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Türkiye’de Politik İstikrarın Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlara Etkisi: Fourier ADL Eşbütünleşme Testinden Kanıtlar

Year 2021, Issue: 60, 571 - 587, 25.12.2021

Doç. Dr. Oktay Kızılkaya , Oktay Kızılkaya

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.951065
Cited By: 2

Abstract

Araştırmacılar için doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini etkileyen faktörlere yoğunlaşmak motive edici bir konu olmaya devam etmektedir. Literatürde politik istikrar düzeyi, yabancı yatırımları çekmeyi amaçlayan ev sahibi ülkeler için önemli bir konum avantajı olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de politik istikrar ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri arasındaki ilişkiyi
ampirik olarak test etmek ve bu ilişkiyi destekleyen daha iyi sonuçlar elde etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1998Q1-2019Q4 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık özelliği ADF ve Fourier ADF birim kök testleri kullanılarak sınanmıştır. İlk farklılıkları alındığında tüm değişkenlerin durağan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi ile araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye’de politik istikrar ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında pozitif bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik bulgular çerçevesinde Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik politika önerileri sunulmuştur.

Keywords

Fourier ADF Fourier ADL Politik istikrar DYY Türkiye.

Thanks

Teşekkür ederiz. İyi çalışmalar.

References

  • Adams, S. (2009). Foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of policy modeling, 31(6), 939-949.
  • Agarwal, J. ve Feils, D. (2007). Political risk and the internationalization of firms: An empirical study of Canadian‐based export and FDI firms. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences/Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l'Administration, 24(3), 165-181.
  • Arslan, K. ve Furtana, T. E. (2020). Political Risk and Turkey 2002-2019. International Journal of Commerce and Finance, 6(2), 218-225.
  • Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M., ve Sapsford, D. (1999). Foreign direct investment as an engine of growth. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 8(1), 27-40.
  • Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., ve Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
  • Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., Lundblad, C. T., ve Siegel, S. (2014). Political risk spreads. Journal of International Business Studies, 45(4), 471-493.
  • Biglaiser, G. ve DeRouen Jr, K. (2006). Economic reforms and inflows of foreign direct investment in Latin America. Latin American research review, 51-75.
  • Blonigen, B. A. ve Piger, J. (2014). Determinants of foreign direct investment. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 47(3), 775-812.
  • Busse, M. ve Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European journal of political economy, 23(2), 397-415.
  • Carmignani, F. (2003). Political instability, uncertainty and economics. Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(1), 1-54.
  • Christopoulos, D. K. ve León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
  • De Mello, L. R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford economic papers, 51(1), 133-151.
  • Dutta, N. ve Roy, S. (2011). Foreign direct investment, financial development and political risks. The Journal of Developing Areas, 303-327.
  • Echandi, R., Nimac, I. A. ve Chun, D. (2019). Political risk and policy responses (No. 144312, pp. 1-104). The World Bank.
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
  • Feeny, S., Iamsiraroj, S. ve McGillivray, M. (2014). Growth and foreign direct investment in the Pacific Island countries. Economic Modelling, 37, 332-339.
  • Gakpa, L. L. (2020). Political instability, FDI and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: evidence from modelling dynamic simultaneous equations. AERC.
  • Giambona, E., Graham, J. R. ve Harvey, C. R. (2017). The management of political risk. Journal of International Business Studies, 48(4), 523-533.
  • Jensen, N. (2008). Political risk, democratic institutions, and foreign direct investment. The Journal of Politics, 70(4), 1040-1052.
  • Jiménez, A. (2011). Political risk as a determinant of Southern European FDI in neighboring developing countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(4), 59-74.
  • Khan, M. M. ve Akbar, M. I. (2013). The impact of political risk on foreign direct investment. MPRA Paper, No. 47283.
  • Kızılkaya, O. (2017). Effect of Corruption on FDI in Transition Economies: evidence from causality analysis. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (19), 25-42.
  • Kim, H. (2010). Political stability and foreign direct investment. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(3), 59-71.
  • King, T., Loncan, T. ve Khan, Z. (2021). Investment, leverage and political risk: Evidence from project-level FDI. Journal of Corporate Finance, 101873.
  • Krifa-Schneider, H. ve Matei, I. (2010). Business climate, political risk and FDI in developing countries: Evidence from panel data. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(5), 54-65.
  • Kobrin, S. J. (1979). Political risk: A review and reconsideration. Journal of international business studies, 10(1), 67-80.
  • Leahy, J. V. ve Whited, T. M. (1995). The effect of uncertainty on investment: Some stylized facts (No. w4986). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Lucas, R. E. (1990). Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries?. The American economic review, 80(2), 92-96.
  • Luo, Y. (2009). Political risk and country risk in international business: Concepts and measures. In The Oxford Handbook of International Business (2 ed.). Oxford University Press.
  • Méon, P. G. ve Sekkat, K. (2012). FDI waves, waves of neglect of political risk. World Development, 40(11), 2194-2205.
  • Noorbakhsh, F., Paloni, A. ve Youssef, A. (2001). Human capital and FDI inflows to developing countries: New empirical evidence. World development, 29(9), 1593-1610.
  • Osabutey, E. L. ve Okoro, C. (2015). Political risk and foreign direct investment in Africa: The case of the Nigerian telecommunications industry. Thunderbird International Business Review, 57(6), 417-429.
  • Qadri, N., Shah, N. ve Nadeem Qureshi, M. (2020). Impact of Political Instability on International Investment and Trade in Pakistan. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 9(2), pp-283.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Rugman, A. M., Collinson, S. ve Hodgetts, R. M. (2006). International business. Pearson Education.
  • Schneider, F. ve Frey, B. S. (1985). Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment. World development, 13(2), 161-175.
  • Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
  • Şanlısoy, S. ve Recep, K. (2013). Politik istikrarsızlık-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1987–2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1).
  • UNCTAD (United Nations Conference On Trade And Development), (1998). World Investment Report: Trends And Determinants. New York And Geneva.
  • Vadlamannati, K. C. (2012). Impact of political risk on FDI revisited—An aggregate firm-level analysis. International Interactions, 38(1), 111-139.
  • Wheeler, D. ve Mody, A. (1992). International investment location decisions: The case of US firms. Journal of international economics, 33(1-2), 57-76.
  • Yased (Uluslararası Yatırımcılar Derneği). (2020, Mayıs 11). Erişim adresi https://www.yased.org.tr/raporlar
  • Yasuda, N. ve Kotabe, M. (2020). Political risks and foreign direct investments by multinational corporations: A reference point approach. Global Strategy Journal.

The Impact of Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: Evidence From Fourier ADL Cointegration Test

Year 2021, Issue: 60, 571 - 587, 25.12.2021

Doç. Dr. Oktay Kızılkaya , Oktay Kızılkaya

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.951065
Cited By: 2

Abstract

Focusing on the factors which affecting FDI inflows remain as a motivating issue for researchers. In the literature, the political stability level recognized as an important location advantage for host countries that aiming to attract foreign investment. The aim of this study is testing the relationship between political stability and foreign direct investment inflows empirically in Turkey and to obtain better results that support this relationship. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period of 1998Q1-2019Q4 are used. Stationarity of the series is tested using ADF and Fourier ADF unit root tests. All variables are found to be stationary when their initial differences are taken. The existence of the cointegration relationship between the series is investigated with the Fourier ADL cointegration test. The findings reveal a positive relationship between political stability and foreign direct investments in Turkey. Policy recommendations for the Turkish economy are presented within the framework of empirical findings.

Keywords

Fourier ADF Fourier ADL Political Stability FDI Turkey.

References

  • Adams, S. (2009). Foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of policy modeling, 31(6), 939-949.
  • Agarwal, J. ve Feils, D. (2007). Political risk and the internationalization of firms: An empirical study of Canadian‐based export and FDI firms. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences/Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l'Administration, 24(3), 165-181.
  • Arslan, K. ve Furtana, T. E. (2020). Political Risk and Turkey 2002-2019. International Journal of Commerce and Finance, 6(2), 218-225.
  • Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M., ve Sapsford, D. (1999). Foreign direct investment as an engine of growth. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 8(1), 27-40.
  • Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., ve Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
  • Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., Lundblad, C. T., ve Siegel, S. (2014). Political risk spreads. Journal of International Business Studies, 45(4), 471-493.
  • Biglaiser, G. ve DeRouen Jr, K. (2006). Economic reforms and inflows of foreign direct investment in Latin America. Latin American research review, 51-75.
  • Blonigen, B. A. ve Piger, J. (2014). Determinants of foreign direct investment. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 47(3), 775-812.
  • Busse, M. ve Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European journal of political economy, 23(2), 397-415.
  • Carmignani, F. (2003). Political instability, uncertainty and economics. Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(1), 1-54.
  • Christopoulos, D. K. ve León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
  • De Mello, L. R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford economic papers, 51(1), 133-151.
  • Dutta, N. ve Roy, S. (2011). Foreign direct investment, financial development and political risks. The Journal of Developing Areas, 303-327.
  • Echandi, R., Nimac, I. A. ve Chun, D. (2019). Political risk and policy responses (No. 144312, pp. 1-104). The World Bank.
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
  • Feeny, S., Iamsiraroj, S. ve McGillivray, M. (2014). Growth and foreign direct investment in the Pacific Island countries. Economic Modelling, 37, 332-339.
  • Gakpa, L. L. (2020). Political instability, FDI and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: evidence from modelling dynamic simultaneous equations. AERC.
  • Giambona, E., Graham, J. R. ve Harvey, C. R. (2017). The management of political risk. Journal of International Business Studies, 48(4), 523-533.
  • Jensen, N. (2008). Political risk, democratic institutions, and foreign direct investment. The Journal of Politics, 70(4), 1040-1052.
  • Jiménez, A. (2011). Political risk as a determinant of Southern European FDI in neighboring developing countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(4), 59-74.
  • Khan, M. M. ve Akbar, M. I. (2013). The impact of political risk on foreign direct investment. MPRA Paper, No. 47283.
  • Kızılkaya, O. (2017). Effect of Corruption on FDI in Transition Economies: evidence from causality analysis. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (19), 25-42.
  • Kim, H. (2010). Political stability and foreign direct investment. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(3), 59-71.
  • King, T., Loncan, T. ve Khan, Z. (2021). Investment, leverage and political risk: Evidence from project-level FDI. Journal of Corporate Finance, 101873.
  • Krifa-Schneider, H. ve Matei, I. (2010). Business climate, political risk and FDI in developing countries: Evidence from panel data. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(5), 54-65.
  • Kobrin, S. J. (1979). Political risk: A review and reconsideration. Journal of international business studies, 10(1), 67-80.
  • Leahy, J. V. ve Whited, T. M. (1995). The effect of uncertainty on investment: Some stylized facts (No. w4986). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Lucas, R. E. (1990). Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries?. The American economic review, 80(2), 92-96.
  • Luo, Y. (2009). Political risk and country risk in international business: Concepts and measures. In The Oxford Handbook of International Business (2 ed.). Oxford University Press.
  • Méon, P. G. ve Sekkat, K. (2012). FDI waves, waves of neglect of political risk. World Development, 40(11), 2194-2205.
  • Noorbakhsh, F., Paloni, A. ve Youssef, A. (2001). Human capital and FDI inflows to developing countries: New empirical evidence. World development, 29(9), 1593-1610.
  • Osabutey, E. L. ve Okoro, C. (2015). Political risk and foreign direct investment in Africa: The case of the Nigerian telecommunications industry. Thunderbird International Business Review, 57(6), 417-429.
  • Qadri, N., Shah, N. ve Nadeem Qureshi, M. (2020). Impact of Political Instability on International Investment and Trade in Pakistan. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 9(2), pp-283.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Rugman, A. M., Collinson, S. ve Hodgetts, R. M. (2006). International business. Pearson Education.
  • Schneider, F. ve Frey, B. S. (1985). Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment. World development, 13(2), 161-175.
  • Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
  • Şanlısoy, S. ve Recep, K. (2013). Politik istikrarsızlık-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1987–2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1).
  • UNCTAD (United Nations Conference On Trade And Development), (1998). World Investment Report: Trends And Determinants. New York And Geneva.
  • Vadlamannati, K. C. (2012). Impact of political risk on FDI revisited—An aggregate firm-level analysis. International Interactions, 38(1), 111-139.
  • Wheeler, D. ve Mody, A. (1992). International investment location decisions: The case of US firms. Journal of international economics, 33(1-2), 57-76.
  • Yased (Uluslararası Yatırımcılar Derneği). (2020, Mayıs 11). Erişim adresi https://www.yased.org.tr/raporlar
  • Yasuda, N. ve Kotabe, M. (2020). Political risks and foreign direct investments by multinational corporations: A reference point approach. Global Strategy Journal.
There are 43 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Doç. Dr. Oktay Kızılkaya 0000-0002-3830-9412

Oktay Kızılkaya 0000-0002-3412-5616

Publication Date December 25, 2021
Acceptance Date July 6, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Issue: 60

Cite

APA Kızılkaya, D. D. O., & Kızılkaya, O. (2021). Türkiye’de Politik İstikrarın Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlara Etkisi: Fourier ADL Eşbütünleşme Testinden Kanıtlar. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(60), 571-587. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.951065

Cited By

TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT, DÖVİZ KURU, İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: FOUİER KANTİL NEDENSELLİK VE FOURİER ADL EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTLERİNDEN YENİ KANITLAR
Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1256614
Impact of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment with Fourier Approach: The Case of Turkey
Alphanumeric Journal
https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.1088005
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