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DÖVİZ KURU ve PİYASA DİNAMİKLERİ İLİŞKİSİ (Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Ampirik Bir Çalışma )

Year 2009, Issue: 34, 51 - 67, 18.05.2015

H.ali Ata İbrahim Arslan

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin pek çoğunda, enflasyon açısından kötü bir maziye sahip olmaları nedeniyle kura dayalı istikrar programları uygulanmaktadır. Özellikle kura dayalı istikrar programlarının izlenmesinde ve değerlendirilmesinde ödemeler dengesi istatistikleri öncü gösterge niteliği taşıdıklarından, uygulanan politikaların ekonomik istikrar üzerindeki etkilerinin analiz edilmesinde dikkatle incelenmesi gereken temel değişken olmaktadır. Ayrıca döviz kurlarında meydana gelen değişmeler gerek reel sektörün ihracat yapısında gerekse ülkenin dış borç yapısında değişmelere neden olacağından bu değişkenlerin de döviz kuru ile ilişkilerinin ayrıca ele alınması gerekmektedir.  Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de döviz kurları ile dış borçlanma, reel sektör ve ödemeler dengesi arasındaki etkileşim granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Ayrıca, birim kök testi ve regresyon analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, reel döviz kurları ile dış borçlanma, reel sektör ve ödemeler dengesi arasında nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı saptanmıştır.

Keywords

Döviz kuru Ödemeler Dengesi Dış Borçlanma Regresyon Analizi Nedensellik İlişkisi

References

  • AKBOSTANCI, E.; (2002), “Dynamics of the Trade Balance : The Turkish J Curve”, ERC / METU 6. International Conference in Economics, September, Ankara.
  • BAHMAN -OSKOOEE, M.; (2001), “Nominal and Real Exchange Rates Of The Middle Eastern Countries and Their Trade Performances”, Applied Economics, 33, ss. 89–96.
  • BR GUGL O, L.; (1989), “The mpact of a Devaluation on the Maltese Trade Balance With Special Reference to the Price and ncome Reversal Effects”, Applied Economics, 21, ss. 325–37.
  • ÇOLAK, Ertu rul; (2001), “Zaman Serilerinde E bütünle im (Cointegration)”, Ankara, Bilim Dergisi, Sayı:2, ss.1-10
  • D CKEY, T.A. ve W.A. FULLER; “The Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, 1981, ss.1057-1072
  • GAFAR, J.; (1981), “Devaluation and The Balance of Payments Adjustment in A Developing Economy: An Analysis Relating to Jamaica: 1954–72”, Applied Economics, 13, ss. 151–165.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J.; (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, ss. 424-438.
  • GUJARAT , Damodar N.; (2001), Temel Ekonometri, Çev.:Ümit enesen ve G.Günlük enesen, stanbul: Literatür Yayınları
  • H MAR OS, D.; (1989), “Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The evidence revisited”, Economic Inquiry, 27, ss. 143–168.
  • KALE, P.; (2001), “Turkey’s Trade Balance in The Short and The Long Run: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration”, The International Trade Journal, XV, ss. 27–56.
  • KAPOOR, A. G. ve RAMAKR SHNAN, U.; (1999), “Is There A J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan”, International Economic Journal, 13, ss. 71–79.
  • KARAGÖZ, Kadir; (2007), “Türkiye’de Dı Borçlanmanın Nedenleri Ekonometrik Bir De erlendirme”, Sayı tay Dergisi, Sayı: 66-67, ss. 99-106
  • NARAYAN, P. K. ve S. NARAYAN; (2004), “The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji”, International Review of Applied Economics, 18, ss. 369–380.
  • OGBONNA, M. N.; (1982), “Devaluation of the Naira in Nigeria”, Asian Economic Review, 24, ss. 19–43.
  • ÖZBAY, P.; (1999), “The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports A Case Study for Turkey”, TCMB, Tartı ma Tebli leri, Ankara, s.11
  • ÖZTÜRK, . ve A. ACARAVCI; (2003), “Döviz Kurundaki De i kenli in Türkiye hracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalı ma”, Review Of Social, Economic and Business Studies, Vol.2, ss. 197-206
  • ROSE, A. K.; (1990), “Exchange Rates and The Trade Balance: Some Evidence from Developing Countries”, Economic Letters, 34, ss. 271–275.
  • ROSE, A. K.; (1991), “The Role of Exchange Rates in A Popular Model of International Trade: Does the “Marshall-Lerner” Condition Hold?”, Journal of International Economics, 30, ss. 301–316.
  • S VR , U. ve C. USTA; (2001), “Reel Döviz Kuru, hracat ve thalat Arasında- ki li ki”, Uluda Üniversitesi . .B.F. Dergisi, 19(4), ss.1-9
  • TARI, Recep; (1997), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Faiz ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik li kileri(Ekonometrik Analiz:1973-1995 Dönemi)”, Koca- eli Ünv., BF Dergisi, 1(1), s.227
  • YAMAK, R. ve A. KORKMAZ; (2005), “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dı Ticaret Dengesi li kisi”, Ekonometri ve statistik dergisi, Sayı:2, ss.11-29.
  • YUSOFF, B. MOHAMMED; (2007) “The Malaysian Real Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate”, International Review of Applied Economics, 21(5), ss. 655–667.

Year 2009, Issue: 34, 51 - 67, 18.05.2015

H.ali Ata İbrahim Arslan

Abstract

References

  • AKBOSTANCI, E.; (2002), “Dynamics of the Trade Balance : The Turkish J Curve”, ERC / METU 6. International Conference in Economics, September, Ankara.
  • BAHMAN -OSKOOEE, M.; (2001), “Nominal and Real Exchange Rates Of The Middle Eastern Countries and Their Trade Performances”, Applied Economics, 33, ss. 89–96.
  • BR GUGL O, L.; (1989), “The mpact of a Devaluation on the Maltese Trade Balance With Special Reference to the Price and ncome Reversal Effects”, Applied Economics, 21, ss. 325–37.
  • ÇOLAK, Ertu rul; (2001), “Zaman Serilerinde E bütünle im (Cointegration)”, Ankara, Bilim Dergisi, Sayı:2, ss.1-10
  • D CKEY, T.A. ve W.A. FULLER; “The Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, 1981, ss.1057-1072
  • GAFAR, J.; (1981), “Devaluation and The Balance of Payments Adjustment in A Developing Economy: An Analysis Relating to Jamaica: 1954–72”, Applied Economics, 13, ss. 151–165.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J.; (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, ss. 424-438.
  • GUJARAT , Damodar N.; (2001), Temel Ekonometri, Çev.:Ümit enesen ve G.Günlük enesen, stanbul: Literatür Yayınları
  • H MAR OS, D.; (1989), “Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The evidence revisited”, Economic Inquiry, 27, ss. 143–168.
  • KALE, P.; (2001), “Turkey’s Trade Balance in The Short and The Long Run: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration”, The International Trade Journal, XV, ss. 27–56.
  • KAPOOR, A. G. ve RAMAKR SHNAN, U.; (1999), “Is There A J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan”, International Economic Journal, 13, ss. 71–79.
  • KARAGÖZ, Kadir; (2007), “Türkiye’de Dı Borçlanmanın Nedenleri Ekonometrik Bir De erlendirme”, Sayı tay Dergisi, Sayı: 66-67, ss. 99-106
  • NARAYAN, P. K. ve S. NARAYAN; (2004), “The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji”, International Review of Applied Economics, 18, ss. 369–380.
  • OGBONNA, M. N.; (1982), “Devaluation of the Naira in Nigeria”, Asian Economic Review, 24, ss. 19–43.
  • ÖZBAY, P.; (1999), “The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports A Case Study for Turkey”, TCMB, Tartı ma Tebli leri, Ankara, s.11
  • ÖZTÜRK, . ve A. ACARAVCI; (2003), “Döviz Kurundaki De i kenli in Türkiye hracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalı ma”, Review Of Social, Economic and Business Studies, Vol.2, ss. 197-206
  • ROSE, A. K.; (1990), “Exchange Rates and The Trade Balance: Some Evidence from Developing Countries”, Economic Letters, 34, ss. 271–275.
  • ROSE, A. K.; (1991), “The Role of Exchange Rates in A Popular Model of International Trade: Does the “Marshall-Lerner” Condition Hold?”, Journal of International Economics, 30, ss. 301–316.
  • S VR , U. ve C. USTA; (2001), “Reel Döviz Kuru, hracat ve thalat Arasında- ki li ki”, Uluda Üniversitesi . .B.F. Dergisi, 19(4), ss.1-9
  • TARI, Recep; (1997), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Faiz ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik li kileri(Ekonometrik Analiz:1973-1995 Dönemi)”, Koca- eli Ünv., BF Dergisi, 1(1), s.227
  • YAMAK, R. ve A. KORKMAZ; (2005), “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dı Ticaret Dengesi li kisi”, Ekonometri ve statistik dergisi, Sayı:2, ss.11-29.
  • YUSOFF, B. MOHAMMED; (2007) “The Malaysian Real Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate”, International Review of Applied Economics, 21(5), ss. 655–667.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

H.ali Ata This is me

İbrahim Arslan This is me

Publication Date May 18, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2009 Issue: 34

Cite

APA Ata, H., & Arslan, İ. (2015). DÖVİZ KURU ve PİYASA DİNAMİKLERİ İLİŞKİSİ (Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Ampirik Bir Çalışma ). Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(34), 51-67.

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