A SOCIAL CONSTRUCTIVIST CRITIQUE TO POWER-TRANSITION THEORY AS A PREDICTOR OF WAR

Abstract

The concept of power is inadvertently one of the most central topics in the field of politics. The concept has been intriguing for mankind as long as the human memory goes. Especially the realist school of thought has a primary focus on the power-narrative. One of the earliest studies undertaken was that of A.F.K. Organski who wrote World Politics in 1958 that constructed indicators what state power may or may not constitute. Organski’s work being explanatory has prompted a scientific prediction of war based on these indicators. Power Transition Theory provides relevance from a practical realist stance in today’s turbulent international order elaborating on Nation, International Relations and International Organizations. Constructivism criticizes the predictive abilities and the absoluteness as quick turn of events can make mockery of the tidiest of theories. However, this paper seeks to establish an alternative criticism to the Power Transition Theory as discussed in a vast body of literature on how wars are predicted during a transition of power on basis of Index of National Capability (INC).

Keywords

• Constructivism
• Power
• Power Transition Theory
• War
• Conflict

GÜÇ GEÇİŞİ TEORİSİNE SOSYAL İNŞACILIK PERSPEKTİFİNDEN ELEŞTİREL BİR BAKIŞ

Abstract

İktidar kavramı, siyaset alanının özünü oluşturan merkezi konulardan biri olup, insan varlığı kadar kadim ve de çekici bir temadır. Güç kavramı ve anlatısı mevcut siyasi düşünce ve akımlar arasında özelliklede realist düşünce ekolünün odak noktası olmuştur. Bu bağlamda devletlerin güçleri ve ne olduklarına dair önemli çalışmalardan biriside 1958'de World Politics adlı çalışmaya imza atan A.F.K. Organski olmuştur. Organski'nin bu çalışması temel bir model, bir gösterge olarak günümüzde halen kullanılmakta ve Güç Geçiş Kuramı adı altında savaşa ilişkin bilimsel bir tahmin teşvikinde bulunmaktadır. Sosyal inşacılık bir Uluslararası İlişkiler kuramı olarak realizm den esinlenen bu Güç geçiş Kuramının tahmin yeteneklerini ve mutlaklığını eleştirmektedir. Bu makale, güç geçişleri sırasında meydan okuyan ve meydan okunan arasında şiddetli bir rekabet olsa da, olmasa da savaşların nasıl tahmin edildiğine dair geniş bir literatürde tartışılan Güç Geçiş Kuramı'na alternatif bir eleştiri oluşturmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Sosyal İnşacılık
• Güç
• Güç Geçişi Teorisi
• Çatışma

Supporting Institution

Anadolu Üniversitesi

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