DIŞSAL TEKNOLOJİK ŞOKLAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ
Year 2013,
Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 47 - 69, 01.01.2013
Yrd. Doç. Dr. Kurtuluş Bozkurt
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Reel Konjonktür Teorisi (RBC) ekseninde teknolojik şokların özelliklede dışsal teknolojik şokların reel ekonominin işleyişini ne şekilde etkilediğini teorik olarak tespit etmek ve Türkiye’nin de dahil olduğu 12 gelişmekte olan ülkenin (GOÜ) veya başka bir deyişle Yükselen Ekonominin büyüme trendleri ile dışsal teknolojik şoklar arasında ampirik boyutta iktisadi ve istatistiki anlamda anlamlı bir ilişki olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Çalışma kapsamında; Dow Jones tarafından Mayıs 2010 tarihinde belirlenmiş olan 35 yükselen piyasa ekonomisinden çalışmanın incelemiş olduğu 1980- 2008 dönemine ilişkin sağlıklı verilere ulaşılabilen 12 ülke örneklem grubu olarak belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen analiz bulguları GOÜ’lerin önemli ölçüde dış kaynak ve teknoloji bağımlısı oldukları ve dışsal olarak tanımlanmış teknolojik şoklardan da önemli ölçüde etkilendiklerini göstermektedir. Ayrıca çalışma kapsamında yatırıma özgü teknolojik değişmelerin kısa dönemde konjonktür hareketlerindeki değişmenin önemli bir kısmını açıklama gücüne sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
References
- Abramovitz, M. (1956), “Resources and Output Trends in the United States since 1870”, American Economic Review, 46, 5-23.
- Aghion, P. and HOWİTT, P. (1992), “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction”, Econometrica, 60 (2), 323-351.
- Anderson, T. W. and Hsiao, C. (1981), “Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, 598–606.
- Arellano, M. (2003), “Panel Data Econometrics”, New York: Oxford University Press.
- Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
- Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error- Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-52.
- Baltagi, B. (2001), “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data”, Chichester, Eng.: John Wiley and Sons Inc., 292.
- Basant, R. and Fikkert, B. (1996), “The Effects of R&D, Foreign Technology Purchase and Domestic and International Spillovers on Productivity in Indian Firms”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (2), 187-199.
- Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. Blundell, R., Bond, S. and Windmeijer, F. (2000), Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimators, The Institute for Fiscal Studies Working Paper, No: 12.
- Bozkurt, K. (2007), “İçsel Büyüme Modelleri Bağlamında Türk İmalat Sanayinde Teknolojik Gelişme
- ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (513), 71-81.
- Bozkurt, K. (2008), “Türk İmalat Sanayisinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve İhracat Performansı”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumılar, 45 (522), 91-103.
- Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M, and Rebelo, S. (1996), “Sectoral Solow Residuals”, European Economic Review, 40 (3-5), 861-869.
- Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. and Rebelo, S. (1993), “Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle”, Journal of Political Economy, 101 (82), 245-273.
- Christiansen, L. E. (2008), “Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data”, IMF Working Paper, No: 08/24.
- Comin, D. and Gertler, M. (2003), “Medium Term Business Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, No: 10003.
- Cooley, T. F. and Prescott, E.C. (1995), “Economic Growth and Business Cycles”, in T.F. Cooley, (ed.), Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 1- 51.
- Corsetti, G. and Müler, G. J. (2007), “Twin DeŞcits, Openness and the Business Cycle”, CEPR Discussion Papers, No: 6492.
- D’Autume, A. and Philippe, M. (1993), “Endogenous Growth in Arrow’s Learning by Doing Model”, European Economic Review, 37 (6), 1175-1184.
- Doornik, J. and Hendry, D. (2001), “Econometric Modeling Using PcGive 10 Volume III”, London: Timberlake Consultants Ltd.
- Duarte, M. A. and Simoes, M. (2004), “Human Capital, Mechanisms of Technological Diffusion and the Role of Technological Shocks in the Speed of Diffusion: Evidence from a Panel of Mediterranean Countries”, GEMF Working Papers, No: 3.
- Dupaigne, M. and Feve, P. (2009), “Technology Shocks around the World”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 12, 592-607.
- Dupaigne, M. and Feve, P. (2010), “Hours Worked and Permanent Techonology Shocks”, Open Economic Review, 21, 69-86.
- Fisher, J. D. M. (2003), “Technology Shocks Matter”, Federal Reserve Bank Chicago of Working Paper, No: 2002-14.
- Fisher, J. D. M. (2006), “The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment Specific Technology Shocks”, Journal of Political Economy, 114, 413-451.
- Gali, J. (1996), “Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?”, NBER Working Paper, No: 5721.
- Greene, W. H. (2000), “Econometric Analysis”, New Jarsey: Prentice Hall.
- Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z. and Krusell, P. (2000), “The role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle”, European Economic Review, 44, 91-115.
- Guellec, D. and Potterie, B. V. P. D. L. (2001), “ R&D and Productivity Growth: Panel Data Analysis of 16 OECD Countries”, OECD Economic Studies, No: 33.
- Hakkonen, J. (1998), “Procyclical Labour Productivity, Labour Effort and Technology Shocks: A Study of Injury Rates in Swedish Manufacturing 1970-1992”, Working Paper Uppsala University, 21.
- Hall, R. E. (1988), “The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry”, Journal of Political Economy, 96 (5), 921-947.
- Hall, R. E. (1990), “Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual”, in P. Diamond (ed.), Growth, Productivity, Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday, Cambridge, MIT Press.
- Holly, S. and Petrella, I. (2010), “Factor Demand Linkages Tecnology Shocks and The Business Cycle”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No: 1001.
- Hsiao, C. (2003), “Analysis of Panel Data”, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press.
- Jaimovich, N. and Floetotto, M. (2008), “Firm Dynamics, Markup Variations and Business Cycle”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (7), 1238-1252.
- Jones, C. I. (1996), “Human Capital Ideas and Economic Growth”, http://www- leland.stanford.edu/~chadj/, (02 Nisan 2007).
- King, R. G. and Rebelo, S. (2000), “Resuscitating Real Business Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, No: 7534.
- Kylland, F. E. and Prescott, E. (1982), “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations”, Econometrica, 50 (6), 1345-1370.
- Lotfi, R. (2005), “External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Tunisia”, MPRA Paper, No: 630.
- Lucas, R. E. J. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1), 3-42.
- Marchetti, D. J. and Nucci, F. (2001), “Price Stickiness and Contractionaty Technology Shocks”, University http://www.enteluigieinaudi.it/pdf/Pubblicazioni/Temi/T_25.pdf, (14 Nisan 2009). of Rome La Sapienza,
- Marchetti, D. J. and Nucci, F. (2005), “Price Stickiness and the Contractionary Effect of Technology Shocks”, European Economic Review, 49 (5), 1137-1163.
- Marchionatti, R. and Usai, S. (1998), “International Technological Spillovers and Economic Growth: The Italian Case”, CRENOS Working Paper, No: 98-6.
- Mollick, A. V. and Cabral, R. (2009), “Productivity Effects on Mexican Manufacturing Employment”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20 (1), 66-81.
- Moskalyk, R. Y. (2007), “Impact of Trade Openness and Technology Transfers on Growth: Panel Data Investigation for Developing Countries”, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1145188, (22 Haziran 2009).
- Mulraine, M. L. B. (2006), “Investment Spesific Technology Shocks in A Small Open Economy”, MPRA Paper, No: 7.
- Noy, I. and Nualsri, A. (2007), “What Do Exogenous Shocks Tell Us about Growth Theories?”, Santa Cruz Center for International Economics (SCCIE) Working Paper, 7-16.
- Plosser, C. I. and Long, J. B. (1983), “Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 91 (1), 39-69.
- Prescott, E. (1986), “Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement”, Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review, 9-22.
- Prescott, E. C. (1988), “Robert M. Solow’s Neoclassical Growth Model: An Influential Contribution to Economics”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 90 (1), 7-12.
- Rebelo, S. T. (1991), “Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 99 (3), 500-521.
- Romer, P. M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5), 1002-1037.
- Romer, P. M. (1990), “Are Nonconvexities Important for Understanding Growth?”, American Economic Review, 80 (2), 97-103.
- Shea, J. (1998), “What Do Technology Shocks Do?”, NBER Working Paper Series, No: 6632.
- Smith, A. (1997), “Ulusların Zenginliği-I”, Çeviren: Yunus, A. ve Bakırcı, M., Alan Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
- Solow, R. (1957), “Technical Change and The Aggregate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320. Strazicich, M. C., Co, C. Y. and Lee, J. (2001), “Are Shocks to Foreign Investment in Developing Countries Permanent or Temporary? Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests”, Economic Letters, 70, 405-412.
- Zhang, Y. (2006), “China’s Business Cycles: The International Dimension”, University of Sydney, NSW.
- Yabancılara ait patent tescillerinin sektörel tasnifinde YTC (Yale Technology Concordance) kullanılmış ve elde edilen patent verileriyle REC indeksi (Indices of Technology Relevance) hesaplanmıştır.
- 1980-2008 dönemi için sağlıklı verilere ulaşılamayan ülkeler; Çek Cumhuriyeti, Kuveyt, Umman, Rusya, Bahreyn, Mısır, Letonya, Pakistan, Slovakya, Estonya, Litvanya, Peru, Sri Lanka, Macaristan, Bulgaristan, Polonya, Maurituis, Ürdün, Romanya, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Kolombiya ve Fas’tır
DIŞSAL TEKNOLOJİK ŞOKLAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ
Year 2013,
Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 47 - 69, 01.01.2013
Yrd. Doç. Dr. Kurtuluş Bozkurt
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Reel Konjonktür Teorisi (RBC) ekseninde teknolojik şokların özelliklede dışsal teknolojik şokların reel ekonominin işleyişini ne şekilde etkilediğini teorik olarak tespit etmek ve Türkiye’nin de dahil olduğu 12 gelişmekte olan ülkenin (GOÜ) veya başka bir deyişle Yükselen Ekonominin büyüme trendleri ile dışsal teknolojik şoklar arasında ampirik boyutta iktisadi ve istatistiki anlamda anlamlı bir ilişki olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Çalışma kapsamında; Dow Jones tarafından Mayıs 2010 tarihinde belirlenmiş olan 35 yükselen piyasa ekonomisinden çalışmanın incelemiş olduğu 1980- 2008 dönemine ilişkin sağlıklı verilere ulaşılabilen 12 ülke örneklem grubu olarak belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen analiz bulguları GOÜ’lerin önemli ölçüde dış kaynak ve teknoloji bağımlısı oldukları ve dışsal olarak tanımlanmış teknolojik şoklardan da önemli ölçüde etkilendiklerini göstermektedir. Ayrıca çalışma kapsamında yatırıma özgü teknolojik değişmelerin kısa dönemde konjonktür hareketlerindeki değişmenin önemli bir kısmını açıklama gücüne sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
References
- Abramovitz, M. (1956), “Resources and Output Trends in the United States since 1870”, American Economic Review, 46, 5-23.
- Aghion, P. and HOWİTT, P. (1992), “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction”, Econometrica, 60 (2), 323-351.
- Anderson, T. W. and Hsiao, C. (1981), “Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, 598–606.
- Arellano, M. (2003), “Panel Data Econometrics”, New York: Oxford University Press.
- Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
- Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error- Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-52.
- Baltagi, B. (2001), “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data”, Chichester, Eng.: John Wiley and Sons Inc., 292.
- Basant, R. and Fikkert, B. (1996), “The Effects of R&D, Foreign Technology Purchase and Domestic and International Spillovers on Productivity in Indian Firms”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (2), 187-199.
- Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. Blundell, R., Bond, S. and Windmeijer, F. (2000), Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimators, The Institute for Fiscal Studies Working Paper, No: 12.
- Bozkurt, K. (2007), “İçsel Büyüme Modelleri Bağlamında Türk İmalat Sanayinde Teknolojik Gelişme
- ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (513), 71-81.
- Bozkurt, K. (2008), “Türk İmalat Sanayisinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve İhracat Performansı”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumılar, 45 (522), 91-103.
- Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M, and Rebelo, S. (1996), “Sectoral Solow Residuals”, European Economic Review, 40 (3-5), 861-869.
- Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. and Rebelo, S. (1993), “Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle”, Journal of Political Economy, 101 (82), 245-273.
- Christiansen, L. E. (2008), “Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data”, IMF Working Paper, No: 08/24.
- Comin, D. and Gertler, M. (2003), “Medium Term Business Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, No: 10003.
- Cooley, T. F. and Prescott, E.C. (1995), “Economic Growth and Business Cycles”, in T.F. Cooley, (ed.), Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 1- 51.
- Corsetti, G. and Müler, G. J. (2007), “Twin DeŞcits, Openness and the Business Cycle”, CEPR Discussion Papers, No: 6492.
- D’Autume, A. and Philippe, M. (1993), “Endogenous Growth in Arrow’s Learning by Doing Model”, European Economic Review, 37 (6), 1175-1184.
- Doornik, J. and Hendry, D. (2001), “Econometric Modeling Using PcGive 10 Volume III”, London: Timberlake Consultants Ltd.
- Duarte, M. A. and Simoes, M. (2004), “Human Capital, Mechanisms of Technological Diffusion and the Role of Technological Shocks in the Speed of Diffusion: Evidence from a Panel of Mediterranean Countries”, GEMF Working Papers, No: 3.
- Dupaigne, M. and Feve, P. (2009), “Technology Shocks around the World”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 12, 592-607.
- Dupaigne, M. and Feve, P. (2010), “Hours Worked and Permanent Techonology Shocks”, Open Economic Review, 21, 69-86.
- Fisher, J. D. M. (2003), “Technology Shocks Matter”, Federal Reserve Bank Chicago of Working Paper, No: 2002-14.
- Fisher, J. D. M. (2006), “The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment Specific Technology Shocks”, Journal of Political Economy, 114, 413-451.
- Gali, J. (1996), “Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?”, NBER Working Paper, No: 5721.
- Greene, W. H. (2000), “Econometric Analysis”, New Jarsey: Prentice Hall.
- Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z. and Krusell, P. (2000), “The role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle”, European Economic Review, 44, 91-115.
- Guellec, D. and Potterie, B. V. P. D. L. (2001), “ R&D and Productivity Growth: Panel Data Analysis of 16 OECD Countries”, OECD Economic Studies, No: 33.
- Hakkonen, J. (1998), “Procyclical Labour Productivity, Labour Effort and Technology Shocks: A Study of Injury Rates in Swedish Manufacturing 1970-1992”, Working Paper Uppsala University, 21.
- Hall, R. E. (1988), “The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry”, Journal of Political Economy, 96 (5), 921-947.
- Hall, R. E. (1990), “Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual”, in P. Diamond (ed.), Growth, Productivity, Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday, Cambridge, MIT Press.
- Holly, S. and Petrella, I. (2010), “Factor Demand Linkages Tecnology Shocks and The Business Cycle”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No: 1001.
- Hsiao, C. (2003), “Analysis of Panel Data”, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press.
- Jaimovich, N. and Floetotto, M. (2008), “Firm Dynamics, Markup Variations and Business Cycle”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (7), 1238-1252.
- Jones, C. I. (1996), “Human Capital Ideas and Economic Growth”, http://www- leland.stanford.edu/~chadj/, (02 Nisan 2007).
- King, R. G. and Rebelo, S. (2000), “Resuscitating Real Business Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, No: 7534.
- Kylland, F. E. and Prescott, E. (1982), “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations”, Econometrica, 50 (6), 1345-1370.
- Lotfi, R. (2005), “External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Tunisia”, MPRA Paper, No: 630.
- Lucas, R. E. J. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1), 3-42.
- Marchetti, D. J. and Nucci, F. (2001), “Price Stickiness and Contractionaty Technology Shocks”, University http://www.enteluigieinaudi.it/pdf/Pubblicazioni/Temi/T_25.pdf, (14 Nisan 2009). of Rome La Sapienza,
- Marchetti, D. J. and Nucci, F. (2005), “Price Stickiness and the Contractionary Effect of Technology Shocks”, European Economic Review, 49 (5), 1137-1163.
- Marchionatti, R. and Usai, S. (1998), “International Technological Spillovers and Economic Growth: The Italian Case”, CRENOS Working Paper, No: 98-6.
- Mollick, A. V. and Cabral, R. (2009), “Productivity Effects on Mexican Manufacturing Employment”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20 (1), 66-81.
- Moskalyk, R. Y. (2007), “Impact of Trade Openness and Technology Transfers on Growth: Panel Data Investigation for Developing Countries”, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1145188, (22 Haziran 2009).
- Mulraine, M. L. B. (2006), “Investment Spesific Technology Shocks in A Small Open Economy”, MPRA Paper, No: 7.
- Noy, I. and Nualsri, A. (2007), “What Do Exogenous Shocks Tell Us about Growth Theories?”, Santa Cruz Center for International Economics (SCCIE) Working Paper, 7-16.
- Plosser, C. I. and Long, J. B. (1983), “Real Business Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 91 (1), 39-69.
- Prescott, E. (1986), “Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement”, Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review, 9-22.
- Prescott, E. C. (1988), “Robert M. Solow’s Neoclassical Growth Model: An Influential Contribution to Economics”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 90 (1), 7-12.
- Rebelo, S. T. (1991), “Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 99 (3), 500-521.
- Romer, P. M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5), 1002-1037.
- Romer, P. M. (1990), “Are Nonconvexities Important for Understanding Growth?”, American Economic Review, 80 (2), 97-103.
- Shea, J. (1998), “What Do Technology Shocks Do?”, NBER Working Paper Series, No: 6632.
- Smith, A. (1997), “Ulusların Zenginliği-I”, Çeviren: Yunus, A. ve Bakırcı, M., Alan Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
- Solow, R. (1957), “Technical Change and The Aggregate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320. Strazicich, M. C., Co, C. Y. and Lee, J. (2001), “Are Shocks to Foreign Investment in Developing Countries Permanent or Temporary? Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests”, Economic Letters, 70, 405-412.
- Zhang, Y. (2006), “China’s Business Cycles: The International Dimension”, University of Sydney, NSW.
- Yabancılara ait patent tescillerinin sektörel tasnifinde YTC (Yale Technology Concordance) kullanılmış ve elde edilen patent verileriyle REC indeksi (Indices of Technology Relevance) hesaplanmıştır.
- 1980-2008 dönemi için sağlıklı verilere ulaşılamayan ülkeler; Çek Cumhuriyeti, Kuveyt, Umman, Rusya, Bahreyn, Mısır, Letonya, Pakistan, Slovakya, Estonya, Litvanya, Peru, Sri Lanka, Macaristan, Bulgaristan, Polonya, Maurituis, Ürdün, Romanya, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Kolombiya ve Fas’tır