KIRGIZİSTANDA PARASAL AKTARIM MEKANİZMASI: EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışmada Kırgızistan Merkez Bankasının parasal aktarım mekanizmalarından geleneksel faiz oranı kanalı, banka kredi kanalı ve döviz kuru kanalı ele alınmıştır. Kırgızistan'da para politikasının reel üretim ve fiyatlar genel seviyesini hangi kanalla etkilediğini bulmak için VAR yöntemi kapsamında etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırma analizleri, Ocak 2000'den Kasım 2016'ya kadar olan aylık veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, Kırgızistan’da geleneksel faiz oranı kanalının fiyatlar üzerinde etkili olduğu ama milli gelir üzerinde etkisiz olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Kırgızistan gibi gelişmekte olan ve dışa açık ülkelerde önemli rol oynamakta olan parasal aktarımın döviz kuru kanalı enflasyon üzerinde etkili olmaktayken, reel gayrisafi milli hasıla büyümesi üzerinde etkisiz kalmıştır. Banka kredi kanalı için yapılan analiz sonucuna göre, hem enflasyon oranının hem de reel milli hasıla büyümesinin bankaların reel kredi hacmindeki bir standart sapmalık şoka karşı tepkileri pozitif yönde olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması,Parasal Aktarım Kanalları,VAR Modeli,Faiz Oranı Kanalı,Döviz Kuru Kanalı,Banka Kredi Kanalı,kırgızistan

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN KYRGYZSTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Öz

This study focuses on traditional interest rate channel, bank lending channel and exchange rate channel of monetary transmission mechanisms of the Central Bank of Kyrgyzstan. To determine the channel through which monetary policy effects real output and price level in Kyrgyzstan, employing monthly data from January 2000 to November 2016, impulse-response and variance decomposition analyses within the vector autoregressive approach (VAR) is utilized. As a result of the study, it is found that the traditional interest rate channel is effective on the prices but it is ineffective on the output in Kyrgyzstan. The exchange rate channel of monetary transmission which plays an important role in emerging and open countries like Kyrgyzstan, is found to be effective on the inflation rate but ineffective on the real GDP growth. According to the analysis for the bank lending channel, both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth responded positively to one standard deviation shock in the real credit volume of the banks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monetary Transmission Mechanism,Monetary Transmission Channels,VAR Model,Interest Rate Channel,Exchange Rate Channel,Bank Lending Channel,kyrgyzstan

Kaynakça

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