THE IMPACT OF MONETARY SHOCKS ON INFLATION IN SELECTED WEST ASIAN COUNTRIES

Year 2023, Issue: 65, 73 - 80, 31.08.2023

Masoud Saadatmehr

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1252958

Abstract

The impact of monetary policies on inflation has always been one of the goals of monetary policymakers. To what extent a monetary shock can be effective on inflation, or that both positive and negative monetary shocks can be effective in aggravating or controlling inflation are among the important issues in monetary economics, which scientific research is aimed at It is very necessary to answer them. Therefore, in this research, the impact of positive and negative shocks on the inflation rate in selected West Asian countries has been investigated. In this research, panel data has been used in the period of 2000-2020 for the countries of the West Asian region, including Iran, Armenia, Jordan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kuwait and Georgia. GLS method is used to estimate the model. The results showed that the impact of monetary shocks on the general level of prices are different from each other in the countries of the West Asian region, both in terms of the level of significance and in terms of the level of influence. In the countries of Iran, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kuwait and Georgia, monetary shocks had a symmetrical effect on the general level of prices, and in the countries of Jordan, Azerbaijan and Qatar, the effect of monetary shocks was asymmetric. Of course, in the countries of Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kazakhstan, only negative shocks have an effect on the general level of prices, as a result, the impact of monetary shocks on the general level of prices is asymmetric in these countries as well. Also, the results showed that in all the studied countries, the impact of negative shocks on prices is greater than positive shocks.

Keywords

monetary shocks, West Asia, inflation, general level of prices, monetary policies

SEÇİLMİŞ ÜLKELERDE PARASAL ŞOKLARIN ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKISI BATI ASYA ÜLKELERİ

Abstract

Para politikalarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi her zaman para politikası yapıcıların hedeflerinden biri olmuştur. Parasal bir şokun enflasyon üzerinde ne ölçüde etkili olabileceği veya hem pozitif hem de negatif parasal şokların enflasyonu artırmada veya kontrol etmede etkili olabileceği, bilimsel araştırmaların hedeflendiği parasal iktisadın önemli konuları arasında yer almaktadır. . Bu nedenle bu araştırmada, seçilmiş Batı Asya ülkelerinde pozitif ve negatif şokların enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu araştırmada İran, Ermenistan, Ürdün, Azerbaycan, Pakistan, Umman, Suudi Arabistan, Kırgızistan, Kazakistan, Katar, Kuveyt ve Gürcistan gibi Batı Asya bölgesi ülkeleri için 2000-2020 dönemi için panel veri kullanılmıştır. . Modelin tahmini için GLS yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, parasal şokların fiyatlar genel düzeyi üzerindeki etkisinin Batı Asya bölgesi ülkelerinde hem önem düzeyi hem de etki düzeyi açısından birbirinden farklı olduğunu göstermiştir. İran, Pakistan, Kırgızistan, Kuveyt ve Gürcistan ülkelerinde parasal şokların fiyatlar genel düzeyi üzerinde simetrik bir etkisi olurken, Ürdün, Azerbaycan ve Katar ülkelerinde parasal şokların etkisi asimetrik olmuştur. Elbette Suudi Arabistan, Umman ve Kazakistan ülkelerinde fiyatlar genel düzeyi üzerinde sadece negatif şoklar etkili olmakta, dolayısıyla bu ülkelerde de parasal şokların fiyatlar genel düzeyi üzerindeki etkisi asimetriktir. Ayrıca sonuçlar, incelenen tüm ülkelerde negatif şokların fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif şoklardan daha fazla olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

West Asia, inflation, general level of prices, monetary policies

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