Estimation of Primary Energy Consumption for a Panel of Five ASEAN Countries by Models Derived from Trend Analysis

Abstract

This work employed trend analysis as a simple and practical modeling technique to derive estimating models for the primary energy consumption (PEC). A panel of five ASEAN countries, known as the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) were selected as the study's case. Various statistical indices were then employed to test the validity and robustness of the derived models. In addition, the PECs of the ASEAN-5 countries were estimated by the derived models from 2025 to 2035. The results showed that all of the derived models could achieve up to 97% accuracy in their estimations. Additionally, the projected results revealed that the ASEAN-5 countries' total PEC would increase at a rate of 1.82% annually and 20.33% overall by 2035, when compared to the data in 2023. In summary, this paper concludes that models for estimating the PEC may be derived efficiently using the trend analysis.

Keywords

• Primary energy consumption
• Trend analysis
• Modelling
• Estimation

Trend Analizinden Türetilen Modeller ile Beş ASEAN Ülkesinin Birincil Enerji Tüketiminin Tahmini

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, birincil enerji tüketimine (PEC) yönelik tahmin modelleri türetmek amacıyla basit ve pratik bir modelleme tekniği olarak trend analizi kullanılmıştır. ASEAN-5 (Endonezya, Filipinler, Malezya, Singapur ve Tayland) olarak bilinen beş ASEAN ülkesinden oluşan bir grup ülke, çalışmanın örneklemi olarak seçilmiştir. Ayrıca, türetilen modellerin geçerliliğini ve sağlamlığını test etmek için de çeşitli istatistiksel endeksler kullanılmıştır. Ek olarak, ASEAN-5 ülkelerinin PEC'leri türetilen modeller tarafından 2025'ten 2035'e kadar tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, türetilen tüm modellerin tahminlerinde %97'ye varan doğruluk elde edebileceğini göstermiştir. Tahmin sonuçları, ASEAN-5 ülkelerinin toplam PEC'nin 2023'teki verilerle karşılaştırıldığında 2035 yılına kadar yıllık %1,82 ve genel olarak %20,33 oranında artacağını ortaya koymuştur. Özetle, bu çalışma, PEC'ni tahmin etmek için trend analizi kullanılarak modellerin verimli bir şekilde türetilebileceği sonucuna varmıştır.

Keywords

• Birincil enerji tüketimi
• Trend analizi
• Modelleme
• Tahmin

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