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Covıd-19 Enflasyon Sepeti

Year 2021, Issue: 60, 735 - 753, 25.12.2021

Volkan Kaymaz

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.853704
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Enflasyon, bireylerin satın alma gücündeki değişimi yansıtmaktadır. Pandemi sürecinde talep farklılaşması ve arz kısıtlamaları genel fiyat düzeyini etkilemektedir. Gelişmiş ülkelerde Covid-19 salgınının başladığı ilk aylarda deflasyonist baskı ortaya çıkmıştır; ancak Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonda oynaklıklar görülmüştür. Geleneksel enflasyon hesabı, tüketicilerin harcama alışkanlıklarındaki değişimi, hızlıca dikkate alamamakta ve bir önceki yılın harcama ağırlıklarını baz alarak hesaplanmaktadır. Bu nedenle TÜFE’deki değişimler hane halkı talebinin, çeşitli mal ve hizmetlere göre hızlıca değiştiği dönemlerde satın alma gücündeki değişimi yeterince açıklamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada tüketicilerin harcama grupları aylık olarak belirlenerek harcama gruplarının bütçe içerisindeki payı hesaplanmakta ve alternatif bir enflasyon hesabı yapılarak pandeminin enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Sonuçlar pandeminin ilk dönemlerinde, hesaplanan enflasyon oranlarının geleneksel yöntemle hesaplanan enflasyon oranlarına kıyasla daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir; ancak pandemi tedbirlerinin azaldığı süreçte geleneksel tüketim kalıplarının geri dönmeye başlamasıyla iki enflasyon oranının birbirine yaklaşmıştır.

Keywords

Enflasyon Tüketim harcamaları COVID-19 TÜFE

Thanks

Sayın editör ve hakemlere gelecek katkılarından ötürü şimdiden teşekkür ederim.

References

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N. ve Furceri, D. (2018). The World Uncertainty Index. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275033
  • Alberto C. (2020). Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets. NBER Working Paper. 27352. DOI 10.3386/w27352
  • Armantier, O., Koşar, G., Pomerantz, R. Skandalis, D., Smith, K. T., Topa, G., ve Van der Klaauw, H. W., (2020). How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic. FRB of New York Staff Report. No. 949. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3742949
  • Baker, S, R,. Farrokhnia R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M. ve Yannelis, C. (2020). How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies. 10(4), 834–862, https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa009
  • Barua, S. (2020). Understanding Coronanomics: The Economic Implications of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566477
  • Binder C. (2017). Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics. 90, 1-12.
  • Carvalho, V. M., Garcia, J., Hansen, S., Ortiz, A., Rodrigo, T., Mora, J. R., ve Ruiz, J., (2020). Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data. Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series. 2020/16.
  • Chronopoulos, D. K., Lukas, M. ve Wilson, J. O. S. (2020). Consumer Spending responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment of Great Britain. Working Paper, University of St. Andrews.
  • Grohol, J.M. (2020). Panic Buying: The Psychology of Hoarding Toilet Paper, Beans, & Soup. [Blog]. Erişim adresi https://psychcentral.com/blog/panic-buying-the-psychology-of-hoarding-toilet-paper-beans-soup/ İstanbul Sanayi Odası. (2020). İstanbul Sanayi Odası Türkiye PMI® İmalat Sanayi İstanbul Sanayi Odası - İSO Türkiye İmalat PMI. Erişim adresi https://iso.org.tr
  • Jaravel, X., ve O’Connell, M. (2020). Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown. CEPR Discussion Paper. DP14880.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London. Macmillan.
  • Laato, S., Laato, Islam, A.K.M., Farooq, A., ve Dhir, A. (2020). Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. 57 102224
  • Larson, L., ve H. Shin. (2018). Fear during natural disaster: Its impact on perceptions of shopping convenience and shopping behavior. Services Marketing Quarterly. 39 (4), 293–309. doi: 10.1080/15332969.2018.1514795. Marshall, R. (2020). COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated? IMF Working Paper. WP/20/224
  • Rainey, R., ve N. McCaskill. (2020). No words for this: 10 million workers file jobless claims in just two weeks. Politico. Erişim Adresi https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-pandemic-161081
  • Seiler, P. (2020). Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data. Seiler Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 156(13).
  • Shapiro, A. H. (2020). Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19. FRBSF Economic Letter.
  • TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. (2020). Banka Kartı ve Kredi Kartı Harcama Tutarı. Erişim Adresi https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/DataGroupLink/5/bie_kkhartut/tr
  • UNCTAD (2020). Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak on Global FDI. Investment Trends Monitor, Special Issue – March 2020. United Nations Conference on Trade and Investment. Erişim Adresi. https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diae_gitm34_coronavirus_8march2020.pdf
  • Ward, C., (2020). Consumer Behavior and COVID-19. Business Education Innovation Journal. 12(1).
  • World Economic Forum (2020). This is how coronavirus could affect the travel and tourism industry. Erişim adresi. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-travel-coronavirus-covid19-jobs-pandemic-tourism-aviation/ World Health Organization (2003). Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of SARS

Covid-19 Inflation Basket

Year 2021, Issue: 60, 735 - 753, 25.12.2021

Volkan Kaymaz

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.853704
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Inflation reflects the change in the purchasing power of individuals. During the pandemic process, demand differentiation and supply restrictions affect the general price level. In the first months of the Covid-19 epidemic in developed countries, deflationary pressure emerged; however, volatility in inflation has been observed in developing countries such as Turkey. The traditional inflation calculation does not take into account the change in consumers' spending habits quickly and is calculated on the basis of the previous year's expenditure weights. Therefore, changes in CPI do not
adequately explain the change in purchasing power during periods when household demand changes rapidly according to various goods and services. In this study, the expenditure groups of consumers are determined on a monthly basis, the share of expenditure groups in the budget is calculated, and it is aimed to examine the effects of the pandemic on inflation by making an alternative inflation calculation. The results show that in the early stages of the pandemic, the calculated inflation rates were higher than the traditionally calculated inflation rates; however, it shows that the two inflation rates approached each other as the traditional consumption patterns started to return in the process of reducing the pandemic measures and adapting to the new. normal.

References

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N. ve Furceri, D. (2018). The World Uncertainty Index. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275033
  • Alberto C. (2020). Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets. NBER Working Paper. 27352. DOI 10.3386/w27352
  • Armantier, O., Koşar, G., Pomerantz, R. Skandalis, D., Smith, K. T., Topa, G., ve Van der Klaauw, H. W., (2020). How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic. FRB of New York Staff Report. No. 949. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3742949
  • Baker, S, R,. Farrokhnia R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M. ve Yannelis, C. (2020). How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies. 10(4), 834–862, https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa009
  • Barua, S. (2020). Understanding Coronanomics: The Economic Implications of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566477
  • Binder C. (2017). Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics. 90, 1-12.
  • Carvalho, V. M., Garcia, J., Hansen, S., Ortiz, A., Rodrigo, T., Mora, J. R., ve Ruiz, J., (2020). Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data. Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series. 2020/16.
  • Chronopoulos, D. K., Lukas, M. ve Wilson, J. O. S. (2020). Consumer Spending responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment of Great Britain. Working Paper, University of St. Andrews.
  • Grohol, J.M. (2020). Panic Buying: The Psychology of Hoarding Toilet Paper, Beans, & Soup. [Blog]. Erişim adresi https://psychcentral.com/blog/panic-buying-the-psychology-of-hoarding-toilet-paper-beans-soup/ İstanbul Sanayi Odası. (2020). İstanbul Sanayi Odası Türkiye PMI® İmalat Sanayi İstanbul Sanayi Odası - İSO Türkiye İmalat PMI. Erişim adresi https://iso.org.tr
  • Jaravel, X., ve O’Connell, M. (2020). Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown. CEPR Discussion Paper. DP14880.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London. Macmillan.
  • Laato, S., Laato, Islam, A.K.M., Farooq, A., ve Dhir, A. (2020). Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. 57 102224
  • Larson, L., ve H. Shin. (2018). Fear during natural disaster: Its impact on perceptions of shopping convenience and shopping behavior. Services Marketing Quarterly. 39 (4), 293–309. doi: 10.1080/15332969.2018.1514795. Marshall, R. (2020). COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated? IMF Working Paper. WP/20/224
  • Rainey, R., ve N. McCaskill. (2020). No words for this: 10 million workers file jobless claims in just two weeks. Politico. Erişim Adresi https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-pandemic-161081
  • Seiler, P. (2020). Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data. Seiler Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 156(13).
  • Shapiro, A. H. (2020). Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19. FRBSF Economic Letter.
  • TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. (2020). Banka Kartı ve Kredi Kartı Harcama Tutarı. Erişim Adresi https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/DataGroupLink/5/bie_kkhartut/tr
  • UNCTAD (2020). Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak on Global FDI. Investment Trends Monitor, Special Issue – March 2020. United Nations Conference on Trade and Investment. Erişim Adresi. https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diae_gitm34_coronavirus_8march2020.pdf
  • Ward, C., (2020). Consumer Behavior and COVID-19. Business Education Innovation Journal. 12(1).
  • World Economic Forum (2020). This is how coronavirus could affect the travel and tourism industry. Erişim adresi. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-travel-coronavirus-covid19-jobs-pandemic-tourism-aviation/ World Health Organization (2003). Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of SARS
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Volkan Kaymaz 0000-0001-7556-9507

Publication Date December 25, 2021
Acceptance Date October 22, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Issue: 60

Cite

APA Kaymaz, V. (2021). Covıd-19 Enflasyon Sepeti. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(60), 735-753. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.853704

Cited By

COVID-19 Pandemisi Sürecinde Türkiye’de Tüketici Fiyat Endeksindeki Değişimin İncelenmesi
HUMANITAS - Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.20304/humanitas.1240815
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