PETROL FİYATLARI, GSYİH VE DÖVİZ KURU DEĞİŞİMİNİN ULAŞTIRMA SEKTÖRÜNE ETKİLERİ: BİST ULAŞTIRMA ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA
Abstract
References
- Aggarwal, R., Akhigbe, A. ve Mohanty, S. K. (2012). Oil price shocks and transportation firm asset prices. Energy Economics, 34(5), 1370-1379.
- Altınay, Galip ve Karagöl, Erdal. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 27. pp.849-856.
- Aschauer DA (1991) Transportation spending and economic growth: the effects of transit and highway expenditures. American Public Transportation Association.
- Ayvaz, Ö. (2006). Döviz kuru ve hisse senetleri fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 1-14.
- Banerjee A, Duflo E ve Qian N. (2012) On the road: access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China (No. 17897). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Banister D. ve Berechman Y. (2001) Transport investment and the promotion of economic growth. Journal of Transport Geography 9(3):209–218.
- Chu Z (2012) Logistics and economic growth: a panel data approach. The Annals of Regional Science 49(1):87–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-010-0434-0
- Demir, M. (2013). Enerji ithalati cari açık ilişkisi, Var analizi ile Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 5(9), 2-27.
- Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. ve Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
- Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu [EPDK] , (2020). Petrol Piyasası 2019 Yılı Sektör Raporu.
- European Commission (2015). Blending in the transport sector. Tools and Methods Series Reference Document No 20. Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development European Commission. Brussels Luxembourg, November 2015. Erişim adresi https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/file/29928/download?token=qd5BoGj6
- Fernald JG (1999) Roads to prosperity? Assessing the link between public capital and productivity. American Econonomic Review 89(3):619–638.
- Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
- Hayaloglu, P. (2015). The impact of developments in the logistics sector on economic growth: The case of OECD countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 523-530.
- Hong J, Chu Z ve Wang Q (2011) Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China. Transportation 38(5):737–752.
- Hsiao, C. (1979). Causality tests in econometrics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1(4), 321-346.
- Hwang, D. B. ve Gum, B. (1991). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. The Journal of Energy and Development, 219-226.
- Kaya, S. (2008). Türkiye’de ulaştırma sektörünün genel görünümü ve sorunları. İzmir Ticaret Odası, Ar-Ge Bülten 2008 Şubat–Sektörel, İzmir.
- Kiraci, K. (2020). BİST Ulaştırma endeksi ile dolar endeksi ve petrol fiyatları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak analizi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 180-189. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.688344
- Lean HH, Huang W ve Hong J (2014) Logistics and economic development: experience from China. Transport Policy 32:96–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.01.003
- Lee, J., ve Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
- Lee, J., ve Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 33(4), 2483-2492.
- Marazzo M, Scherre R ve Fernandes E (2010) Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: a time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 46 (2):261–269
- Mohmand YT, Wang A ve Saeed A (2017) The impact of transportation infrastructure on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan. Transportation Letters, The International Journal of Transportation Research 9(2):63–69
- Öksüzler, O. ve İpek, E. (2011). Dünya petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimin büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14).
- Phillips, P. C., ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Pradhan RP ve Bagchi TP (2013) Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: the VECM approach. Research in Transportation Economics 38(1):139–148
- Rokhim, R., Tolangga, F. G. ve Astrini, M. R. (2021). Does the volatility of oil prices influence the transportation sector in ASEAN countries?. Siska Noviaristanti (Ed.) Contemporary Research on Business and Management içinde (s. 337). Jakarta, Indonesia: CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003035985
- Sarıtaş, H., Genç, A. ve Avcı, T. (2018). Türkiye’de enerji ithalatı, cari açık ve büyüme ilişkisi: VAR ve Granger nedensellik analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 14(2), 181-200.
- Sturm JE, Jacobs J ve Groote P (1999) Output effects of infrastructure investment in the Netherlands, 1853–1913. Journal of Macroeconomics 21(2):355–380
- Thornton, D. L. ve Batten, D. S. (1985). Lag-length selection and tests of Granger causality between money and income. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 17(2), 164-178.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu [TÜİK] (2021, Nisan 23). Erişim adresi https://data.tuik.gov.tr
- Uysal, D., Yılmaz, K. ve Taş T. (2015). Enerji ithalatı ve cari açık ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1), 63-78.
- Yıldırım, S., Ertuğrul, H. M., ve Soytaş, U. (2015). Türkiye’de aylık istihdam serisinin durağanlığı: Geleneksel, yapısal kırılmalı ve mevsimsel birim kök test uygulamaları. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(4), 91-102.
- Yurdakul, A. (2017). Türkçe ulaştırma terminolojisinin biçim bilimsel açıdan standartlaştırılması üzerine”. Türk Dili, Temmuz 2017, 67(787).
THE EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE, GDP AND EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR: AN APPLICATION ON THE BIST TRANSPORT INDEX
Abstract
Transport and logistics activities are great importance in economic development, employment creation and increasing competitiveness. In this research, the relationship between Transport and Logistics sector and economic growth has been investigated. In light of the findings obtained, we aimed to advise the sector representatives and to raise awareness, and inform them about the risks that may be encountered and the opportunities that may arise. For this purpose, Granger (1969) and Hsiao (1979) causality analyzes have conducted using macroeconomic variables that are influenced or thought to be influenced by the sector. Significant structural breaks have been detected. According to the analysis results, the Transport and Logistics sector is not the cause of economic growth, but economic growth affects the sector. Therefore, there is a one-way relationship. In addition, there is one-way causality from oil prices and exchange rates towards the sector. This study, which examines the Borsa İstanbul Transportation (XULAS) index, contributes to the literature in terms of the variables examined, the time interval of the variables, the methodology used, and the findings obtained.
References
- Aggarwal, R., Akhigbe, A. ve Mohanty, S. K. (2012). Oil price shocks and transportation firm asset prices. Energy Economics, 34(5), 1370-1379.
- Altınay, Galip ve Karagöl, Erdal. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 27. pp.849-856.
- Aschauer DA (1991) Transportation spending and economic growth: the effects of transit and highway expenditures. American Public Transportation Association.
- Ayvaz, Ö. (2006). Döviz kuru ve hisse senetleri fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 1-14.
- Banerjee A, Duflo E ve Qian N. (2012) On the road: access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China (No. 17897). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Banister D. ve Berechman Y. (2001) Transport investment and the promotion of economic growth. Journal of Transport Geography 9(3):209–218.
- Chu Z (2012) Logistics and economic growth: a panel data approach. The Annals of Regional Science 49(1):87–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-010-0434-0
- Demir, M. (2013). Enerji ithalati cari açık ilişkisi, Var analizi ile Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 5(9), 2-27.
- Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. ve Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
- Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu [EPDK] , (2020). Petrol Piyasası 2019 Yılı Sektör Raporu.
- European Commission (2015). Blending in the transport sector. Tools and Methods Series Reference Document No 20. Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development European Commission. Brussels Luxembourg, November 2015. Erişim adresi https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/file/29928/download?token=qd5BoGj6
- Fernald JG (1999) Roads to prosperity? Assessing the link between public capital and productivity. American Econonomic Review 89(3):619–638.
- Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
- Hayaloglu, P. (2015). The impact of developments in the logistics sector on economic growth: The case of OECD countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 523-530.
- Hong J, Chu Z ve Wang Q (2011) Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China. Transportation 38(5):737–752.
- Hsiao, C. (1979). Causality tests in econometrics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1(4), 321-346.
- Hwang, D. B. ve Gum, B. (1991). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. The Journal of Energy and Development, 219-226.
- Kaya, S. (2008). Türkiye’de ulaştırma sektörünün genel görünümü ve sorunları. İzmir Ticaret Odası, Ar-Ge Bülten 2008 Şubat–Sektörel, İzmir.
- Kiraci, K. (2020). BİST Ulaştırma endeksi ile dolar endeksi ve petrol fiyatları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik olarak analizi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 180-189. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.688344
- Lean HH, Huang W ve Hong J (2014) Logistics and economic development: experience from China. Transport Policy 32:96–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.01.003
- Lee, J., ve Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
- Lee, J., ve Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 33(4), 2483-2492.
- Marazzo M, Scherre R ve Fernandes E (2010) Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: a time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 46 (2):261–269
- Mohmand YT, Wang A ve Saeed A (2017) The impact of transportation infrastructure on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan. Transportation Letters, The International Journal of Transportation Research 9(2):63–69
- Öksüzler, O. ve İpek, E. (2011). Dünya petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimin büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14).
- Phillips, P. C., ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Pradhan RP ve Bagchi TP (2013) Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: the VECM approach. Research in Transportation Economics 38(1):139–148
- Rokhim, R., Tolangga, F. G. ve Astrini, M. R. (2021). Does the volatility of oil prices influence the transportation sector in ASEAN countries?. Siska Noviaristanti (Ed.) Contemporary Research on Business and Management içinde (s. 337). Jakarta, Indonesia: CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003035985
- Sarıtaş, H., Genç, A. ve Avcı, T. (2018). Türkiye’de enerji ithalatı, cari açık ve büyüme ilişkisi: VAR ve Granger nedensellik analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 14(2), 181-200.
- Sturm JE, Jacobs J ve Groote P (1999) Output effects of infrastructure investment in the Netherlands, 1853–1913. Journal of Macroeconomics 21(2):355–380
- Thornton, D. L. ve Batten, D. S. (1985). Lag-length selection and tests of Granger causality between money and income. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 17(2), 164-178.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu [TÜİK] (2021, Nisan 23). Erişim adresi https://data.tuik.gov.tr
- Uysal, D., Yılmaz, K. ve Taş T. (2015). Enerji ithalatı ve cari açık ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1), 63-78.
- Yıldırım, S., Ertuğrul, H. M., ve Soytaş, U. (2015). Türkiye’de aylık istihdam serisinin durağanlığı: Geleneksel, yapısal kırılmalı ve mevsimsel birim kök test uygulamaları. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(4), 91-102.
- Yurdakul, A. (2017). Türkçe ulaştırma terminolojisinin biçim bilimsel açıdan standartlaştırılması üzerine”. Türk Dili, Temmuz 2017, 67(787).
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Early Pub Date | April 28, 2022 |
| Publication Date | April 29, 2022 |
| Acceptance Date | November 25, 2021 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2022 Issue: 61 |
Cited By
BİST ENDEKSLERİ İLE BRENT PETROL FİYATLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ
Uluslararası Finansal Ekonomi ve Bankacılık Uygulamaları Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.57085/ufebud.1209114
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