı Türkiye örneği için araştırılmaktadır. Bu
kapsamda, Türkiye ekonomisinde 2005:Q4-2018:Q3 dönemi
için finansal istikrar endeksi ile merkez bankası resmi rezervleri arasındaki
ilişki ele alınmaktadır. Ampirik analiz periyodunun tamamında rezervlerin finansal
istikrar üzerinde negatif etkisinin olduğu, her bir frekans alanında ise
rezervlerin finansal istikrar üzerinde 2009:Q3-2012:Q2 arası pozitif,
2012:Q3-2016:Q4 arası negatif ve 2017:Q1-2018:Q3 arası tekrar pozitif etki
yarattığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

En Küçük Kareler, Finansal İstikrar, Rezervler, En Küçük Kareler, Kayan Pencere Regresyonları

Kaynakça

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