Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh

Year 2025, Volume: 8 Issue: 4, 900 - 927, 31.12.2025

Ahmad Hasan Nury , Mohammad Sohag , Saurov Nandi Majumdar , Shawly Deb Anti

https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.1582928

Abstract

Climate change presents significant challenges globally, with Bangladesh being especially vulnerable due to its geographic and socioeconomic conditions. This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh using observational data from 22 weather stations and future projections from the MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Four precipitation indices and two temperature indices are analyzed to assess model performance by comparing observed data with GCM outputs and identifying biases. Again, bias correction is performed using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) software, applying techniques such as delta change, distribution mapping, linear scaling, power transformation, and local intensity scaling. Initial testing at the Sylhet station indicates that the delta change method is the most effective, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of zero for both temperature and precipitation. This method is subsequently applied to data from 21 additional stations, significantly improving the accuracy of future projections by aligning extreme precipitation and temperature patterns closer to observed values than raw GCM data. After bias correction, projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios reveal substantial increases in daily precipitation and maximum temperatures, with RCP 8.5 indicating a more pronounced warming trend and greater variability in precipitation. These findings provide valuable insights for water resource management and the formulation of effective climate adaptation strategies in Bangladesh.

Keywords

Global circulation model (GCM) , bias correction , CMhyd , representative concentration pathway (RCP) , precipitation , temperature

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