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TÜRKİYE'DE POLİTİK İSTİKRAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Year 2022, Issue: 61, 1 - 15, 29.04.2022

Sinan Erdoğan , Güray Akalin

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.951219
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Ekonomik büyüme literatüründe, ülkeler arası büyüme farklılıklarının açıklanmasında kurumsal faktörler üzerinde fazlaca durulmaktadır. Bu kurumsal faktörlerden bir tanesi de ülkelerin yaygın düşünce-davranış alışkanlıklarını güçlü bir şekilde yansıtan politik istikrardır. Zira, politik istikrar hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde iktisadi faaliyetlerin sürdürülebilir kılınması adına oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de politik istikrar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini 1984-2017 dönemi için zaman serisi analizi yöntemleriyle araştırmaktır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular şöyle sıralanabilir; (a) analizde kullanılan değişkenler birim kök süreci sergilemekteyken, birinci sıra farkları alındığında ise durağan hale gelmektedir, (b) eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki vardır, (c) uzun dönemli katsayı tahminine göre politik istikrar, yatırım ve tüketim harcamaları iktisadi büyümeyi pozitif etkilerken, kamu tüketim harcamaları negatif etkilemektedir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye ekonomisinde politik istikrarın sürdürülebilir kılınması yönünde alınacak tedbirler ve uygulanacak politikalar, iktisadi gelişme sürecini olumlu etkileyecektir.

Keywords

Politik İstikrar Ekonomik Büyüme Türkiye DOLS

References

  • Acaravci, A., Akalin, G. ve Erdoğan, S. (2019). Araştırma-geliştirme harcamalarının Türkiye ihracatına etkileri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37(1), 1-16.
  • Aisen, A. ve Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167.
  • Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. ve Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211.
  • Arslan, Ü. (2011). Siyasi istikrarsizlik ve ekonomik performans: Türkiye örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(1), 73-80.
  • Asteriou, D. ve Price, S. (2001). Political instability and economic growth: UK time series evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383-399.
  • Butkiewicz, J. L. ve Yanikkaya, H. (2005). The impact of sociopolitical instability on economic growth: analysis and implications. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(5), 629-645.
  • Calvo, G. A. ve Drazen, A. (1998). Uncertain duration of reform: dynamic implications. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2(4), 443-455.
  • Campos, N. F., Karanasos, M. G. ve Tan, B. (2012). Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(1), 290-304.
  • Chikalipah, S. ve Okafor, G. (2019). Dynamic linkage between economic growth and human development: time series evidence from Nigeria. Journal of International Development, 31(1), 22-38.
  • Demirgil, H. (2011). Politik istikrarsızlık, belirsizlik ve makroekonomi: Türkiye örneği (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi,, 31(2), 123-144.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Enders, W. (2008). Applied econometric time series: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Fosu, A. K. (2001). Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics. Economics Letters, 70(2), 289-294.
  • Fosu, A. K. (2002). Political instability and economic growth: Implications of coup events in Sub‐Saharan Africa. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 61(1), 329-348.
  • Grossman, H. I. (1991). A general equilibrium model of insurrections. The American Economic Review, 912-921.
  • Gür, T. H. ve Akbulut, H. (2012). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politik istikrarın ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 17(1).
  • Gyimah-Brempong, K. ve Traynor, T. L. (1999). Political instability, investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 8(1), 52-86.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 15-29.
  • Kalay, M. ve Çetin, D. (2016). Afrika ülkelerinde politik istikrar ve ekonomik büyüme. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(7), 2277-2290.
  • Kamaci, A. (2019). Politik istikrarsızlık-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 20 OECD ülkesi için panel veri analizi. Başkent Üniversitesi Ticari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(2), 75-85.
  • Mancur Jr, O. (1982). The rise and decline of nations: economic growth, stagflation, and social rigidities: Yale University Press.
  • Murphy, K. M., Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. W. (1991). The allocation of talent: Implications for growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 503-530.
  • Mustafa, Ö. ve Kocaman, M. (2019). A bootstrap panel granger causality analysis of relationships netween political instability and macroeconomic variables. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 3(2), 239-252.
  • Parlakyıldız, F. M. (2015). Makro ekonomik ve politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik performans üzerine etkisi: Latin Amerika örneği. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(2), 1-11.
  • Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1991). Is inequality harmful for growth? Theory and evidence. https://www.nber.org/papers/w3599.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 25 Haziran 2020)
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Saikkonen, P. (1991). Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric theory, 7(1), 1-21.
  • Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
  • Şanlisoy, S. ve Kök, R. (2013). Politik istikrarsizlik-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1987–2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1).
  • The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). (2020). Political Risk Services (PRS). https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/political-risk-services/ (Erişim Tarihi: 1 Ocak 2020).
  • Turan, İ., Demez, S. ve Kızılkaya, F. (2019) NIC Ülkelerinde Politik İstikrar Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Siirt Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 7(14), 485-499.
  • World Bank. (2019). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. ve Kaya, V. (2017). Politik İstikrarin/İstikrarsizliğin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Dünyanin En Büyük İlk Yirmi Ekonomisi Üzerinde Bir Uygulama (1996-2015). Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(2), 277-298.
  • Yüksek Seçim Kurulu (2020). Milletvekili Genel Seçim Arşivi. http://www.ysk.gov.tr/tr/milletvekili-genel-secim-arsivi/2644 (Erişim Tarihi: 25 Haziran 2020).

POLITICAL STABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN TURKEY

Year 2022, Issue: 61, 1 - 15, 29.04.2022

Sinan Erdoğan , Güray Akalin

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.951219
Cited By: 1

Abstract

In the economic growth literature, there has been a lot of emphasis on institutional factors in explaining the growth differences between countries. One of these institutional factors is political stability, which strongly reflects the common thought-behavior habits of countries. Because political stability is crucial in making economic activities sustainable in both developed and developing countries. The main purpose of this study is to examine political stability-economic growth nexus in Turkey for the period of 1984-2017 by using time series analysis techniques. The empirical findings are as follows: (a) analyzed variables exhibit unit root process, while they are stationary at their first difference, (b) according to the cointegration test results, there is a long-run relationship among variables, (c) according to the long-run parameter estimation, political stability investments and consumption expenditures have a positive effect on economic growth, whereas government expenditures negative. In this context, measures and policies for ensuring the sustainability of political stability in Turkey will positively affect economic growth in Turkey.

Keywords

: Political Stability Economic Growth Turkey DOLS

References

  • Acaravci, A., Akalin, G. ve Erdoğan, S. (2019). Araştırma-geliştirme harcamalarının Türkiye ihracatına etkileri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37(1), 1-16.
  • Aisen, A. ve Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167.
  • Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. ve Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211.
  • Arslan, Ü. (2011). Siyasi istikrarsizlik ve ekonomik performans: Türkiye örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(1), 73-80.
  • Asteriou, D. ve Price, S. (2001). Political instability and economic growth: UK time series evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383-399.
  • Butkiewicz, J. L. ve Yanikkaya, H. (2005). The impact of sociopolitical instability on economic growth: analysis and implications. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(5), 629-645.
  • Calvo, G. A. ve Drazen, A. (1998). Uncertain duration of reform: dynamic implications. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2(4), 443-455.
  • Campos, N. F., Karanasos, M. G. ve Tan, B. (2012). Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(1), 290-304.
  • Chikalipah, S. ve Okafor, G. (2019). Dynamic linkage between economic growth and human development: time series evidence from Nigeria. Journal of International Development, 31(1), 22-38.
  • Demirgil, H. (2011). Politik istikrarsızlık, belirsizlik ve makroekonomi: Türkiye örneği (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi,, 31(2), 123-144.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Enders, W. (2008). Applied econometric time series: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Fosu, A. K. (2001). Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics. Economics Letters, 70(2), 289-294.
  • Fosu, A. K. (2002). Political instability and economic growth: Implications of coup events in Sub‐Saharan Africa. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 61(1), 329-348.
  • Grossman, H. I. (1991). A general equilibrium model of insurrections. The American Economic Review, 912-921.
  • Gür, T. H. ve Akbulut, H. (2012). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politik istikrarın ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 17(1).
  • Gyimah-Brempong, K. ve Traynor, T. L. (1999). Political instability, investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 8(1), 52-86.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 15-29.
  • Kalay, M. ve Çetin, D. (2016). Afrika ülkelerinde politik istikrar ve ekonomik büyüme. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(7), 2277-2290.
  • Kamaci, A. (2019). Politik istikrarsızlık-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 20 OECD ülkesi için panel veri analizi. Başkent Üniversitesi Ticari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(2), 75-85.
  • Mancur Jr, O. (1982). The rise and decline of nations: economic growth, stagflation, and social rigidities: Yale University Press.
  • Murphy, K. M., Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. W. (1991). The allocation of talent: Implications for growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 503-530.
  • Mustafa, Ö. ve Kocaman, M. (2019). A bootstrap panel granger causality analysis of relationships netween political instability and macroeconomic variables. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 3(2), 239-252.
  • Parlakyıldız, F. M. (2015). Makro ekonomik ve politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik performans üzerine etkisi: Latin Amerika örneği. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(2), 1-11.
  • Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1991). Is inequality harmful for growth? Theory and evidence. https://www.nber.org/papers/w3599.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 25 Haziran 2020)
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Saikkonen, P. (1991). Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric theory, 7(1), 1-21.
  • Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
  • Şanlisoy, S. ve Kök, R. (2013). Politik istikrarsizlik-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1987–2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1).
  • The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). (2020). Political Risk Services (PRS). https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/political-risk-services/ (Erişim Tarihi: 1 Ocak 2020).
  • Turan, İ., Demez, S. ve Kızılkaya, F. (2019) NIC Ülkelerinde Politik İstikrar Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Siirt Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 7(14), 485-499.
  • World Bank. (2019). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. ve Kaya, V. (2017). Politik İstikrarin/İstikrarsizliğin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Dünyanin En Büyük İlk Yirmi Ekonomisi Üzerinde Bir Uygulama (1996-2015). Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(2), 277-298.
  • Yüksek Seçim Kurulu (2020). Milletvekili Genel Seçim Arşivi. http://www.ysk.gov.tr/tr/milletvekili-genel-secim-arsivi/2644 (Erişim Tarihi: 25 Haziran 2020).
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Sinan Erdoğan 0000-0003-3491-8234

Güray Akalin 0000-0002-6647-5418

Early Pub Date April 28, 2022
Publication Date April 29, 2022
Acceptance Date July 26, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Issue: 61

Cite

APA Erdoğan, S., & Akalin, G. (2022). TÜRKİYE’DE POLİTİK İSTİKRAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(61), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.951219

Cited By

POLİTİK İSTİKRAR VE KİŞİSEL GELİR ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: BRICS VE MIST ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ
Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.1295438
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