Perceptual Deterrence Theory

Year 2026, Volume: 21 Issue: 1 , 441 - 472 , 27.04.2026

Şerif Ahmet Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.58820/eruhfd.1878208

https://izlik.org/JA74TD25ZN

Abstract

Perceptual deterrence theory argues that changes in the certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment do not affect deterrence by default. The deterrent effect of changes in criminal policy depends on potential offenders becoming aware of these changes and adjusting their behavior accordingly. Therefore, deterrence is the result of a sociological and psychological process that occurs after the change of the features of punishment. In fact, in some contexts, the deterrent effect of uncertainty about the likelihood of being caught and punished may be greater. For this reason, the perceptual deterrence theory has shifted its focus from the characteristics of punishment to potential offenders' perceptions in this regard. The potential offender who will decide whether to commit a crime based on the likelihood of being caught and punished and the severity of the punishment is likely to have incomplete or even incorrect information. Incomplete and inaccurate information may encourage potential offenders to continue committing crimes, but it may also be manipulated to become a tool that reinforces deterrence. The perceptual deterrence theory provides a new and effective strategy to the policymakers aiming to enhance deterrent effects.

Keywords

Punishment Perception , Deterrence , Risk , Uncertainty , Ambiguity

Ethical Statement

The author has not declared any conflict of interest or shared interest.

Algısal Caydırıcılık Teorisi

https://izlik.org/JA74TD25ZN

Abstract

Algısal caydırıcılık teorisi, cezanın kesinliği, sertliği ve hızında yaşanan değişimlerin caydırıcılığı otomatik olarak etkilemeyeceğini kabul eder. Ceza politikasındaki değişimlerin caydırıcılığı etkileyebilmesi, bu değişikliklerin potansiyel faillerce öğrenilmesi ve davranışlarını değiştirmelerine neden olmasına bağlıdır. Dolayısıyla caydırıcılık, cezanın özelliklerinin değişmesi sonrasında yaşanan sosyolojik ve psikolojik bir sürecin ürünüdür. Öyle ki, bazı durumlarda yakalanma ve cezalandırılma ihtimalindeki belirsizliğin caydırıcı etkisi daha yük-sek olabilir. Bu nedenle algısal caydırıcılık teorisi odak noktasını ceza adaletinden potansiyel faillerin bu konudaki algılarına çevirmiştir. Yakalanma ve cezalandırılma ihtimaliyle alacağı cezanın ağırlığına göre suç işleme kararını verecek olan potansiyel fail, eksik ve hatta yanlış bilgilere sahip olabilir. Eksik ve yanlış bilgiler potansiyel faillerin suç işlemeye devam etmelerine neden olabileceği gibi, manipüle edilerek caydırıcılığı artıracak bir enstrümana dönüşmeleri de mümkündür. Algısal caydırıcılık teorisi, caydırıcılığı artırmayı hedefleyen politika yapıcılara yeni ve verimli bir imkan sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

Ceza Algısı , Caydırıcılık , Risk , Belirsizlik , Muğlaklık

Ethical Statement

Yazar tarafından herhangi bir çıkar çatışması veya ortak çıkar beyan edilmemiştir.

Supporting Institution

Bulunmamaktadır.

Thanks

Bulunmamaktadır.

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