SERA GAZI SALIMININ AZALTIMINDA ALTERNATİF POLİTİKALARIN EKONOMİK MALİYETLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN GENEL DENGE ANALİZİ

Yıl 2013, Sayı: 42, 123 - 159, 18.05.2015

Mehmet Mercan Etem Karakaya

Öz

Sanayileşme süreci ile birlikte 1870’li yıllardan itibaren, fosil yakıtlarının yoğun bir şekilde kullanılmasıyla insanlık küresel ısınma ve iklim değişikliği sorunuyla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Bu sorun gelişmişlik düzeyi ne olursa olsun dünya ülkelerinin tamamını etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; genel denge analizi yardımıyla, 2008 yılından Kyoto protokolü ile gündeme gelen küresel ısınmanın başlıca sebebi olan karbondioksit salımının kontrol altına alınabilmesi için uygulanan yöntemlerden olan emisyon ticaretinin Türkiye ekonomisi açısından ekonomik maliyetlerini analiz etmek ve geleceğe yönelik uygulanması gereken ekonomi politikaları için önerilerde bulunmaktır. Çalışmada öncelikle TÜİK tarafında sınıflandırılan 59 sektörlü en son yayınlanan 2002 Input-Output tablosu, emisyon yoğunluğu fazla olan sektörler baz alınarak toplulaştırılmış ve 10 sektöre indirgenmiştir. Bu sektörler baz alınarak kurulan Genel Denge Analizi sonuçları farklı emisyon kotaları ve uluslararası karbon fiyatı değişimleri senaryoları altında hesaplanmıştır. Genel Denge Analizi sonucunda; emisyon ticareti uygulamasının karbon vergisine göre GSYİH üzerindeki refah kaybının daha az olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Genel Denge Modeli, Karbon Vergisi, Emisyon Ticareti, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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