Modern Politik Konjonktür Hareketleri Teorisi: Rasyonel Beklentileri İçeren Politik Konjonktür Hareketleri

Abstract

Politik Konjonktür Hareketleri Teorisi taraftarlarına göre siyasal iktidarlar miyopik seçmenleri kendi çıkarları doğrultusunda yönlendirebilirler. Ancak rasyonel beklentiler görüşünün popüler olması ile birlikte bu iddia ciddi anlamda eleştiriye uğramıştır. Bu durum Politik Konjonktür Hareketleri Teorisi’nin gelişimini kısa süreli de olsa sekteye uğratmıştır. Ancak gerek gelişmiş gerekse gelişmekte olan ülke verilerini test eden ampirik çalışmalar rasyonel davranış varsayımının geçerli olması halinde de Politik Konjonktür Hareketleri Teorisi’nin açıklayıcı olabileceğine ilişkin pozitif bulgular elde etmişlerdir. Yeni dönemde yapılan çalışmalar literatürün modern yaklaşım olarak ifade edilen konumunda yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı modern yaklaşım içerisinde yer alan teorileri sistematize ederek analiz etmektir

Keywords

• Modern Politik Konjonktür Hareketleri Rasyonel Fırsatçı Model Rasyonel Partizan Model Ekonomi ile Siyaset Arasındaki İlişki

Abstract

According to supporters of the Political Business Cycle Theory, political powers can direct their short-sighted electorate in line with their own interests. However, ever since the idea of rational expectations has gained in popularity, that postulation has been confronted with serious criticism, and consequently the development of Political Business Cycle Theory suffered a setback, be it only for a short period of time. Empirical studies carried out in order to test the data of developed and developing countries yielded positive findings that can be derived from Political Business Cycle Theory even under the condition that the assumption of rational expectations is correct. Recent work on the subject was carried out within the scope of what is known in literature as the modern approach

Keywords

• Modern Political Business Cycle Rational Opportunist Model Rational Partizan Model Relation Between Economics-Politics

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