İran ekonomisinde borsanın enflasyon oranına etkisi

Year 2023, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 337 - 348, 29.12.2023

Masoud Saadatmehr

Abstract

Enflasyon ve hisse senedi piyasası arasındaki ilişkinin farklı ülkelerdeki çalışmaları, bu ilişkinin farklı ekonomik yapılar nedeniyle ülkeden ülkeye değişiklik gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada İran'da hisse senedi piyasasının enflasyon kontrolü üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme yöntemi (ARDL) yardımıyla 1990-2019 yıllarına ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Araştırma modelinde bağımlı değişken olarak enflasyon oranı ve likidite değişkenleri, döviz kuru ve gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ile borsa işlemlerinin değeri bağımsız değişkenleri oluşturmuştur. Sonuçlar, likidite, döviz kuru ve GSYİH değişkenlerinin olumlu yönde etkilendiğini ve borsadaki işlem değerinin enflasyon üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca borsada işlem gören değerin yüzde bir oranında artması, İran ekonomisindeki enflasyon oranını yüzde 1,47 oranında azaltmaktadır. Bu etki tam olarak 1.5 yıl sonra fark edilir. Sonuç olarak borsa, enflasyonu kontrol etmek için diğer parasal ve finansal araçlarla birlikte bir araç olarak kullanılabilir.

Keywords

borsa, enflasyon oranı, döviz kuru, likidite

The impact of the stock market on the inflation rate in Iran's economy

Abstract

Studies of the relationship between inflation and the stock market in different countries suggest that this relationship varies from country to country due to different economic structures. Therefore, in the present study, the effect of stock market on inflation control in Iran has been investigated. For this purpose, the annual data of 1990-2019 have been used with the help of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL). In the research model, inflation rate as a dependent variable and the value of stock market transactions along with liquidity variables, exchange rate and gross domestic product formed independent variables. The results showed that the variables of liquidity, exchange rate and GDP are positively affected and the value of trading in the stock market has a negative effect on inflation. Also, a one percent increase in the value of trading in the stock market reduces the inflation rate in the Iranian economy by 1.47 percent. This effect is fully realized after 1.5 years. As a result, the stock market can be used as a tool alongside other monetary and financial instruments to control inflation

Keywords

stock market, inflation rate, exchange rate, liquidity

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