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Year 2014, Issue: 44, 23 - 41, 18.05.2015
https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.57171

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships among the Borsa Istanbul Industrial Index (SINAI), real effective exchange rate (REER), Dollar Index (DXY) and Euro/Turkish Lira exchange rate in Turkey. Applying ARDL cointegration analysis on monthly data for the 2005:01–2013:12 period, we find that the SINAI Index is positively related to the Dollar Index and Euro/TL exchange rate. But, there is no meaningful relationship between real effective exchange rate and SINAI. The results of vector error correction model reveal that the SINAI is positively related to the real effective exchange rate while SINAI is negatively related to the Dollar Index and Euro/TL exchange rate in a statistically significant way

References

  • AGGARWAL, Raj; (1981), “Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Study of U.S. Capital Market under Floating Exchange Rates”, Akron Business and Economic Review, 12, pp. 7–12.
  • ANLAS, Tulin; (2012), “The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates on ISE-100 Index”, Journal of Applied Economics and Business Re- search, 2(1), pp. 34–45.
  • AYDEMİR, Oğuzhan and Erdal DEMİRHAN; (2009), “The Relationship be- tween Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Turkey”, In- ternational Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 23, pp. 207–215.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Raymond Chi Wing NG; (2002), “Long- run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model”, International Journal of Business and Economics, 1(2), pp. 147–155.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Ahmad SOHRABIAN; (1992), “Stock Prices and the Effective Exchange Rate of the Dollar”, Applied Eco- nomics, 24(4), pp. 459–464.
  • BROWN, Robert L; James DURBIN and Jonathan M. EVANS; (1975), “Tech- niques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), pp. 149-192.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. and Clive W.J. GRANGER; (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Economet- rica, 55, pp. 251–76.
  • FRANCK, Peter and Allan YOUNG; (1972), “Stock Price Reaction of Multina- tional Firms to Exchange Realignments”, Financial Management, 1(3), pp. 66–73.
  • GIOVANNINI, Alberto and Philippe JORION; (1987), “Interest Rates and Risk Premia in the Stock Market and in the Foreign Exchange Market”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 6, pp. 107–124.
  • GRANGER, Clive W. J; Bwo-Nung HUANG and Chin Wei YANG; (2000), “A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asian Flu”, Quarterly Review of Economics and Fi- nance, 40 (3), pp. 337–354.
  • HATIRLI, Selim A. ve Kübra ÖNDER; (2010), “Reel Döviz Kurundaki Değiş- kenliğin Türkiye’nin Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon İhracatı Üzerine Etkisinin Araştırılması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), ss. 41–54.
  • İPEKTEN, O. Berna ve Hayati AKSU; (2009), “Alternatif Yabancı Yatırım Araçlarının İMKB İndeksi Üzerine Etkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sos- yal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), ss. 413–423.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), pp. 231–254.
  • KARAGÖL, Erdal; Erman ERBAYKAL ve H. Murat ERTUĞRUL; (2007), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme İle Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Tes- ti Yaklaşımı, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8, ss. 72–80.
  • KASMAN, Saadet; (2003), “The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Causality Analysis”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(2), pp. 70–79.
  • LIN, Chien-Hsiu; (2012), “The Comovement between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in the Asian Emerging Markets”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 22, pp. 161–172.
  • NIEH, Chien-Chung and Cheng-Few LEE; (2001), “Dynamic Relationships between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates for G-7 Countries”, Quarter- ly Review of Economics and Finance, 41(4), pp. 477–490.
  • PEKKAYA, Mehmet ve M. Fatih BAYRAMOĞLU; (2008), “Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: YTL/USD, İMKB 100 ve S&P 500 Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Muhasebe ve Fi- nansman Dergisi, 38, ss. 163–176.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN and Richard SMITH; (2001), “Bo- unds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Jo- urnal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
  • SAVAŞ, İncilay ve İsmail CAN; (2011), “Euro‐Dolar Paritesi ve Reel Döviz Kuru’nun İMKB 100 Endeksi’ne Etkisi”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üni- versitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(1), ss. 323–339.
  • SAYGILI, Hülya; Mesut SAYGILI ve Gökhan YILMAZ; (2010), “Türkiye İçin Yeni Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Endeksleri”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, No: 10/12, İnternet Adresi: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/ dis- cus/2010/ WP1012.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 20.05.2014.
  • SOLNIK, Bruno; (1987), “Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Mo- dels: A Note”, The Journal of Finance, 42(1), pp. 141–149.
  • STAVAREK, Daniel; (2004), “Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions”, MPRA Paper, No. 7297, Internet Address: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7297/, Date Of Access: 15.05.2014.
  • ŞİMŞEK, Muammer; (2004), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kurunu Belirleyen Uzun Dönemli Etkenler”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilim- ler Dergisi, 5(2), ss. 1-23.
  • TURAN, Zübeyir; (2011), “İMKB Ulusal-100 Endeksi ile ABD Doları Kuru ve Tüfe Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi (1986: 01-2008: 12)”, Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamaları Dergisi, 2, ss. 91–106.
  • TÜRSOY, Turgut; Nil GÜNSEL and Husam RJOUB; (2008), “Macroeconomic Factors, the APT and the Istanbul Stock Market”, International Rese- arch Journal of Finance & Economics, 22, pp. 49–57.
  • YILMAZ, Ömer; Bener GÜNGÖR ve Vedat KAYA; (2006), “Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik”, İMKB Dergisi, 9(34), ss. 1–16.
  • ZHAO, Hua; (2010), “Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate and Stock Price: Evidence from China”, Research in International Business and Finance, 24, pp. 103–112.

DÖVİZ KURLARI İLE BIST SANAYİ ENDEKSİ ARASINDAKİ EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİ: BİR ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2014, Issue: 44, 23 - 41, 18.05.2015
https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.57171

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Borsa İstanbul Sanayi Endeksi (SINAI) ile Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Endeksi (REDKE), Euro/TL Döviz Kuru ve Dolar Endeksi (DXY) arasında kısa ve uzun dönemli denge ilişkilerinin varlığı tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Ocak 2005-Aralık 2013 dönemi arasındaki aylık verilerden hareketle, ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımının sonuçlarına göre, SINAI Endeksi ile DXY ve Euro/TL kuru arasında uzun dönemde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modelinin sonuçlarına göre SINAI endeksi ile diğer tüm değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. REDKE ile SINAI endeksi arasındaki ilişkinin yönü pozitif iken DXY ve EURO ile SINAI endeksi arasında ilişkinin yönü negatiftir. 

References

  • AGGARWAL, Raj; (1981), “Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Study of U.S. Capital Market under Floating Exchange Rates”, Akron Business and Economic Review, 12, pp. 7–12.
  • ANLAS, Tulin; (2012), “The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates on ISE-100 Index”, Journal of Applied Economics and Business Re- search, 2(1), pp. 34–45.
  • AYDEMİR, Oğuzhan and Erdal DEMİRHAN; (2009), “The Relationship be- tween Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Turkey”, In- ternational Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 23, pp. 207–215.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Raymond Chi Wing NG; (2002), “Long- run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model”, International Journal of Business and Economics, 1(2), pp. 147–155.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Ahmad SOHRABIAN; (1992), “Stock Prices and the Effective Exchange Rate of the Dollar”, Applied Eco- nomics, 24(4), pp. 459–464.
  • BROWN, Robert L; James DURBIN and Jonathan M. EVANS; (1975), “Tech- niques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), pp. 149-192.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. and Clive W.J. GRANGER; (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Economet- rica, 55, pp. 251–76.
  • FRANCK, Peter and Allan YOUNG; (1972), “Stock Price Reaction of Multina- tional Firms to Exchange Realignments”, Financial Management, 1(3), pp. 66–73.
  • GIOVANNINI, Alberto and Philippe JORION; (1987), “Interest Rates and Risk Premia in the Stock Market and in the Foreign Exchange Market”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 6, pp. 107–124.
  • GRANGER, Clive W. J; Bwo-Nung HUANG and Chin Wei YANG; (2000), “A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asian Flu”, Quarterly Review of Economics and Fi- nance, 40 (3), pp. 337–354.
  • HATIRLI, Selim A. ve Kübra ÖNDER; (2010), “Reel Döviz Kurundaki Değiş- kenliğin Türkiye’nin Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon İhracatı Üzerine Etkisinin Araştırılması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), ss. 41–54.
  • İPEKTEN, O. Berna ve Hayati AKSU; (2009), “Alternatif Yabancı Yatırım Araçlarının İMKB İndeksi Üzerine Etkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sos- yal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1), ss. 413–423.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), pp. 231–254.
  • KARAGÖL, Erdal; Erman ERBAYKAL ve H. Murat ERTUĞRUL; (2007), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme İle Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Tes- ti Yaklaşımı, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8, ss. 72–80.
  • KASMAN, Saadet; (2003), “The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Causality Analysis”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(2), pp. 70–79.
  • LIN, Chien-Hsiu; (2012), “The Comovement between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in the Asian Emerging Markets”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 22, pp. 161–172.
  • NIEH, Chien-Chung and Cheng-Few LEE; (2001), “Dynamic Relationships between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates for G-7 Countries”, Quarter- ly Review of Economics and Finance, 41(4), pp. 477–490.
  • PEKKAYA, Mehmet ve M. Fatih BAYRAMOĞLU; (2008), “Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: YTL/USD, İMKB 100 ve S&P 500 Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Muhasebe ve Fi- nansman Dergisi, 38, ss. 163–176.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN and Richard SMITH; (2001), “Bo- unds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Jo- urnal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
  • SAVAŞ, İncilay ve İsmail CAN; (2011), “Euro‐Dolar Paritesi ve Reel Döviz Kuru’nun İMKB 100 Endeksi’ne Etkisi”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üni- versitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(1), ss. 323–339.
  • SAYGILI, Hülya; Mesut SAYGILI ve Gökhan YILMAZ; (2010), “Türkiye İçin Yeni Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Endeksleri”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, No: 10/12, İnternet Adresi: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/ dis- cus/2010/ WP1012.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 20.05.2014.
  • SOLNIK, Bruno; (1987), “Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Mo- dels: A Note”, The Journal of Finance, 42(1), pp. 141–149.
  • STAVAREK, Daniel; (2004), “Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions”, MPRA Paper, No. 7297, Internet Address: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7297/, Date Of Access: 15.05.2014.
  • ŞİMŞEK, Muammer; (2004), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kurunu Belirleyen Uzun Dönemli Etkenler”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilim- ler Dergisi, 5(2), ss. 1-23.
  • TURAN, Zübeyir; (2011), “İMKB Ulusal-100 Endeksi ile ABD Doları Kuru ve Tüfe Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi (1986: 01-2008: 12)”, Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamaları Dergisi, 2, ss. 91–106.
  • TÜRSOY, Turgut; Nil GÜNSEL and Husam RJOUB; (2008), “Macroeconomic Factors, the APT and the Istanbul Stock Market”, International Rese- arch Journal of Finance & Economics, 22, pp. 49–57.
  • YILMAZ, Ömer; Bener GÜNGÖR ve Vedat KAYA; (2006), “Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik”, İMKB Dergisi, 9(34), ss. 1–16.
  • ZHAO, Hua; (2010), “Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate and Stock Price: Evidence from China”, Research in International Business and Finance, 24, pp. 103–112.
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Veli Akel This is me

Sümeyra Gazel This is me

Publication Date May 18, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2014 Issue: 44

Cite

APA Akel, V., & Gazel, S. (2015). DÖVİZ KURLARI İLE BIST SANAYİ ENDEKSİ ARASINDAKİ EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİ: BİR ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(44), 23-41. https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.57171

Cited By






















































Borsa İstanbul Sektör Endeksleri İle Döviz Kurları Arasındaki İlişkilerin İncelenmesi: ARDL Modeli
Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
Dr. Sinem EYÜBOĞLU
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.332352



Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal ve Ticari AçıklıkÇevresel Kalite İlişkisi: Ampirik Uygulama
Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
Elif MUDAM
https://doi.org/10.31454/usb.419833





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