KIRGIZİSTANDA PARASAL AKTARIM MEKANİZMASI: EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Yıl 2019, , 35 - 60, 25.01.2019

Akmaral Mazhitova Barış Gök

https://doi.org/10.18354/esam.506672

Öz

Bu
çalışmada Kırgızistan Merkez Bankasının parasal aktarım mekanizmalarından
geleneksel faiz oranı kanalı, banka kredi kanalı ve döviz kuru kanalı ele
alınmıştır. Kırgızistan'da para politikasının reel üretim ve fiyatlar genel
seviyesini hangi kanalla etkilediğini bulmak için VAR yöntemi kapsamında
etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırma analizleri, Ocak 2000'den Kasım 2016'ya kadar
olan aylık veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, Kırgızistan’da
geleneksel faiz oranı kanalının fiyatlar üzerinde etkili olduğu ama milli gelir
üzerinde etkisiz olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Kırgızistan gibi gelişmekte olan
ve dışa açık ülkelerde önemli rol oynamakta olan parasal aktarımın döviz kuru
kanalı enflasyon üzerinde etkili olmaktayken, reel gayrisafi milli hasıla
büyümesi üzerinde etkisiz kalmıştır. Banka kredi kanalı için yapılan analiz
sonucuna göre, hem enflasyon oranının hem de reel milli hasıla büyümesinin
bankaların reel kredi hacmindeki bir standart sapmalık şoka karşı tepkileri pozitif
yönde olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması, Parasal Aktarım Kanalları, VAR Modeli, Faiz Oranı Kanalı, Döviz Kuru Kanalı, Banka Kredi Kanalı, kırgızistan

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN KYRGYZSTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Öz

This study focuses on
traditional interest rate channel, bank lending channel and exchange rate
channel of monetary transmission mechanisms of the Central Bank of Kyrgyzstan.
To determine the channel through which monetary policy effects real output and
price level in Kyrgyzstan, employing monthly data from January 2000 to November
2016, impulse-response and variance decomposition analyses within the vector
autoregressive approach (VAR) is utilized. As a result of the study, it is
found that the traditional interest rate channel is effective on the prices but
it is ineffective on the output in Kyrgyzstan. The exchange rate channel of
monetary transmission which plays an important role in emerging and open
countries like Kyrgyzstan, is found to be effective on the inflation rate but
ineffective on the real GDP growth. According to the analysis for the bank
lending channel, both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth responded
positively to one standard deviation shock in the real credit volume of the
banks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Monetary Transmission Channels, VAR Model, Interest Rate Channel, Exchange Rate Channel, Bank Lending Channel, kyrgyzstan

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