INJURY RISK AND FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY IN GLOBAL FOOTBALL

Abstract

Abstract Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic damage of football player injuries on club balance sheets, the internal risk management gaps neglected in the literature, and the strategic role of GPS-based load tracking as a financial protection shield. Methods: Thematic review and document analysis, which are qualitative research methods, were employed in this research. A total of 41 international academic works, sector reports, and legal regulations, including main sources covering the 2015-2026 period and their referenced root studies, were examined in depth and subjected to cross-examination. Results: The findings reveal that the wage-to-revenue ratio in Turkish football violates financial fair play limits at 89%, career-ending injuries in Europe have increased by 100%, and a severe injury reduces a player's active market value by 2.29%. Furthermore, it was determined that temperature increases lead to indirect revenue loss by reducing game intensity, and existing financial stress models in the literature are not integrated with operational health data. Conclusion: For the modern football industry, positioned at the intersection of financial, operational, and environmental risks, AI and GPS-supported injury prevention systems are not merely sports performance tools. They are mandatory asset management strategies required by international accounting standards and corporate governance principles to prevent "dead money" costs. [The English Extended Abstract is available at the end of the article.] Keywords: Sports Economics, Financial Sustainability, GPS Technologies, S-Score, Climate Risk.

Keywords

• Sports Economics
• Financial Sustainability
• GPS Technologies
• S-Score
• Climate Risk

KÜRESEL FUTBOLDA SAKATLIK RİSKİ VE FİNANSAL SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK

Abstract

Öz Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı; futbolcu yaralanmalarının kulüp bilançoları üzerindeki makro-ekonomik tahribatını, literatürde ihmal edilen içsel risk yönetimi boşluklarını ve GPS tabanlı yük takibinin finansal bir koruma kalkanı olarak stratejik rolünü analiz etmektir. Yöntem: Araştırmada nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden tematik derleme ve doküman analizi kullanılmıştır. 2015-2026 dönemini kapsayan ana kaynaklar ve bu kaynakların referans verdiği kök çalışmalar dahil olmak üzere, toplam 41 adet uluslararası akademik eser, sektör raporu ve yasal düzenleme derinlemesine incelenerek çapraz karşılaştırmaya tabi tutulmuştur. Bulgular: Araştırma sonucunda, Türk futbolunda ücret/gelir rasyosunun %89 ile finansal fair play sınırlarını ihlal ettiği, Avrupa’da kariyer bitiren sakatlıkların %100 artış gösterdiği ve ciddi bir sakatlığın oyuncunun aktif piyasa değerini %2,29 oranında erittiği belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, iklim değişikliğine bağlı sıcaklık artışlarının oyun yoğunluğunu düşürerek dolaylı gelir kaybına yol açtığı ve literatürdeki mevcut finansal stres modellerinin operasyonel sağlık verileriyle entegre edilmediği saptanmıştır. Sonuç: Finansal, operasyonel ve çevresel risklerin kesişim noktasında bulunan modern futbol endüstrisi için yapay zeka ve GPS destekli sakatlık önleme sistemleri, yalnızca sportif bir performans aracı değildir. Bu sistemler, bütçelerdeki "ölü para" maliyetini engelleyen, uluslararası muhasebe standartları ve kurumsal yönetişim ilkeleri bağlamında zorunlu bir varlık yönetimi stratejisidir.

Keywords

• Spor Ekonomisi
• Finansal Sürdürülebilirlik
• GPS Teknolojileri
• S-Score
• İklim Riski

References

1. AKŞAR, T. (2023). Kulüpler İçin Yeni Kavram: Finansal Sürdürülebilirlik. FutbolEkonomi.
2. AKTAŞ, H., VE MUTLU, S. (2016). Futbolda Finansal Sürdürülebilirlik Kapsamında “Finansal Fair Play Başa Baş Kuralı” ve Beşiktaş Futbol Kulübü Üzerinde Bir Uygulama. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(2), 223-256.
3. ALTMAN, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
4. ALTMAN, E. I. (2000). Predicting financial distress of companies: Revisiting the Z-score and Zeta® models. Stern School of Business, New York University.
5. ANDREFF, W. (2007). French Football: A Financial Crisis Rooted in Weak Governance: A Financial Crisis Rooted in Weak Governance. Journal of Sports Economics, 8(6), 652-661. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002506297021 (Original work published 2007)
6. AXIS CAPITAL (BONWICK, G., VE DUGGAN, E.). (2025). European football's global popularity is rising, along with player injuries. https://www.axiscapital.com
7. BOZDOĞAN, A. VE EROĞLU, H. (2023). Futbol Branşında Görülen Sakatlıkların ve Sakatlık Bölgelerinin Mevkilere Göre Belirlenmesi / Determining Disabilities in Football Branch And Disability Zones According to Location: Determination of Injuries in Football. Anatolia Sport Research, 4(3), 8–20. Retrieved from https://www.anatoliasr.org/index.php/asr/article/view/82
8. CARDOSO-MARINHO B, BARBOSA A, BOLLING C, MARQUES JP, FIGUEIREDO P AND BRITO J (2022) The perception of injury risk and prevention among football players: A systematic review. Front. Sports Act. Living 4:1018752. doi: 10.3389/fspor.2022.1018752

9. CHANG, V., SAJEEV, S., XU, Q. A., TAN, M., & WANG, H. (2024). Football Analytics: Assessing the Correlation between Workload, Injury and Performance of Football Players in the English Premier League. Applied Sciences, 14(16), 7217. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167217
10. DALLMEYER, S., STEINFELDT, H., HÜBERS, T., PIETZONKA, M., & BREUER, C. (2025). Monetising misfortune: The financial consequences of injuries in professional football teams. BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine, 11, e002437. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2024-002437
11. DAYI, F. (2019). Futbol Kulüplerinde Finansal Risk Analizi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 111, 357-386. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.493778
12. DAYI, F., & MOUSA, I. R. A. (2025). Financial sustainability of football clubs: An evaluation of debts of four major clubs in Türkiye. Journal of the Human and Social Science Researches, 14(2), 807–824. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1655900
13. DELOITTE. (2025). Annual review of football finance 2025. https://www.deloitte.com
14. DEMIRAN, D., & ÖZBEY, S. (2025). Sporda Dijital Dönüşüm Süreci ve Yeni Uygulamalar. Turkuaz Uluslararası Sosyo-Ekonomik Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(2), 270-294. https://doi.org/10.70506/eisrcdergi.1820671
15. EKSTRAND, J. (2013). Keeping your top players on the pitch: The key to football medicine at a professional level. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 47(12), 723–724. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2013-092771
16. EKSTRAND, J., HÄGGLUND, M., & WALDÉN, M. (2011). Injury incidence and injury patterns in professional football: the UEFA injury study. British journal of sports medicine, 45(7), 553–558. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.2009.060582
17. Environmental sustainability in football: Position paper. (2024, February).
18. EVANS, R. (2023). The ‘S-score’ of financial sustainability for professional football clubs. Birkbeck Sport Business Centre Research Paper Series, 15(1).
19. FERNÁNDEZ-VILLARINO, R. (2021). Sustainability in the football industry: An approach to the gap between theoretical formulation and practical application, through the results of the social fair play project. Heliyon, 7(6), e07318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07318
20. FOUSEKIS, A., FOUSEKIS, K., FOUSEKIS, G., GKRILIAS, P., MICHAILIDIS, Y., MANDROUKAS, A., & METAXAS, T. (2025). Assessment of Injury Risk in Professional Soccer Players: A Long-Term Study. Applied Sciences, 15(9), 5039. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15095039
21. FULLER, C. W., JUNGE, A., & DVORAK, J. (2012). Risk management: FIFA's approach for protecting the health of football players. British journal of sports medicine, 46(1), 11–17. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2011-090634
22. GABBETT, T. J. (2016). The training–injury prevention paradox: Should athletes be training smarter and harder? British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(5), 273–280. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2015-095788
23. GOUVEIA, M., PINHO, M., & PIRES, P. B. (2025). Occupational Safety and Injury Risk in Professional Football: The Portuguese Framework in Comparative Perspective. Safety, 11(4), 113. https://doi.org/10.3390/safety11040113
24. HAUTBOIS, C., & DESBORDES, M. (2023). Sustainability in Sport: Sport, Part of the Problem … and of the Solution. Sustainability, 15(15), 11820. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511820
25. HAXHIU, B., MURTEZANI, A., ZAHITI, B., SHALAJ, I., & SLLAMNIKU, S. (2015). Risk Factors for Injuries in Professional Football Players. Folia medica, 57(2), 138–143. https://doi.org/10.1515/folmed-2015-0033
26. MAGLIO, R., & REY, A. (2017). The impairment test for football players: The missing link between sports and financial performance? Palgrave Communications, 3, Article 17055. https://doi.org/10.1057/palcomms.2017.55
27. MAGUIRE, K., & PHILIPPOU, C. (2023, June 20). Still ill? Assessing the financial sustainability of football. Department for Culture, Media & Sport. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/research-report-still-ill-assessing-the-financial-sustainability-of-football-2023
28. MAVIBAŞ, M. (2024). Spor Endüstrisinde Finansal Yapılar ve Stratejiler: Sürdürülebilirlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Akademik Kitap Bölümü, özgür yayınları. Bölüm 8, 161-187.
29. MORROW S (2013) Football Club Financial Reporting: Time for a New Model? Sport, Business and Management: An International Journal, 3 (4), pp. 297-311. https://doi.org/10.1108/SBM-06-2013-0014
30. MRHARI, E. M., & HASSSOUNI, M. (2023). Does stock market take into consideration football players’ injuries?. Research Papers in Economics and Finance, 7(1), 89-100. https://doi.org/10.18559/ref.2023.1.476
31. NISHI, & DHEERAJ. (2025). Risk management strategies for enhancing resilience and sustainability in sports organizations. EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR), 11(9). https://doi.org/10.36713/epra2013
32. ÖNER, İ., KARATAŞ, Ö., & ÖZTÜRK KARATAŞ, E. (2024). FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY IN FOOTBALL CLUBS. Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(14), 289-304. https://doi.org/10.56677/mkuefder.1575336
33. RENZI, A., & TARAGONI, P. (2023). The football industry: A literature review and future research avenues in the risk management perspective. Corporate Governance and Research & Development Studies, 2, 115–152. https://doi.org/10.3280/cgrds2-2023oa16952
34. RUBIO-MARTIN, G., GONZÁLEZ SÁNCHEZ, F., MANUEL-GARCIA, C. M., ET AL. (2026). The effect of injury risk on players value: Evidence from the main European leagues. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-06511-w
35. SCHWARZ, E., DUFFIELD, R., LU, D., FULLAGAR, H., AUS DER FÜNTEN, K., SKORSKI, S., TRÖß, T., HADJI, A., & MEYER, T. (2025). Associations between injury occurrence and environmental temperatures in the Australian and German professional football leagues. Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.), 9(1), e364. https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000364
36. SLOANE, PETER. (1971), The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 18, (2), 121-46
37. STATISTA RESEARCH DEPARTMENT. (2026). European Football Industry Revenues and Injury Statistics 1996-2026. Statista.
38. SZYMANSKI, S. (2017). Entry into exit: Insolvency in English professional football. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 64(4), 419–444. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12134
39. TÜRKIYE FUTBOL FEDERASYONU (TFF). (2022). Kulüp Lisans ve Finansal Sürdürülebilirlik Talimatı. TFF Yayınları.
40. UEFA. (2022). UEFA Club Licensing and Financial Sustainability Regulations. UEFA. https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0274-14dc03ef33b9-3e2caa872860-1000/20220408_club_licensing_and_financial_sustainability_regulations_2022-en.pdf
41. WINDT, J., & GABBETT, T. J. (2017). How do training and competition workloads relate to injury? The workload-injury aetiology model. British journal of sports medicine, 51(5), 428–435. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2016-096040
42. YILMAZ, A. H. (2020). Endüstriyel Futbolda Finansal İstikrarın Önemi. Fiscaoeconomia, 4(2), 498-523. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.2020.02.012.