Can renewable energy sources alleviate the pressure of military expenditures on the environment? Empirical evidence from Turkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 410 - 424, 30.06.2025

Emre Akusta

https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.1502424

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential of renewable energy sources to reduce the environmental impact of military expenditures in Turkiye. ARDL method is preferred in the analysis using annual data for the period 1990-2021. In addition, an interaction term is added to the model to determine the effectiveness of renewable energy sources. The results show that military expenditures have a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.260 and 0.196, respectively. Moreover, renewable energy use has a statistically significant negative impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of -0.119 and -0.120, respectively. GDP has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.162 and 0.193, respectively. Although population growth does not have a statistically significant impact in the short run, it is found to increase CO2 emissions in the long run with a coefficient of 0.095. Moreover, the interaction term shows that renewable energy use reduces the environmental impact of military expenditures in Turkiye in the short and long run with coefficients of -0.130 and -0.140, respectively. The results indicate that renewable energy use can play an important role in mitigating the environmental impacts of military expenditures.

Keywords

Military Expenditures , environmental impact , CO2 emissions , renewable energy , ARDL

References

• F. Giray, "Savunma harcamalari ve ekonomik büyüme", Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 5(1), pp. 181-199, 2004.
• V. Smil, "World History and Energy", in Encyclopedia of Energy, Elsevier, pp. 549-561, 2004.
• A. Wijeweera and M. J. Webb, "Military spending and economic growth in south Asia: A panel data analysis", Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 22(5), pp. 545-554, 2011.
• S. Charles Shaaba and N. Ngepah, "Military expenditure, industrialisation, and economic growth in Africa : Evidence from a panel causality analysis", African Journal of Business & Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pp. 29-48, 2018.
• IRENA, "Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050", International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Apr/IRENA_Report_GET_2018.pdf (Accessed Feb 02, 2024)
• K. K. Gokmenoglu, N. Taspinar, and M. M. Rahman, "Military expenditure, financial development and environmental degradation in Turkey: A comparison of CO2 emissions and ecological footprint", International Journal of Finance & Economics, vol. 26(1), pp. 986-997, 2021.
• D. N. Pellow, "Resisting global toxics: Transnational movements for environmental justice". MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007.
• SIPRI military expenditure database. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Apr. 22, 2024.
• M. F. Dörtbudak, "Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs): A new tool in counterterrorism operations?", Sensors, and Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I) Technologies for Homeland Security, Defense, and Law Enforcement XIV, SPIE, pp. 96-111, 2015.
• T. Sandler and J. George, "Military expenditure trends for 1960-2014 and what they reveal", Global Policy, vol. 7(2), pp. 174-184, 2016.
• N. Tian, D. Lopes Da Silva, L. Béraud-Sudreau, X. Liang, L. Scarazzato, and A. Assis, "Developments in military expenditure and the effects of the war in Ukraine", Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 34(5), pp. 547-562, 2023.
• D. S. Kim and J.E. Lee, "Development of terrorism in Turkey: Focusing on the periodic features and key actors", Advanced Science Letters, vol. 22(11), pp. 3672-3675, 2016.
• R. Erdağ, "Security environment and military spending of Turkey in the 2000s", Contemporary Review of the Middle East, vol. 8(1), pp. 120-139, 2021.
• World Bank-World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (Accessed Jan 15, 2024)
• Q. Wang and Y. Zhou, "Evolution and drivers of production-based carbon emissions in China and India: Differences and similarities", Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 277, Article 123958, 2020.
• Md. S. K. Sarkar, R. A. Begum, S. Sadeka, and J. J. Pereira, "Current trends and policies of energy consumption and CO2 emission from the largest Asian economies", International Journal of Global Warming, vol. 14(4), pp. 417-439, 2018.
• Y. Li, D. Xu, J. Wang, Y. Zhang, and X. Yu, "Industrial path analysis for CO2 transfers induced by final consumption: A comparison of the United States and China", Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 251, Article 119604, 2020.
• Z. S. Venter, K. Aunan, S. Chowdhury, and J. Lelieveld, "COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(32), pp. 18984-18990, 2020.
• F. Halicioglu, "An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey", Energy policy, vol. 37(3), pp. 1156-1164, 2009.
• H. Rüstemoğlu, "Environmental analysis of Turkey’s aggregated and sector-level CO2 emissions", Environmental Science and Pollution Researc, vol. 28(45), pp. 63933-63944, 2021.
• I. Ari and R. F. Yikmaz, "The role of renewable energy in achieving Turkey’s INDC", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 105, pp. 244-251, 2019.
• S. Erat, A. Telli, O. M. Ozkendir, and B. Demir, "Turkey’s energy transition from fossil-based to renewable up to 2030: Milestones, challenges and opportunities", Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, vol. 23, pp. 401-412, 2021.
• A. K. Jorgenson, B. Clark, and J. Kentor, "Militarization and the environment: A panel study of carbon dioxide emissions and the ecological footprints of nations, 1970-2000", Global Environmental Politics, vol. 10(1), pp. 7-29, 2010.
• A. Z. Isiksal, "Testing the effect of sustainable energy and military expenses on environmental degradation: evidence from the states with the highest military expenses", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 28(16), pp. 20487-20498, 2021.
• M. Bildirici, "CO2 emissions and militarization in G7 countries: panel cointegration and trivariate causality approaches", Environment and Development Economics, vol. 22(6), pp. 771-791, 2017.
• G. Hooks and C. L. Smith, "The treadmill of destruction: National sacrifice areas and native Americans", American Sociological Review, vol. 69(4), pp. 558-575, 2004.
• L. Barroso, H. Rudrick, F. Sensfuss, and P. Linares, "The green effect", IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, vol. 8(5), pp. 22-35, 2010.
• R. Li, Q. Wang, and L. Li, "Does renewable energy reduce per capita carbon emissions and per capita ecological footprint? New evidence from 130 countries", Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 49, 2023.
• M. K. Shahid et al., "A review of membrane-based desalination systems powered by renewable energy sources", Water, vol. 15(3), Article 534, 2023.
• M. Suska-Szczerbicka, "Wind energy financing tools", Econ. Sociol, vol. 3, pp. 141-160, 2010.
• C. Kesbiç and E. T. Bozduman, "Türkiye’de sektör bazında enerji tüketiminin çevre kirliliği üzerine etkisi", Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 19(2), pp. 289-299, 2021.
• J. Chontanawat, "Relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in ASEAN: Cointegration and causality model", Energy Reports, vol. 6, pp. 660-665, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.09.046
• M. Çetin and Ö. Yüksel, "Türkiye ekonomisinde enerji tüketiminin karbon emisyonu üzerindeki etkisi", Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 5(2), pp. 169-186, 2018.
• U. Al-Mulali and C. N. B. Che Sab, "Electricity consumption, CO 2 emission, and economic growth in the Middle East", Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, vol. 13(5), pp. 257-263, 2018,
• S.J. Lee and S.H. Yoo, "Energy consumption, CO 2 emission, and economic growth: Evidence from Mexico", Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, vol. 11(8), pp. 711-717, 2016.
• S. R. Lee and S.H. Yoo, "Energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, and economic growth in Korea: A causality analysis", Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, vol. 11(5), pp. 412-417, 2016.
• I. Dogan and N. Topalli, "Milli gelir, karbon emisyonu ve enerji tüketimi: Türkiye için dogrusal ve dogrusal olmayan nedensellik analizi", Business and Economics Research Journal, vol. 7(1), p. 107, 2016.
• G. Sayar Özkan and M. Erdemli̇, "Ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketiminin çevre kirliliğine etkisi: Panel veri analizi", Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 1(2), pp. 19-37, 2017. https://doi.org/10.30711/utead.342589.
• I. Ozturk and A. Acaravci, "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 14(9), pp. 3220-3225, 2010.
• M. Bouznit and M. del P. Pablo-Romero, "CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria", Energy policy, vol. 96, pp. 93-104, 2016.
• N. Ahmad and L. Du, "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach", Energy, vol. 123, pp. 521-537, 2017.
• J. I. Mikayilov, M. Galeotti, and F. J. Hasanov, "The impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions in Azerbaijan", Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 197, pp. 1558-1572, 2018.
• K. K. Gokmenoglu and M. Sadeghieh, "Financial development, CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption and economic growth: The case of Turkey", Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment, vol. 38(4), pp. 7-28, 2019.
• M. Kahia, M. Ben Jebli, and M. Belloumi, "Analysis of the impact of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in 12 MENA countries", Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, vol. 21, pp. 871-885, 2019.
• Y. Chen, Z. Wang, and Z. Zhong, "CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production and foreign trade in China", Renewable energy, vol. 131, pp. 208-216, 2019.
• A. Tamazian, J. P. Chousa, and K. C. Vadlamannati, "Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation: Evidence from BRIC countries", Energy Policy, vol. 37(1), pp. 246-253, 2009.
• M. A. Boutabba, "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy", Economic Modelling, vol. 40, pp. 33-41, 2014.
• U. K. Pata, "The effect of urbanization and industrialization on carbon emissions in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing procedure", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 25(8), pp. 7740-7747, 2018.
• M. Shahbaz, S. J. H. Shahzad, M. K. Mahalik, and S. Hammoudeh, "Does globalisation worsen environmental quality in developed economies?", Environmental Modeling & Assessment, vol. 23(2), pp. 141-156, 2018.
• Ş. Apaydın, "Küreselleşmenin ekolojik ayakizi üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği", Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 5(1), pp. 23-42, 2020.
• L. Wang, X. V. Vo, M. Shahbaz, and A. Ak, "Globalization and carbon emissions: Is there any role of agriculture value-added, financial development, and natural resource rent in the aftermath of COP21?", Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 268, Article 110712, 2020.
• A. Karasoy, "Küreselleşme, sanayileşme ve şehirleşmenin Türkiye’nin ekolojik ayak izine etkisinin genişletilmiş ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmesi", Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 14(1), pp. 208-231, 2021.
• Ü. Kurt, G. Can, and F. Kiliç, "Türkiye’de küreselleşmenin çevresel tahribat üzerindeki etkisi", Çevre, Enerji ve Sürdürülebilirlik Ekonomik Bir Değerlendirme, pp.53-70, Gazi Kitabevi, 2022.
• T. Yildiz and T. B. Göktürk, "Sanayileşme, şehirleşme ve çevre kirliliği arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı", Journal of Academic Value Studies, vol. 5(2), pp. 217-229, 2019.
• P. L.h, "Globalization, financial development, and environmental degradation in the presence of environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from ASEAN-5 countries", 2019.
• S. Ahmed, K. Alam, A. Rashid, and J. Gow, "Militarisation, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Myanmar", Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 31(6), pp. 615-641, 2020.
• Z. Ahmed, M. Ahmad, M. Murshed, A. I. Vaseer, and D. Kirikkaleli, "The trade-off between energy consumption, economic growth, militarization, and CO 2 emissions: Does the treadmill of destruction exist in the modern world?", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 29, pp. 18063-18076, 2022.
• N. B. Afia and S. Harbi, "The relationship between CO2 emissions and military effort", Journal of Economics Studies and Research, vol. 2018, Article 342225, 2018.
• F. Beşel, V. İnal, and M. Aydın, "Askeri harcamalar ve yeşil büyüme ilişkisi: Ampirik bir analiz", İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 7(17), pp. 159-172, 2022.
• M. E. Bildirici, "The effects of militarization on biofuel consumption and CO2 emission", Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 152, pp. 420-428, 2017.
• S. Erdogan, A. Gedikli, E. İ. Çevik, and M. A. Öncü, "Does military expenditure impact environmental sustainability in developed Mediterranean countries?", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 29(21), pp. 31612-31630, 2022.
• P. A. Kwakwa, "The effect of industrialization, militarization, and government expenditure on carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 29(56), pp. 85229-85242, 2022.
• B. A. Neila, "The relationship between military expenditure, military personnel, economic growth, and the environment", International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering, vol. 10(4), pp. 1059-1064, 2016.
• U. Qayyum, S. Anjum, and Samina Sabir, "Armed conflict, militarization and ecological footprint: Empirical evidence from South Asia", Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 281, Article 125299, 2021.
• G. Zandi, M. Haseeb, and I. S. Z. Abidin, "The impact of democracy, corruption and military expenditure on environmental degradation: Evidence from top six ASEAN countries", Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, vol. 7(4), pp. 333-340, 2019.
• B. Ozcan and N. Apergis, "The impact of internet use on air pollution: Evidence from emerging countries", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 25(5), pp. 4174-4189, 2018.
• S. Ullah, Z. Andlib, M. T. Majeed, S. Sohail, and M. Z. Chishti, "Asymmetric effects of militarization on economic growth and environmental degradation: Fresh evidence from Pakistan and India", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol. 28(8), pp. 9484-9497, 2021.
• Ü. Kurt and C. Kılıç, "Küreselleşmenin savunma harcamalari üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye için VAR analizi", Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 21(1), 2019.
• F. Erdoğan, "Cumhuriyet döneminde savunma harcamaları ve çevre kirliliği ilişkisi üzerine bir inceleme", JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, vol. 7(2), pp. 28-37, 2022.
• F. F. Adedoyin, I. Ozturk, F. V. Bekun, P. O. Agboola, and M. O. Agboola, "Renewable and non-renewable energy policy simulations for abating emissions in a complex economy: Evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL", Renewable Energy, vol. 177, pp. 1408-1420, 2021.
• M. E. Hossain, S. Rej, S. M. Saha, J. C. Onwe, N. Nwulu, F. V. Bekun, and A. Taha, "Can energy efficiency help in achieving carbon-neutrality pledges? A developing country perspective using dynamic ARDL simulations", Sustainability, vol. 14(1)3, p. 7537, 2022.
• S. Johansen and K. Juselius, "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52(2), pp. 169-210, 1990.
• C. W. Granger and P. Newbold, ‘Spurious regressions in econometrics’, Journal of econometrics, vol. 2(2), pp. 111-120, 1974.
• D. A. Dickey and W. A. Fuller, "Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 74(366a), pp. 427-431, 1979.
• P. C. B. Phillips and P. Perron, "Testing for a unit root in time series regression", Biometrika, vol. 75(2), pp. 335-346, 1988.
• D. Kwiatkowski, P. C. B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin, "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root", Journal of Econometrics, vol. 54(1-3), pp. 159-178, 1992.
• M. H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships", Journal of applied econometrics, vol. 16(3), pp. 289-326, 2001.
• R. F. Engle and C. W. Granger, "Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing", Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, Vol. 55(2), pp. 251-276, 1987.
• P. C. B. Phillips and S. Ouliaris, "Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration", Econometrica, vol. 58(1), pp. 165-193, 1990.
• R. L. Brown, J. Durbin, and J. M. Evans, "Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, vol. 37(2), pp. 149-163, 1975.
• M. Şimşek and C. Kadılar, "Türkiye’nin ithalat talebi fonksiyonunun sinir testi yaklaşimi ile ebütünleme analizi", Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, vol. 5(1), 2004.
• E. Esen, S. Yıldırım, and S. F. Kostakoğlu, "Feldstein-Horioka hipotezinin Türkiye ekonomisi için sınanması: ARDL modeli uygulaması", Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7(1), pp. 251-267, 2012.