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İMKB İLE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERİN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARININ ETKİLEŞİMİ: EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2010, Issue: 35, 99 - 118, 16.05.2015

Onur Gözbaşı

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, İMKB ile gelişmekte olan yedi ülkenin (Arjantin, Brezilya, Meksika, Hindistan, Malezya, Macaristan ve Mısır) hisse senedi piyasalarıarasındaki etkileşimi incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, Aralık 1995-Aralık 2008 dönemine ait haftalık veriler kullanmak suretiyle eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizlerine başvurulmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar İMKB ile Brezilya, Hindistan ve Mısır borsalarıarasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi ortaya koyarken; kısa dönemde söz konusu 3 ülkenin yanısıra İMKB ile Meksika ve Macaristan borsaları arasındaki etkileşime işaret etmektedir. Buna göre İMKB hala bazıgelişmekte olan ülke borsalarından ba-ğımsızdır ve yatırımcılara uluslararasıçeşitlendirme imkanısunabilecek bir borsa konumundadır.

Keywords

Hisse Senedi Piyasaları Bütünleşme Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar Sınırlar Testi Eşbütünleşme Yaklaşımı Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi.

References

  • AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi; (2004), “The Impact of Increasing Stock Market Integration on Expected Gains from International Portfolio Diversification: Evidence From a Multivare Approach with Time Varying Risk”, Economics Bulletin, 6(3), ss. 1-13.
  • BAYRİ, Osman ve Bülent GÜLOĞLU; (2005), “Hisse Senedi ve Yabancı Para Piyasalarının Entegrasyonu: Türkiye, AB, ABD Örneği”, İktisat, İş- letme ve Finans, 20(234), ss. 13-34.
  • BEKAERT, Geert; (1995), “Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets”, The World Bank Economic Review, 9(1), ss. 75-107 .
  • BEKAERT, Geert; Campbell R. HARWEY ve Christian T. LUNDBLAD; (2003), “Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Markets”, The Journal of Financial Research, 26(3), ss. 275-299.
  • BERUMENT Hakan ve Onur INCE; (2005), “Effect of S&P500’S return on emerging markets: Turkish experience”, Applied Financial Economics Letters, (1), ss. 59–64.
  • BROOKS, Chris; (2002), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 701s.
  • CHAN, Kam C.; Benton E. GUP ve Ming-Shiun PAN; (1992), “An Empirical Analysis of Stock Prices in Major Asian Markets and the United States”, The Financial Review, 27(2), ss. 289-307.
  • CHAN, Kam C.; Benton E. GUP ve Ming-Shiun PAN; (1997), “International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 24(6), ss. 803-813.
  • ÇITAK, Levent ve Onur GÖZBAŞI; (2007), “İMKB İle Bazı Önde Gelen Ge- lişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülke Borsaları Arasındaki Bütünleşmenin Temel Endeks ve Ana Sektör Endeksleri Temelinde Analizi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi,
  • DEFUSCO, Richard A.; John M. GEPPERT ve George P. TSETSEKOS; (1996), “Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets”, The Financial Review, 31(2), ss. 343-363.
  • DOLADO, Juan L. ve Helmut LUTKEPOHL; (1996), “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15(4), ss. 369-386.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. ve C. W. J. GRANGER; (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), ss. 251-276.
  • EWING, Bradley T.; James E. PAYNE ve Clifford SOWELL; (1999), “NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: an empirical note”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(2), ss. 443-451.
  • FRATZSCHER, Marcel; (2002), “Financial Market Integration in Europe: On Effects of EMU on Stock Markets”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(3), ss. 165–193.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J.; (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), ss. 424- 438.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J.; (1988), “Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39 (1-2), ss. 199-211.
  • GREGORY, Allan W. ve Bruce E. HANSEN; (1996), “Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70 (1), ss. 99–126.
  • HASSAN, Aqil Mohd. Hadi; (2003), “Financial Integration of Stock Markets in the Gulf: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis”, International Journal of Business, 8(3), ss. 335-346.
  • HUSAIN, Fazal ve Reza SAIDI; (2000), “The integration of the Pakistani equity market with international equity markets: an investigation”, Journal of International Development, 12(2), ss. 207-218.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), June- September 1988, ss. 231-254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren ve Katarina JOSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics,
  • KANAS, Angelos; (1998), “Linkages between the US and European Equity Markets: Further Evidence from Cointegration tests”, Applied Financial Economics, 8(6), ss. 607-614.
  • KARIM, Bakri Abdul ve M. Shabri Abd. MAJID; (2010), “Does Trade Matter for Stock Market Integration?”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 27(1), ss. 47-66.
  • KASA, Kenneth; (1992), “Common Stochastic Trends in International Stock Markets”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(1), ss. 95-124.
  • KASMAN, Adnan; Gülin VARDAR; Berna OKAN ve Gökçe AKSOY; (2009), “The Turkish Stock Market Integration with Developed and Emerging Countries' Stock Markets: Evidence from Cointegration Tests with and without Regime Shifts”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 5 (1), İnternet Adresi: http://www.bepress.com/rmeef/vol5/ iss1/art2, Erişim Tarihi: 10.07.2010.
  • KORKMAZ, Turhan ve Emrah İsmail ÇEVİK; (2008), “Türkiye ve Uluslarara- sı Hisse Senedi Piyasaları Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme İlişkisi ve Portföy Tercihleri”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 2(1), ss. 59-84.
  • KORAJCZYK, Robert A.; (1996), “A Measure of Stock Market Integration for Developed and Emerging Markets”, World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), ss. 267-289.
  • KOSE, Nezir ve Nuri UCAR; (2006), “Effect of Cross Correlation in Error Terms on the Model Selection Criteria for the Stationary VAR Process”, Applied Economics Letters, 13(4), ss. 223-228.
  • KUCUKCOLAK, Necla; (2008), “Co-Integration of the Turkish Equity Market with Grek and other European Union equity Markets”, Interantional Research Journal of Finance and Economics, (13), ss. 58-73.
  • KUCUKKAYA, Engin; (2009); “Dıversification Benefits of Including Turkish and US Stocks In A Portfolio”, The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, Autumn 2009, 5(2), ss. 1-11.
  • KWIATKOWSKI, Denis; Peter C.B. PHILLIPS; Peter SCHMIDT ve Yongcheol SHIN; (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), ss. 159–178.
  • LEVY, Haim ve Marshall SARNAT; (1970), “International Diversification of Investment Portfolios”, The American Economic Review, 60(4), ss. 668-675.
  • LUTKEPOHL, Helmut; (1985), “Comparison of Criteria for Estimating the Order of a Vector Autoregressive Process”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 6(1), ss. 35-52.
  • MANDACI, Pınar Evrim ve Dilvin TAŞKIN; (2005), “AB’ye Uyum Sürecinde İMKB’nin AB Piyasaları ile Karşılaştırılması”, MUFAD Muhasebe Finansman Dergisi, (26), ss. 127-137.
  • MANESCHIOLD, Per-Ola; (2005), "International Diversification Benefits between US, Turkish and Egyptian Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 3(2), İnternet Adresi: http://www.bepress.com/rmeef/vol3/iss2/art2, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2010.
  • MARASHDEH, Hazem; (2005), “Stock Market Integration in the MENA Region: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Aproach”, University of Wollongong Economic Working Paper Series No: 27, İnternet Adresi: www.uow.edu.au/commerce/econ /wpapers.html, Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2006.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar ve Russell SMYTH; (2005), “Cointegration of Stock Markets between New Zealand, Australia and the G7 Economies: Searching for Co-Movement Under Structural Change”, Australian Economic Papers, 44(3), ss. 231-247.
  • OZDEMIR, Zeynel Abidin ve Esin CAKAN; (2007), “Non-linear Dynamic Linkages in the International Stock Markets”, Physica A, 377(1), ss. 173–180.
  • PESARAN, Hashem M. ve Yongcheol SHIN; (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, in S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge-UK.
  • PESARAN, Hashem M.; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the analysis of Level Relationship”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), ss. 289-326.
  • SOLNIK, Bruno H.; (1974), “Why Not Diversify Internationally Rather Than Domestically”, Financial Analysts Journal, 30(4), ss. 48-54.
  • SPK (2009), SPK 2008 Faaliyet Raporu, İnternet Adresi:
  • http://www.spk.gov.tr/ displayfile.aspx?action=displayfile&pageid=
  • &fn=581.pdf&submenuheader=null, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2010.
  • SUBRAMANIAN, Ulaganathan; (2008), “Cointegration of Stock Markets in East Asia”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, (14), ss. 84-92.
  • TABAK, Benjamin Miranda ve Eduardo José Araşjo LIMA; (2002), “Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America”, Banco Central do Brasil Working Paper Series No: 56, İnternet Adresi: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps56.pdf, Erişim Tari- hi: 10.05.2010.
  • TAI, Chu-Sheng; (2007), “Market Integration and Contagion: Evidence from Asian Emerging Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets”, Emerging Markets Review, 8(4), ss. 264-283.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. ve Taku YAMAMOTO; (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66 (1-2), ss. 225-250.
  • TSPAKB 2010, “Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası Raporu 2009” İnternet Adresi: http://www.tspakb.org.tr/tr/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabid=152, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2010.
  • WFE (2009), “World Federation of Exchanges Annual Statistics”, İnternet Adresi: http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics,Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2009.

Year 2010, Issue: 35, 99 - 118, 16.05.2015

Onur Gözbaşı

Abstract

References

  • AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi; (2004), “The Impact of Increasing Stock Market Integration on Expected Gains from International Portfolio Diversification: Evidence From a Multivare Approach with Time Varying Risk”, Economics Bulletin, 6(3), ss. 1-13.
  • BAYRİ, Osman ve Bülent GÜLOĞLU; (2005), “Hisse Senedi ve Yabancı Para Piyasalarının Entegrasyonu: Türkiye, AB, ABD Örneği”, İktisat, İş- letme ve Finans, 20(234), ss. 13-34.
  • BEKAERT, Geert; (1995), “Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets”, The World Bank Economic Review, 9(1), ss. 75-107 .
  • BEKAERT, Geert; Campbell R. HARWEY ve Christian T. LUNDBLAD; (2003), “Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Markets”, The Journal of Financial Research, 26(3), ss. 275-299.
  • BERUMENT Hakan ve Onur INCE; (2005), “Effect of S&P500’S return on emerging markets: Turkish experience”, Applied Financial Economics Letters, (1), ss. 59–64.
  • BROOKS, Chris; (2002), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 701s.
  • CHAN, Kam C.; Benton E. GUP ve Ming-Shiun PAN; (1992), “An Empirical Analysis of Stock Prices in Major Asian Markets and the United States”, The Financial Review, 27(2), ss. 289-307.
  • CHAN, Kam C.; Benton E. GUP ve Ming-Shiun PAN; (1997), “International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 24(6), ss. 803-813.
  • ÇITAK, Levent ve Onur GÖZBAŞI; (2007), “İMKB İle Bazı Önde Gelen Ge- lişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülke Borsaları Arasındaki Bütünleşmenin Temel Endeks ve Ana Sektör Endeksleri Temelinde Analizi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi,
  • DEFUSCO, Richard A.; John M. GEPPERT ve George P. TSETSEKOS; (1996), “Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets”, The Financial Review, 31(2), ss. 343-363.
  • DOLADO, Juan L. ve Helmut LUTKEPOHL; (1996), “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15(4), ss. 369-386.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. ve C. W. J. GRANGER; (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), ss. 251-276.
  • EWING, Bradley T.; James E. PAYNE ve Clifford SOWELL; (1999), “NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: an empirical note”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(2), ss. 443-451.
  • FRATZSCHER, Marcel; (2002), “Financial Market Integration in Europe: On Effects of EMU on Stock Markets”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(3), ss. 165–193.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J.; (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), ss. 424- 438.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J.; (1988), “Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39 (1-2), ss. 199-211.
  • GREGORY, Allan W. ve Bruce E. HANSEN; (1996), “Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70 (1), ss. 99–126.
  • HASSAN, Aqil Mohd. Hadi; (2003), “Financial Integration of Stock Markets in the Gulf: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis”, International Journal of Business, 8(3), ss. 335-346.
  • HUSAIN, Fazal ve Reza SAIDI; (2000), “The integration of the Pakistani equity market with international equity markets: an investigation”, Journal of International Development, 12(2), ss. 207-218.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), June- September 1988, ss. 231-254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren ve Katarina JOSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics,
  • KANAS, Angelos; (1998), “Linkages between the US and European Equity Markets: Further Evidence from Cointegration tests”, Applied Financial Economics, 8(6), ss. 607-614.
  • KARIM, Bakri Abdul ve M. Shabri Abd. MAJID; (2010), “Does Trade Matter for Stock Market Integration?”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 27(1), ss. 47-66.
  • KASA, Kenneth; (1992), “Common Stochastic Trends in International Stock Markets”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(1), ss. 95-124.
  • KASMAN, Adnan; Gülin VARDAR; Berna OKAN ve Gökçe AKSOY; (2009), “The Turkish Stock Market Integration with Developed and Emerging Countries' Stock Markets: Evidence from Cointegration Tests with and without Regime Shifts”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 5 (1), İnternet Adresi: http://www.bepress.com/rmeef/vol5/ iss1/art2, Erişim Tarihi: 10.07.2010.
  • KORKMAZ, Turhan ve Emrah İsmail ÇEVİK; (2008), “Türkiye ve Uluslarara- sı Hisse Senedi Piyasaları Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme İlişkisi ve Portföy Tercihleri”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 2(1), ss. 59-84.
  • KORAJCZYK, Robert A.; (1996), “A Measure of Stock Market Integration for Developed and Emerging Markets”, World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), ss. 267-289.
  • KOSE, Nezir ve Nuri UCAR; (2006), “Effect of Cross Correlation in Error Terms on the Model Selection Criteria for the Stationary VAR Process”, Applied Economics Letters, 13(4), ss. 223-228.
  • KUCUKCOLAK, Necla; (2008), “Co-Integration of the Turkish Equity Market with Grek and other European Union equity Markets”, Interantional Research Journal of Finance and Economics, (13), ss. 58-73.
  • KUCUKKAYA, Engin; (2009); “Dıversification Benefits of Including Turkish and US Stocks In A Portfolio”, The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, Autumn 2009, 5(2), ss. 1-11.
  • KWIATKOWSKI, Denis; Peter C.B. PHILLIPS; Peter SCHMIDT ve Yongcheol SHIN; (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), ss. 159–178.
  • LEVY, Haim ve Marshall SARNAT; (1970), “International Diversification of Investment Portfolios”, The American Economic Review, 60(4), ss. 668-675.
  • LUTKEPOHL, Helmut; (1985), “Comparison of Criteria for Estimating the Order of a Vector Autoregressive Process”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 6(1), ss. 35-52.
  • MANDACI, Pınar Evrim ve Dilvin TAŞKIN; (2005), “AB’ye Uyum Sürecinde İMKB’nin AB Piyasaları ile Karşılaştırılması”, MUFAD Muhasebe Finansman Dergisi, (26), ss. 127-137.
  • MANESCHIOLD, Per-Ola; (2005), "International Diversification Benefits between US, Turkish and Egyptian Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 3(2), İnternet Adresi: http://www.bepress.com/rmeef/vol3/iss2/art2, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2010.
  • MARASHDEH, Hazem; (2005), “Stock Market Integration in the MENA Region: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Aproach”, University of Wollongong Economic Working Paper Series No: 27, İnternet Adresi: www.uow.edu.au/commerce/econ /wpapers.html, Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2006.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar ve Russell SMYTH; (2005), “Cointegration of Stock Markets between New Zealand, Australia and the G7 Economies: Searching for Co-Movement Under Structural Change”, Australian Economic Papers, 44(3), ss. 231-247.
  • OZDEMIR, Zeynel Abidin ve Esin CAKAN; (2007), “Non-linear Dynamic Linkages in the International Stock Markets”, Physica A, 377(1), ss. 173–180.
  • PESARAN, Hashem M. ve Yongcheol SHIN; (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, in S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge-UK.
  • PESARAN, Hashem M.; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the analysis of Level Relationship”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), ss. 289-326.
  • SOLNIK, Bruno H.; (1974), “Why Not Diversify Internationally Rather Than Domestically”, Financial Analysts Journal, 30(4), ss. 48-54.
  • SPK (2009), SPK 2008 Faaliyet Raporu, İnternet Adresi:
  • http://www.spk.gov.tr/ displayfile.aspx?action=displayfile&pageid=
  • &fn=581.pdf&submenuheader=null, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2010.
  • SUBRAMANIAN, Ulaganathan; (2008), “Cointegration of Stock Markets in East Asia”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, (14), ss. 84-92.
  • TABAK, Benjamin Miranda ve Eduardo José Araşjo LIMA; (2002), “Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America”, Banco Central do Brasil Working Paper Series No: 56, İnternet Adresi: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps56.pdf, Erişim Tari- hi: 10.05.2010.
  • TAI, Chu-Sheng; (2007), “Market Integration and Contagion: Evidence from Asian Emerging Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets”, Emerging Markets Review, 8(4), ss. 264-283.
  • TODA, Hiro Y. ve Taku YAMAMOTO; (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66 (1-2), ss. 225-250.
  • TSPAKB 2010, “Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası Raporu 2009” İnternet Adresi: http://www.tspakb.org.tr/tr/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabid=152, Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2010.
  • WFE (2009), “World Federation of Exchanges Annual Statistics”, İnternet Adresi: http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics,Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2009.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Onur Gözbaşı This is me

Publication Date May 16, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2010 Issue: 35

Cite

APA Gözbaşı, O. (2015). İMKB İLE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERİN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARININ ETKİLEŞİMİ: EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK YAKLAŞIMI. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(35), 99-118.

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