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BORSA İSTANBUL ELEKTRİK ENDEKSİ PAY SENETLERİNDE ETKİN PİYASALAR HİPOTEZİ: GELİŞMİŞ FONKSİYONLU BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİNDEN AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Year 2024, Issue: 68, 21 - 28, 31.08.2024

Osman Varol , Şevket Pazarcı , Asim Kar

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1383397

Abstract

Yenilenebilir enerji sektöründeki gelişmeler, sermaye piyasalarında yüksek getiri arayışındaki yatırımcılar açısından elektrik firmalarının konumunu bugünden değiştirmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Borsa İstanbul (BIST) elektrik endeksindeki (XELKT) pay senetleri için etkin piyasalar hipotezinin (EPH) geçerliliğini normal olmayan dağılım, yapısal kırılma ve doğrusal olmayan süreç altında karşılaştırmalı olarak test etmektir. Bu amaç için birim kök testi literatüründe yer alan ADF, RALS-ADF, Fourier-ADF ve Fourier-KSS testleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular serinin dağılım, doğrusallık ve yapısal kırılma özelliklerini dikkate alan birim kök testlerinde farklılık göstermesine rağmen genel olarak XELT endeksinde yer alan pay senetleri için zayıf formda piyasa etkinliğinin geçerliliğini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre, kısıtlı sayıdaki enerji firmasının pay senedi fiyatları ortalamaya dönüş özelliği sergilerken dikkate değer bir kısmının fiyatları ise rassal yürüyüş özelliği göstermektedir. Pay senedi fiyatlarının zayıf formda etkinliğine yönelik kanıtlar, gelecekteki fiyat davranışlarının tahmin edilebilir olmadığını desteklemektedir.

Keywords

etkin piyasalar hipotezi BIST-elektrik birim kök testleri

References

  • Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Automobiles. (2023, Haziran). New car registrations: +17.8% in June, battery electric 15.1% market share. Erişim adresi https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-17-8-in-june-battery-electric-15-1-market-share/
  • Altuntaş, M., Kılıç, E., Pazarcı, Ş. ve Umut, A. (2022). Borsa İstanbul Alt Endekslerinde Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Fourier Kırılmalı ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 169-185. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1041187
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Niroomand, F. ve Ranjbar, O. (2020). Fourier nonlinear quantile unit root test and PPP in Africa. Bulletin of Economic Research, 72(4), 451-481.
  • Bal, H., Algan, N., Erdoğan, E. ve Tekin, İ. (2021). Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Zayıf Formunun Türkiye’de Bankacılık Sektörü İçin Test Edilmesi. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(2), 327-345. https://doi.org/10.51945/cuiibfd.995297
  • Borsa İstanbul. (2023a). Endeksler, BIST Elektrik. Erişim Adresi https://www.borsaistanbul.com/tr/endeks-detay/216/bist-elektrik
  • Borsa İstanbul. (2023b). Pay Piyasası Verileri, İlk İşlem Tarihleri ve İlk İşlem Fiyatları. Erişim Adresi https://www.borsaistanbul.com/tr/sayfa/480/pay-piyasasi-verileri
  • Brigham, E. F. ve Houston, J. F. (2021). Fundamentals of financial management: Concise. Cengage Learning.
  • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D. ve LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. Econometric reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. ve León-Ledesma, M.A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
  • Cornett, M. M., Adair, T. ve Nofsinger, J. (2014).). Finance. McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
  • Coşkun, Y. ve Seven, U. (2016). Efficiency of financial markets. In A. Gündoğdu (Ed.), Financial markets and institutions: Theory and practice in Turkey (289-319). Ankara: Seckin Publishing.
  • Cuthbertson, K. ve Nitzsche, D. (2005). Quantitative financial economics: stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Çevik, E.İ. (2018). Borsa İstanbul zayıf formda etkin mi? Markov-Switching ADF testi yaklaşımı. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 12(2), 9-30. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bddkdergisi/
  • Dallı, T. ve Uğur, B. (2022). BİST Gıda ve İçecek Sektörü Endeksinin Zayıf Formda Etkinliğinin Sınanması. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(3), 3189-3197. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1016279
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, J. (2012a). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574-599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, J. (2012b). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
  • Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu. (2018-2022). 2018-2022 Yılları Elektrik Piyasası Gelişim Raporları. Erişim adresi https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-24-3/elektrikyillik-sektor-raporu
  • Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu. (2023, Haziran). 2023 Yılı Elektrik Piyasası Haziran Ayı Sektör Raporu. Erişim adresi https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-23-3/elektrikaylik-sektor-raporlar
  • Eva, T. L., & Claudia, N. M. (2018). Effect of Free Float Ratio on the Behavior of Shares Valuation in Companies Listed in Latin American Capital Market. In P. S. Hoffmann (Ed.), Firm Value-Theory and Empirical Evidence. InTech. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76421
  • Fama, E.F. (1970). Session topic: Stock market price behavior. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
  • Gozbasi, O., Kucukkaplan, I. ve Nazlioglu, S. (2014). Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests. Economic Modelling, 38, 381-384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.021
  • Hansen, B.E. (1995). Rethinking the univariate approach to unit root testing: Using covariates to increase power. Econometric Theory, 11(5), 1148-1171.
  • Im, K.S. ve Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.01.003
  • Jarque, C.M. ve Bera, A.K. (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 55(2), 163-172. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192
  • Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu. (2023a). Şirketler, BIST Şirketleri, Sektörler. Erişim Adresi https://www.kap.org.tr/tr/Sektorler
  • Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu. (2023b). Şirketler, BIST Şirketleri, Endeksler. Erişim Adresi https://www.kap.org.tr/tr/Endeksler
  • Kapusuzoglu, A. (2013). Testing weak form market efficiency on the Istanbul stock exchange (ISE). International Journal of Business Management and Economic Research, 4(2), 700-705.
  • Karademir, F. ve Evci, S. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da zayıf formda piyasa etkinliğinin test edilmesi: Sektörel çerçevede bir analiz. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 8(1), 82-100. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v8i1.1416
  • Kilic, Y. ve Bugan, M. F. (2016). The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 6(10), 262-272.
  • Lim, K. P. ve Brooks, R. (2011). The evolution of stock market efficiency over time: A survey of the empirical literature. Journal of economic surveys, 25(1), 69-108.
  • Lu, Y. C., Chang, T., Hung, K. ve Liu, W. C. (2010). Mean reversion in G-7 stock prices: Further evidence from a panel stationary test with multiple structural breaks. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 80(10), 2019-2025.
  • Morgan Stanley Capital Index. (2023, Ağustos). MSCI Small Cap Indexes List of Additions/Deletions. Erişim Adresi https://www.msci.com/index-review
  • Otomotiv Distribütörleri ve Mobilite Derneği. (2023, Haziran). Makroekonomik Değerlendirme, Haziran 2023. Erişim adresi https://www.odmd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/3482/Makroekonomik%20Değerlendirme%20-%20Haziran%202023.pdf
  • Omay, T. (2015). Fractional frequency flexible Fourier form to approximate smooth breaks in unit root testing. Economics Letters, 134, 123-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.07.010
  • Oğuz, O. (2021). BİST-100 endeksinde doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan yöntemlerle zayıf formda piyasa etkinliğinin testi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 107-123. https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.884585
  • Ozdemir, Z.A. (2008). Efficient market hypothesis: evidence from a small open-economy. Applied Economics, 40(5), 633-641. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600722315
  • Özdemir, M. (2022). Etkin piyasa hipotezinin yapısal kırılmalı ve doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ile analizi: Borsa İstanbul üzerine bir uygulama. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (37), 257-282. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2022.37.1135040
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 57(6), 1361-1401. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712
  • Türkiye Sermaye Piyasaları Birliği. (2022). Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2022. Erişim adresi https://tspb.org.tr/yayinlar/turkiye-sermaye-piyasasi-2022/

Efficient markets hypothesis in Borsa Istanbul electricity index stocks: Empirical evidence from advanced function unit root tests

Year 2024, Issue: 68, 21 - 28, 31.08.2024

Osman Varol , Şevket Pazarcı , Asim Kar

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1383397

Abstract

Developments in the renewable energy sector are already changing the position of electricity firms in terms of investors seeking high returns in the capital markets. The purpose of this paper is to comparatively test the validity of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) for stocks in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) electricity index (XELKT) under non-normal distribution, structural break, and non-linear process. For this purpose, ADF, RALS-ADF, Fourier-ADF and Fourier-KSS tests in the unit root test literature were used. Although the empirical findings differ in unit root tests that consider distribution, linearity and structural break properties of the series, the findings generally reveal the validity of the weak form of market efficiency for the stocks in the XELT index. Accordingly, while the stock prices of a limited number of energy firms exhibit a mean-reversion, the prices of a considerable number of energy firms exhibit a random walk. Evidence for the weak-form efficiency of stock prices supports that future price behavior is not predictable.

Keywords

efficient markets hypothesis BIST-electricity unit root tests

References

  • Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Automobiles. (2023, Haziran). New car registrations: +17.8% in June, battery electric 15.1% market share. Erişim adresi https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-17-8-in-june-battery-electric-15-1-market-share/
  • Altuntaş, M., Kılıç, E., Pazarcı, Ş. ve Umut, A. (2022). Borsa İstanbul Alt Endekslerinde Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Fourier Kırılmalı ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 169-185. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1041187
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Niroomand, F. ve Ranjbar, O. (2020). Fourier nonlinear quantile unit root test and PPP in Africa. Bulletin of Economic Research, 72(4), 451-481.
  • Bal, H., Algan, N., Erdoğan, E. ve Tekin, İ. (2021). Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Zayıf Formunun Türkiye’de Bankacılık Sektörü İçin Test Edilmesi. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(2), 327-345. https://doi.org/10.51945/cuiibfd.995297
  • Borsa İstanbul. (2023a). Endeksler, BIST Elektrik. Erişim Adresi https://www.borsaistanbul.com/tr/endeks-detay/216/bist-elektrik
  • Borsa İstanbul. (2023b). Pay Piyasası Verileri, İlk İşlem Tarihleri ve İlk İşlem Fiyatları. Erişim Adresi https://www.borsaistanbul.com/tr/sayfa/480/pay-piyasasi-verileri
  • Brigham, E. F. ve Houston, J. F. (2021). Fundamentals of financial management: Concise. Cengage Learning.
  • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D. ve LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. Econometric reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. ve León-Ledesma, M.A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
  • Cornett, M. M., Adair, T. ve Nofsinger, J. (2014).). Finance. McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
  • Coşkun, Y. ve Seven, U. (2016). Efficiency of financial markets. In A. Gündoğdu (Ed.), Financial markets and institutions: Theory and practice in Turkey (289-319). Ankara: Seckin Publishing.
  • Cuthbertson, K. ve Nitzsche, D. (2005). Quantitative financial economics: stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Çevik, E.İ. (2018). Borsa İstanbul zayıf formda etkin mi? Markov-Switching ADF testi yaklaşımı. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 12(2), 9-30. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bddkdergisi/
  • Dallı, T. ve Uğur, B. (2022). BİST Gıda ve İçecek Sektörü Endeksinin Zayıf Formda Etkinliğinin Sınanması. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(3), 3189-3197. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1016279
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, J. (2012a). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574-599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
  • Enders, W. ve Lee, J. (2012b). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
  • Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu. (2018-2022). 2018-2022 Yılları Elektrik Piyasası Gelişim Raporları. Erişim adresi https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-24-3/elektrikyillik-sektor-raporu
  • Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu. (2023, Haziran). 2023 Yılı Elektrik Piyasası Haziran Ayı Sektör Raporu. Erişim adresi https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-23-3/elektrikaylik-sektor-raporlar
  • Eva, T. L., & Claudia, N. M. (2018). Effect of Free Float Ratio on the Behavior of Shares Valuation in Companies Listed in Latin American Capital Market. In P. S. Hoffmann (Ed.), Firm Value-Theory and Empirical Evidence. InTech. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.76421
  • Fama, E.F. (1970). Session topic: Stock market price behavior. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
  • Gozbasi, O., Kucukkaplan, I. ve Nazlioglu, S. (2014). Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests. Economic Modelling, 38, 381-384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.021
  • Hansen, B.E. (1995). Rethinking the univariate approach to unit root testing: Using covariates to increase power. Econometric Theory, 11(5), 1148-1171.
  • Im, K.S. ve Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.01.003
  • Jarque, C.M. ve Bera, A.K. (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 55(2), 163-172. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192
  • Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu. (2023a). Şirketler, BIST Şirketleri, Sektörler. Erişim Adresi https://www.kap.org.tr/tr/Sektorler
  • Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu. (2023b). Şirketler, BIST Şirketleri, Endeksler. Erişim Adresi https://www.kap.org.tr/tr/Endeksler
  • Kapusuzoglu, A. (2013). Testing weak form market efficiency on the Istanbul stock exchange (ISE). International Journal of Business Management and Economic Research, 4(2), 700-705.
  • Karademir, F. ve Evci, S. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da zayıf formda piyasa etkinliğinin test edilmesi: Sektörel çerçevede bir analiz. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 8(1), 82-100. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v8i1.1416
  • Kilic, Y. ve Bugan, M. F. (2016). The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 6(10), 262-272.
  • Lim, K. P. ve Brooks, R. (2011). The evolution of stock market efficiency over time: A survey of the empirical literature. Journal of economic surveys, 25(1), 69-108.
  • Lu, Y. C., Chang, T., Hung, K. ve Liu, W. C. (2010). Mean reversion in G-7 stock prices: Further evidence from a panel stationary test with multiple structural breaks. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 80(10), 2019-2025.
  • Morgan Stanley Capital Index. (2023, Ağustos). MSCI Small Cap Indexes List of Additions/Deletions. Erişim Adresi https://www.msci.com/index-review
  • Otomotiv Distribütörleri ve Mobilite Derneği. (2023, Haziran). Makroekonomik Değerlendirme, Haziran 2023. Erişim adresi https://www.odmd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/3482/Makroekonomik%20Değerlendirme%20-%20Haziran%202023.pdf
  • Omay, T. (2015). Fractional frequency flexible Fourier form to approximate smooth breaks in unit root testing. Economics Letters, 134, 123-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.07.010
  • Oğuz, O. (2021). BİST-100 endeksinde doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan yöntemlerle zayıf formda piyasa etkinliğinin testi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 107-123. https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.884585
  • Ozdemir, Z.A. (2008). Efficient market hypothesis: evidence from a small open-economy. Applied Economics, 40(5), 633-641. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600722315
  • Özdemir, M. (2022). Etkin piyasa hipotezinin yapısal kırılmalı ve doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ile analizi: Borsa İstanbul üzerine bir uygulama. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (37), 257-282. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2022.37.1135040
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 57(6), 1361-1401. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712
  • Türkiye Sermaye Piyasaları Birliği. (2022). Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2022. Erişim adresi https://tspb.org.tr/yayinlar/turkiye-sermaye-piyasasi-2022/
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Osman Varol 0000-0002-6572-9383

Şevket Pazarcı 0000-0002-3675-909X

Asim Kar 0000-0001-5763-1434

Early Pub Date August 22, 2024
Publication Date August 31, 2024
Submission Date October 30, 2023
Acceptance Date March 14, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 68

Cite

APA Varol, O., Pazarcı, Ş., & Kar, A. (2024). BORSA İSTANBUL ELEKTRİK ENDEKSİ PAY SENETLERİNDE ETKİN PİYASALAR HİPOTEZİ: GELİŞMİŞ FONKSİYONLU BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİNDEN AMPİRİK KANITLAR. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(68), 21-28. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1383397
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The journal is published three times a year, in April, August, and December. It includes original, high-quality, and scientifically supported research articles and reviews in its listed fields. Academic studies unrelated to these disciplines or their theoretical and empirical foundations are not accepted. The journal's languages are Turkish and English.

Submissions are first subject to a preliminary review for format and content. Manuscripts not meeting the journal's standards are rejected by the editorial board. Manuscripts deemed suitable proceed to the peer review stage.

Each submission is sent to at least two expert reviewers. If both reviews are favorable, the article is approved for publication. In cases where one review is positive and the other negative, the editorial board decides based on the reviews or may send the manuscript to a third reviewer.

Articles published in the journal are open access and can be cited under the Creative Commons license, provided proper attribution is made.