Türkiye’nin Demiryolu Yük Taşımacılığı Talebinin Zaman Serisi Analizi ile Tahmini

Year 2021, Issue: 58, 137 - 154, 30.04.2021

Özlem Karadağ Albayrak

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.753557

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Taşıma modları içinde yatırım maliyeti yüksek olmasına rağmen kütlesel taşımada navlun
maliyeti oldukça düşük olan mod demiryolu taşımacılığıdır. Demiryolunda taşınacak yük miktarının
tahmin edilmesi etkin planlama yapılmasını sağlar. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de demiryolu yük
taşımacılığına oluşacak talep modeli 1978-2018 arasındaki yıllık zaman serisi verilerini kullanarak
analiz edilmiştir. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi ve varyans hata düzeltme modeli ile tahminin
belirleyicilerinin kısa ve uzun dönem esneklikleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre
demiryolu yük talebinin en önemli belirleyicisi navlun oranı olmuştur. Demiryolu yük talebinin
navlun oranına göre uzun dönem ve kısa dönem esneklikleri - 0,181 ve -0,184 ile çok yakındır.
Demiryolu yükü talebinin uzun dönemli dış ticaret hacmi esnekliği anlamlı ve pozitiftir, yani ticaret
hacmi arttıkça demiryoluna oluşacak yük talebi artacaktır. Fakat demiryolu yükü talebinin uzun
dönemli Gayrisafi Katma Değer ve Yakıt Fiyatı esneklikleri anlamlı ve negatiftir. Yani bu
değişkenlerdeki artık demiryolu yük talebini azaltacaktır. Hata düzeltme modeline göre demiryolu
yük talebindeki herhangi bir son dönem sapmasının 55%’i bir yıl içinde düzeltilmekte ve uzun dönem
denge ilişkisi eski haline gelebilmektedir.

Keywords

Demiryolu Yük Taşımacılığı Talebi, , VECM, , Johansen Eşbütünleşme., GVA

Forecasting of Turkey’s Demand for Railway Freight Transportation with Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Among the transportation modes,it is the type of railway transportation that has a very low
freight cost in mass transportation, although the investment cost is high. Estimating the amount of
load to be carried on the rail provides effective planning for managers. This study was analyzed using
annual time series data between 1978-2018 will consist of rail freight demand in Turkey. The short
and long term flexibility of the estimation was estimated with the Johansen cointegration analysis and
error correction model. According to the results obtained, the most important determinant of the rail
freight demand was the freight rate. According to the freight rate of the rail freight demand, the longterm and short-term elasticities are almost the same as - 0.181 and -0.184. The long-term trade
volume flexibility of the demand for rail freight is meaningful and positive, meaning that the demand
for the rail will increase as the trade volume increases. However, the long-term Gross Value Added
and Fuel Price elasticities of the demand for the railway load are significant and negative. In other
words, these variables will now reduce the demand for rail freight. According to the error correction
model, 55% of any last-term deviation in the rail freight demand is corrected within a year and the
long-term balance relationship can be restored..

Keywords

Rail Freight Transport Demand, VECM, Johansen Co-integration.

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