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GENİŞLETİCİ MALİ DARALMA HİPOTEZİNİN TEMELLERİ VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Year 2010, Issue: 35, 233 - 253, 16.05.2015

Miraç İlgün

Abstract

Maliye politikasının dizaynında önemli bir sorun kamu ve özel tüketim arasındaki ilişkidir. Genişletici mali daralma hipotezi, mali daralmanın gelecekteki harcanabilir gelir ve maliye politikası konusundaki beklentiler üzerindeki etkisi nedeniyle genişletici sonuçlar doğurabileceğini öne sürmektedir. Bu çalışmada söz konusu hipotez Türkiye için 1987-2009 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak ARDL yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular kamu tüketim harcamalarının hem kısa hem uzun dönemde özel tüketim üzerindebeklenen Keynesyen etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

Genişletici Mali Daralma ARDL Sınır Testi.

References

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  • ALESINA, Alberto ve Roberto PEROTTI; (1997). “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,” Inter- national Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 44(2), ss. 210-248.
  • BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON; (1998), “Estimating And Testing Linear Mod- els With Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66, ss. 47-78.
  • BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON; (2003), “Computation And Analysis Of Mul- tiple Structural Change Models”, Journal Of Applied Economet- rics, 18, ss. 1-22.
  • BARRY, Frank ve Michael B. DEVEREUX; (1995), “The Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis: A Neo-Keynesian Analysis”, Oxford Eco- nomic Papers, 47, ss. 249-264.
  • BERGMAN, U. Michael ve Michael M. HUTCHISON; (2010), “Expansionary Fiscal Contractions: Re-evaluating the Danish Case”, International Economic Journal, 24(1), ss. 71 – 93.
  • BERTOLA, Giuseppe ve Allan DRAZEN; (1993), “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity”, The American Economic Review, 83(1), ss. 11-26.
  • BERUMENT Hakan ve Burak DOĞAN; (2004), “the Asymetric Effects of Government Spending Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Turkey”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 6(1), ss. 33-51.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier; (1985), “Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons”, The Journal of Political Economy, 93(2), ss. 223-247.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier; (1990), “Comment, on Giavazzi and Pagano (1990)”, in Blanchard, O. ve Fischer, S. (edt.), NBER Macroeconomics An- nual 1990, ss. 111-116.
  • CONSIDINE John ve David DUFFY; (2007), Tales of Expansionary Fiscal Contractions in Two European Countries: Hindsight and Foresight, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, Working Papers No: 120, ss. 1-33.
  • DICKEY, David A. ve Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), "Likelihood Ratio Statis- tics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root." Econometrica, 49, ss. 1057-1072.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. ve C.V.J. GRANGER; (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, ss.251-276.
  • ERDOĞAN, Levent; (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uy- gulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), ss. 117-132.
  • ERGÜN, Mine; (2005). Sürdürülebilir Maliye Politikası ve Maliye Politikasının Ekonomik Aktivite Üzerine Etkileri: AB Uyum Sürecindeki Türkiye Örneği ve AB Ülkeleri Deneyimleri, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı Uzmanlık Tezleri Yayın No: 2684, 124s.
  • FELDSTEIN, Martin; (1982), "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand." Journal of Monetary Economics, 9(1), ss. 1-20.
  • GIAVAZZI, Francesco ve Marco PAGANO; (1990), “Can Severe Fiscal Con- tractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries,” içinde Blanchard, O. ve Fischer, S. (edt.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, MIT Press, ss.75-122.
  • GIAVAZZI, Francesco; Tullio JAPPELLI ve Marco PAGANO; (2000). “Searching For Non-Linear Effects Of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From Industrial And Developing Countries,” European Economic Review, 44(7), ss. 1259-1289.
  • HELLWIG, Martin ve Manfred J. M. NEUMANN; (1987), “Economic Policy in Germany: Was There a Turnaround?”, Economi Policy, 2(5), ss. 103-145.
  • HJELM, Göran; (2002), “Is Private Consumption Growth Higher (Lower) dur- ing Periods Of Fiscal Contractions(Expansions)?”, Journal of Mac- roeconomics, 24, ss. 17–39.
  • HOGAN, Vincent; (2004), “Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 106(4), ss. 647- 659.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2/3), ss. 231-254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren ve Katarina JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Inference On Cointegration - With Applications To The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Sta- tistics, 52(2), ss.169-210.
  • KIGUEL, Miguel A. ve Nissan LIVIATAN; (1992), "The Business Cycle As- sociated with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations", The World Bank Economic Review, 6(2), ss. 279-305.
  • KWAN Yum K.; (2007), “The Direct Substitution Between Government and Private Consumption in East Asia”, in Fiscal Policy and Manage- ment in East Asia, NBER-EASE Book, Ito T. ve Andrew K. Rose (edt), 16, ss. 45-58.
  • LEE Junsoo ve Mark C. STRAZICICH; (2001), “Break Point Estimation And Spurious Rejections With Endogenous Unit Root Tests”, Oxford Bul- letin of Economics and Statistics, 63, ss. 535–558.
  • LINNEMANN, Ludger ve Andreas SCHABERT; (2004), “Can Fiscal Spending Stimulate Private Consumption?", Economics Letters, 82, ss. 173- 179.
  • MACKINNON, James G.; (1996), "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), ss. 601-18.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh K.; (2005), “The Saving And Investment Nexus For China: Evidence From Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37(17), ss. 1979-1990.
  • ÖZBEK, Levent ve Oya S. ERDOĞDU; (2005), “Türkiye''de Tüketim Eğilimi Ve Maliye Politikası”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 235, ss. 29-35.
  • PEROTTI, Roberto; (1999). “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad”, Quar- terly Journal of Economics. 114(4), ss. 1399-1436.
  • PERRON, Pierre; (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), ss. 1361-1401.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relation- ships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Special Issue, 16, ss. 289- 326.
  • REBELO, Sergio ve Carlos A. VEGH; (1995), "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories", NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 10, ss. 125- 174.
  • ROMER, David; (2001), Advanced Macroeconomics, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Press, New York, 651s.
  • STOCK, James H. ve Mark W. WATSON; (1988). “Testing For Common Trends”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, ss.1097-1107.
  • SUTHERLAND, Alan; (1997), “Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?”, Journal of Public Economics, 65(2), ss. 147-162.
  • TAGKALAKIS, Athanasios; (2008). “The Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Recessions and Expansions”, Journal of Public Economics, 92, ss. 1486–1508.
  • VAN AARLE, Bas ve Harry GARRETSEN; (2003), “Keynesian, non- Keynesian or no Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes? The EMU Case”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(2), ss. 213-240.
  • ZIVOT Eric ve Donald W. K. ANDREWS; (1992), “Further Evidence on The Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, ss. 251-270.

Year 2010, Issue: 35, 233 - 253, 16.05.2015

Miraç İlgün

Abstract

References

  • AFONSO Antonio; (2006), “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations In Europe New Evidence”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 675, ss. 1-51
  • ALESINA, Alberto ve Roberto PEROTTI; (1997). “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,” Inter- national Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 44(2), ss. 210-248.
  • BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON; (1998), “Estimating And Testing Linear Mod- els With Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66, ss. 47-78.
  • BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON; (2003), “Computation And Analysis Of Mul- tiple Structural Change Models”, Journal Of Applied Economet- rics, 18, ss. 1-22.
  • BARRY, Frank ve Michael B. DEVEREUX; (1995), “The Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis: A Neo-Keynesian Analysis”, Oxford Eco- nomic Papers, 47, ss. 249-264.
  • BERGMAN, U. Michael ve Michael M. HUTCHISON; (2010), “Expansionary Fiscal Contractions: Re-evaluating the Danish Case”, International Economic Journal, 24(1), ss. 71 – 93.
  • BERTOLA, Giuseppe ve Allan DRAZEN; (1993), “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity”, The American Economic Review, 83(1), ss. 11-26.
  • BERUMENT Hakan ve Burak DOĞAN; (2004), “the Asymetric Effects of Government Spending Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Turkey”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 6(1), ss. 33-51.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier; (1985), “Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons”, The Journal of Political Economy, 93(2), ss. 223-247.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier; (1990), “Comment, on Giavazzi and Pagano (1990)”, in Blanchard, O. ve Fischer, S. (edt.), NBER Macroeconomics An- nual 1990, ss. 111-116.
  • CONSIDINE John ve David DUFFY; (2007), Tales of Expansionary Fiscal Contractions in Two European Countries: Hindsight and Foresight, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, Working Papers No: 120, ss. 1-33.
  • DICKEY, David A. ve Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), "Likelihood Ratio Statis- tics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root." Econometrica, 49, ss. 1057-1072.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. ve C.V.J. GRANGER; (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, ss.251-276.
  • ERDOĞAN, Levent; (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uy- gulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), ss. 117-132.
  • ERGÜN, Mine; (2005). Sürdürülebilir Maliye Politikası ve Maliye Politikasının Ekonomik Aktivite Üzerine Etkileri: AB Uyum Sürecindeki Türkiye Örneği ve AB Ülkeleri Deneyimleri, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı Uzmanlık Tezleri Yayın No: 2684, 124s.
  • FELDSTEIN, Martin; (1982), "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand." Journal of Monetary Economics, 9(1), ss. 1-20.
  • GIAVAZZI, Francesco ve Marco PAGANO; (1990), “Can Severe Fiscal Con- tractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries,” içinde Blanchard, O. ve Fischer, S. (edt.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, MIT Press, ss.75-122.
  • GIAVAZZI, Francesco; Tullio JAPPELLI ve Marco PAGANO; (2000). “Searching For Non-Linear Effects Of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From Industrial And Developing Countries,” European Economic Review, 44(7), ss. 1259-1289.
  • HELLWIG, Martin ve Manfred J. M. NEUMANN; (1987), “Economic Policy in Germany: Was There a Turnaround?”, Economi Policy, 2(5), ss. 103-145.
  • HJELM, Göran; (2002), “Is Private Consumption Growth Higher (Lower) dur- ing Periods Of Fiscal Contractions(Expansions)?”, Journal of Mac- roeconomics, 24, ss. 17–39.
  • HOGAN, Vincent; (2004), “Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 106(4), ss. 647- 659.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2/3), ss. 231-254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren ve Katarina JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Inference On Cointegration - With Applications To The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Sta- tistics, 52(2), ss.169-210.
  • KIGUEL, Miguel A. ve Nissan LIVIATAN; (1992), "The Business Cycle As- sociated with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations", The World Bank Economic Review, 6(2), ss. 279-305.
  • KWAN Yum K.; (2007), “The Direct Substitution Between Government and Private Consumption in East Asia”, in Fiscal Policy and Manage- ment in East Asia, NBER-EASE Book, Ito T. ve Andrew K. Rose (edt), 16, ss. 45-58.
  • LEE Junsoo ve Mark C. STRAZICICH; (2001), “Break Point Estimation And Spurious Rejections With Endogenous Unit Root Tests”, Oxford Bul- letin of Economics and Statistics, 63, ss. 535–558.
  • LINNEMANN, Ludger ve Andreas SCHABERT; (2004), “Can Fiscal Spending Stimulate Private Consumption?", Economics Letters, 82, ss. 173- 179.
  • MACKINNON, James G.; (1996), "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), ss. 601-18.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh K.; (2005), “The Saving And Investment Nexus For China: Evidence From Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37(17), ss. 1979-1990.
  • ÖZBEK, Levent ve Oya S. ERDOĞDU; (2005), “Türkiye''de Tüketim Eğilimi Ve Maliye Politikası”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 235, ss. 29-35.
  • PEROTTI, Roberto; (1999). “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad”, Quar- terly Journal of Economics. 114(4), ss. 1399-1436.
  • PERRON, Pierre; (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), ss. 1361-1401.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relation- ships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Special Issue, 16, ss. 289- 326.
  • REBELO, Sergio ve Carlos A. VEGH; (1995), "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories", NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 10, ss. 125- 174.
  • ROMER, David; (2001), Advanced Macroeconomics, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Press, New York, 651s.
  • STOCK, James H. ve Mark W. WATSON; (1988). “Testing For Common Trends”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, ss.1097-1107.
  • SUTHERLAND, Alan; (1997), “Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?”, Journal of Public Economics, 65(2), ss. 147-162.
  • TAGKALAKIS, Athanasios; (2008). “The Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Recessions and Expansions”, Journal of Public Economics, 92, ss. 1486–1508.
  • VAN AARLE, Bas ve Harry GARRETSEN; (2003), “Keynesian, non- Keynesian or no Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes? The EMU Case”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(2), ss. 213-240.
  • ZIVOT Eric ve Donald W. K. ANDREWS; (1992), “Further Evidence on The Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, ss. 251-270.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Miraç İlgün This is me

Publication Date May 16, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2010 Issue: 35

Cite

APA İlgün, M. (2015). GENİŞLETİCİ MALİ DARALMA HİPOTEZİNİN TEMELLERİ VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(35), 233-253.

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