Abstract
In this study, we examine the relationship between housing prices and its macroeconomic determinants in the Turkish economy over the period 2010-2020. The ARDL bounds testing to
cointegration and Granger Causality test procedures are employed in the empirical part of the study. The empirical results show that there is a significant negative relationship between housing interest rates and housing prices. Besides, it was observed that the appreciation of the US dollar against the Turkish Lira and the increase in the employment level had an increasing effect on housing prices. As a result of our research, we conclude that country-specific facts affect the macroeconomic determinants’ ability to explain the changes in housing prices.
Keywords
Housing prices Macroeconomic determinants Turkey ARDL Bounds Testing Granger Causality Test Granger Causality Test,
References
- Adams, Z. and Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets, Journal of Housing Economics, 19(1), 38-50.
- Apergis, N. and Rezitis, A. (2003). Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU, Applied economics letters, 10(9), 561-565.
- Badurlar, Ö, İ. (2008). Türkiye'de Konut Fiyatları ile Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 223-238.
- Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2), 179-197.
- Chen, M. C., Tsai, I. C., and Chang, C. O. (2007). House prices and household income: Do they move apart? Evidence from Taiwan, Habitat International, 31(2), 243-256.
- Coskun, Y., & Jadevicius, A. (2017). Is there a housing bubble in Turkey?. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(1), 48-73.
- Coskun, Y., Seven, U., Ertugrul, H. M., and Alp, A. (2020). Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey, Housing Studies, 35(1), 50-86.
- Dilber, İ. and Sertkaya, Y. (2016). 2008 Finansal Krizi Sonrası Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarının Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Analiz, Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(1), 11-29.
- Duffie, D. and Garleanu, N. (2001). Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations, Financial analysts journal, 57(1), 41-59.
- Égert, B. and Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinants of house prices in central and eastern Europe, Comparative economic studies, 49(3), 367-388.
- Englund, P. and Ioannides, Y. M. (1997). House price dynamics: an international empirical perspective, Journal of housing economics, 6(2), 119-136.
- Gallin, J. (2006). The long‐run relationship between house prices and income: evidence from local housing markets, Real Estate Economics, 34(3), 417-438.
- Gattini, L. and Hiebert, P. (2010). Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals, ECB Working Paper, No. 1249
- Goodhart, C. and Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(1), 180-205.
- Harris, J. C. (1989). The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2(1), 47-60.
- Hull, J., Predescu, M., and White, A. (2004). The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements, Journal of banking & finance, 28(11), 2789-2811.
- Kim, S. W. and Bhattacharya, R. (2009). Regional housing prices in the USA: an empirical investigation of nonlinearity, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38(4), 443-460.
- Kok, S. H., Ismail, N. W., and Lee, C. (2018). The sources of house price changes in Malaysia, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 11(2), 335-355
- Kolcu, F. and Yamak, N. (2018). Gelir ve faiz oranlarının konut fiyatları üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemdeki etkileri, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 141-152.
- Lastrapes, W. D. (2002). The real price of housing and money supply shocks: time series evidence and theoretical simulations, Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 40-74.
- Lebe, F. and Akbaş, Y. E. (2014). Türkiye’nin konut talebinin analizi: 1970-2011, Ataturk University Journal Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 28(1).
- McQuinn, K., & O'Reilly, G. (2008). Assessing the role of income and interest rates in determining house prices, Economic modelling, 25(3), 377-390.
- Nneji, O., Brooks, C., and Ward, C. W. (2013). House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes, Economic Modelling, 32, 172-178.
- Panagiotidis, T., and Printzis, P. (2016). On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: A VECM approach, International Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), 387-409.
- Peseran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, Econometric Society Monographs, 31, 371-413.
- Peseran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Reichert, A. K. (1990). The impact of interest rates, income, and employment upon regional housing prices, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3(4), 373-391.
- Sari, R., Ewing, B. T., and Aydin, B. (2007). Macroeconomic variables and the housing market in Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43(5), 5-19.
- Solak, A. O. and Kabaday, B. (2016). Bounds Testing Approaches to Housing Demand in Turkey: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(3).
- Tsatsaronis, K. and Zhu, H. (2004). What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence, BIS Quarterly Review, March.
- Uysal, D. and Yiğit, M. (2016). Türkiye’de konut talebinin belirleyicileri (1970-2015): Ampirik bir çalışma, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Dergisi, 19(1), 185-209.
- Yıldırım, M. O. and İvrendi, M. (2017). House prices and the macroeconomic environment in Turkey: The examination of a dynamic relationship, Economic Annals, 62(215), 81-110.
Abstract
Bu çalışmada, 2010-2020 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisinde konut fiyatları ile makroekonomik belirleyicileri arasındaki ilişkiyi inceliyoruz. Çalışmanın ampirik kısmında, ARDL
eş bütünleşme sınır testi ve Granger Nedensellik test prosedürleri kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, konut faiz oranları ile konut fiyatları arasında anlamlı bir negatif ilişki olduğunu
göstermiştir. Ayrıca ABD dolarının Türk Lirası karşısında değer kazanmasının ve istihdam düzeyindeki artışın konut fiyatlarını artırıcı yönde etkilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Araştırmamız
sonucunda ülkeye özgü farklılıkların, makroekonomik belirleyicilerin konut fiyatlarındaki değişimi açıklamadaki gücünü etkilediği sonucuna ulaştık.
Keywords
Konut fiyatları Makroekonomik Belirleyiciler Türkiye Granger Nedensellik Testi ARDL Sınır Testi
References
- Adams, Z. and Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets, Journal of Housing Economics, 19(1), 38-50.
- Apergis, N. and Rezitis, A. (2003). Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU, Applied economics letters, 10(9), 561-565.
- Badurlar, Ö, İ. (2008). Türkiye'de Konut Fiyatları ile Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 223-238.
- Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2), 179-197.
- Chen, M. C., Tsai, I. C., and Chang, C. O. (2007). House prices and household income: Do they move apart? Evidence from Taiwan, Habitat International, 31(2), 243-256.
- Coskun, Y., & Jadevicius, A. (2017). Is there a housing bubble in Turkey?. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(1), 48-73.
- Coskun, Y., Seven, U., Ertugrul, H. M., and Alp, A. (2020). Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey, Housing Studies, 35(1), 50-86.
- Dilber, İ. and Sertkaya, Y. (2016). 2008 Finansal Krizi Sonrası Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarının Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Analiz, Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(1), 11-29.
- Duffie, D. and Garleanu, N. (2001). Risk and valuation of collateralized debt obligations, Financial analysts journal, 57(1), 41-59.
- Égert, B. and Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinants of house prices in central and eastern Europe, Comparative economic studies, 49(3), 367-388.
- Englund, P. and Ioannides, Y. M. (1997). House price dynamics: an international empirical perspective, Journal of housing economics, 6(2), 119-136.
- Gallin, J. (2006). The long‐run relationship between house prices and income: evidence from local housing markets, Real Estate Economics, 34(3), 417-438.
- Gattini, L. and Hiebert, P. (2010). Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals, ECB Working Paper, No. 1249
- Goodhart, C. and Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(1), 180-205.
- Harris, J. C. (1989). The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2(1), 47-60.
- Hull, J., Predescu, M., and White, A. (2004). The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements, Journal of banking & finance, 28(11), 2789-2811.
- Kim, S. W. and Bhattacharya, R. (2009). Regional housing prices in the USA: an empirical investigation of nonlinearity, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38(4), 443-460.
- Kok, S. H., Ismail, N. W., and Lee, C. (2018). The sources of house price changes in Malaysia, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 11(2), 335-355
- Kolcu, F. and Yamak, N. (2018). Gelir ve faiz oranlarının konut fiyatları üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemdeki etkileri, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 141-152.
- Lastrapes, W. D. (2002). The real price of housing and money supply shocks: time series evidence and theoretical simulations, Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 40-74.
- Lebe, F. and Akbaş, Y. E. (2014). Türkiye’nin konut talebinin analizi: 1970-2011, Ataturk University Journal Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 28(1).
- McQuinn, K., & O'Reilly, G. (2008). Assessing the role of income and interest rates in determining house prices, Economic modelling, 25(3), 377-390.
- Nneji, O., Brooks, C., and Ward, C. W. (2013). House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes, Economic Modelling, 32, 172-178.
- Panagiotidis, T., and Printzis, P. (2016). On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: A VECM approach, International Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), 387-409.
- Peseran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, Econometric Society Monographs, 31, 371-413.
- Peseran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Reichert, A. K. (1990). The impact of interest rates, income, and employment upon regional housing prices, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3(4), 373-391.
- Sari, R., Ewing, B. T., and Aydin, B. (2007). Macroeconomic variables and the housing market in Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 43(5), 5-19.
- Solak, A. O. and Kabaday, B. (2016). Bounds Testing Approaches to Housing Demand in Turkey: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(3).
- Tsatsaronis, K. and Zhu, H. (2004). What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence, BIS Quarterly Review, March.
- Uysal, D. and Yiğit, M. (2016). Türkiye’de konut talebinin belirleyicileri (1970-2015): Ampirik bir çalışma, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Dergisi, 19(1), 185-209.
- Yıldırım, M. O. and İvrendi, M. (2017). House prices and the macroeconomic environment in Turkey: The examination of a dynamic relationship, Economic Annals, 62(215), 81-110.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | April 30, 2021 |
| Acceptance Date | January 29, 2021 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2021 Issue: 58 |
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