Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh

Ahmad Hasan Nury; Mohammad Sohag; Saurov Nandi Majumdar; Shawly Deb Anti

doi:10.35208/ert.1582928

Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh

Abstract

Climate change presents significant challenges globally, with Bangladesh being especially vulnerable due to its geographic and socioeconomic conditions. This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh using observational data from 22 weather stations and future projections from the MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Four precipitation indices and two temperature indices are analyzed to assess model performance by comparing observed data with GCM outputs and identifying biases. Again, bias correction is performed using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) software, applying techniques such as delta change, distribution mapping, linear scaling, power transformation, and local intensity scaling. Initial testing at the Sylhet station indicates that the delta change method is the most effective, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of zero for both temperature and precipitation. This method is subsequently applied to data from 21 additional stations, significantly improving the accuracy of future projections by aligning extreme precipitation and temperature patterns closer to observed values than raw GCM data. After bias correction, projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios reveal substantial increases in daily precipitation and maximum temperatures, with RCP 8.5 indicating a more pronounced warming trend and greater variability in precipitation. These findings provide valuable insights for water resource management and the formulation of effective climate adaptation strategies in Bangladesh.

Keywords

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Hydromechanics , Water Resources Engineering , Climate Change Processes

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ahmad Hasan Nury
0000-0003-1563-798X
Bangladesh

Mohammad Sohag
0009-0000-3059-6480
Bangladesh

Saurov Nandi Majumdar ^*
0009-0001-2063-6415
Bangladesh

Shawly Deb Anti
0009-0007-6330-1117
Bangladesh

Early Pub Date

November 18, 2025

Publication Date

December 31, 2025

Submission Date

November 11, 2024

Acceptance Date

January 17, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 8 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.1582928

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA24SU88ZK

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Nury, A. H., Sohag, M., Nandi Majumdar, S., & Anti, S. D. (2025). Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh. Environmental Research and Technology, 8(4), 900-927. https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.1582928

AMA

1.Nury AH, Sohag M, Nandi Majumdar S, Anti SD. Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh. ERT. 2025;8(4):900-927. doi:10.35208/ert.1582928

Chicago

Nury, Ahmad Hasan, Mohammad Sohag, Saurov Nandi Majumdar, and Shawly Deb Anti. 2025. “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Temperature in Bangladesh”. Environmental Research and Technology 8 (4): 900-927. https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.1582928.

EndNote

Nury AH, Sohag M, Nandi Majumdar S, Anti SD (December 1, 2025) Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh. Environmental Research and Technology 8 4 900–927.

IEEE

[1]A. H. Nury, M. Sohag, S. Nandi Majumdar, and S. D. Anti, “Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh”, ERT, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 900–927, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.35208/ert.1582928.

ISNAD

Nury, Ahmad Hasan - Sohag, Mohammad - Nandi Majumdar, Saurov - Anti, Shawly Deb. “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Temperature in Bangladesh”. Environmental Research and Technology 8/4 (December 1, 2025): 900-927. https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.1582928.

JAMA

1.Nury AH, Sohag M, Nandi Majumdar S, Anti SD. Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh. ERT. 2025;8:900–927.

MLA

Nury, Ahmad Hasan, et al. “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation and Temperature in Bangladesh”. Environmental Research and Technology, vol. 8, no. 4, Dec. 2025, pp. 900-27, doi:10.35208/ert.1582928.

Vancouver

1.Ahmad Hasan Nury, Mohammad Sohag, Saurov Nandi Majumdar, Shawly Deb Anti. Assessing climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh. ERT. 2025 Dec. 1;8(4):900-27. doi:10.35208/ert.1582928