Abstract
Çalışmanın amacı, Çin ile Türkiye arasındaki ticarette gelir ve fiyat etkisini analiz etmektir. Ayrıca Türkiye'nin dış ticaretinde stratejik öneme sahip bu ülke ile ticaret yapmanın,
Türkiye'nin dış ticaret açığı üzerindeki muhtemel etkilerini tartışmaktır. Dağıtılmış OtoregresifGecikmeli Model (ARDL) ekonometrik zaman serisi yönteminin tercih edildiği çalışmada, 1998Q1-
2018Q4 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Verilerin tamamı analizde logaritmik değerleri ile kullanılmıştır. Gerçekleştirilen birim kök testi sonuçları, bazı değişkenlerin düzey değerlerinde durağan olduğunu, bazılarının ise birim kök içerdiğini göstermiştir. Ancak ilk farkları alındığında hepsinin durağan hale geldiği görülmüştür. Her iki model için yapılan eşbütünleşme testleri sonucunda elde edilen F istatistikleri, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir entegrasyon ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Uzun dönem katsayılarının sonuçları, Türkiye'nin Çin'e yaptığı ihracatta gelir etkisinin güçlü, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve ekonomik beklentilerle uyumlu olduğunu göstermiştir. Öte yandan, Türkiye'nin Çin'den yaptığı ithalatta hem fiyat hem de gelir etkisinin güçlü, istatiksel olarak anlamlı ve ekonomik beklentilerle uyumlu olduğu görülmüştür.
Thanks
Hazırlanan makale ve devir sözleşmesi ekli dosyada yer almaktadır. Teşekkür eder iyi çalışmalar dilerim.
References
- Arize, A. C. (1994). Cointegration Test of a Long-Run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance. Internatıonal Economıc Journal, 8(3), 1-9.
- Gülmez, A. (2015). Türkiye’de Dış Finansman Kaynakları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Ardl Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(2), 139-152.
- Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O. & Öğünç, F. (2019). Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review,19, 9-19.
Econometric Analysis of Foreign Trade Between Turkey and China Within The Scope of İncome and Price Elasticities
Abstract
The aim of the study is to analyze the income and price impact in trade between China and Turkey. In addition, to trade with this country which has a strategic importance in Turkey's foreign trade, to discuss the possible impact on Turkey's trade deficit. In the study where Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric time series method was preferred, quarterly data of 1998Q1-2018Q4 period was used. All of the data were used in the analysis with their logarithmic values. The unit root test results performed showed that some variables are stationary in level values, while others contain unit roots. However, it has been observed that when the first differences are taken, they all become stable. F statistics obtained as a result of cointegration tests performed for both models showed that there is a long run integration relationship between variables. The results of long run coefficients showed that the impact of income in Turkey's exports to China is strong, stastically significant and compatible with economic expectations. On the other hand, both of price and income effects at Turkey's imports from China has been seen strong, istastically significant and compatible with economic expectations.
References
- Arize, A. C. (1994). Cointegration Test of a Long-Run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance. Internatıonal Economıc Journal, 8(3), 1-9.
- Gülmez, A. (2015). Türkiye’de Dış Finansman Kaynakları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Ardl Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(2), 139-152.
- Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O. & Öğünç, F. (2019). Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review,19, 9-19.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | April 30, 2021 |
| Acceptance Date | February 22, 2021 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2021 Issue: 58 |
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