Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de uluslararası turizm talebi ve toplam ihracat ile alt bileşenleri (aramalları ve sermaye malları) ve toplam ithalat ile alt bileşenleri (aramalları ve sermaye malları) arasındaki nedensel ilişkilerinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri Hacker ve Hatemi- J Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto ve Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik testleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, uluslararası turizm talebi ile ihracat ve ithalat arasında nedensellik ilişkilerin istikrarsız olduğunu göstermektedir. Başka bir ifadeyle zamanla değişen bir yapıya sahiptir. Ayrıca, uluslararası turizm talebinin ithalata katkısı, ihracata katkısından daha büyüktür. Son olarak, uluslararası turizm talebinin ihracat ve ithalat bileşenlerine etkisi genellikle pozitif yöndedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcıları, sektör temsilcileri ve piyasa profesyonelleri hem uluslararası ticareti hem de uluslararası turizmi teşvik etmeyi amaçlayan politikaları geliştirmeden ve uygulamadan önce değişkenler arasında tespit edilen zamanla değişen nedensellik ilişkilerini göz önüne almalıdırlar.
Anadolu Üniversitesi (Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri)
Project Number
1506E488
References
Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2011). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 664–671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.003
Bahar, O., & Baldemir, E. (2008). Uluslararası Ticaret ile Uluslararası Turizm Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(4), 97–111.
Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2013). Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 60(1), 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12000
Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Arslanturk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398–1410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.05.015
Brahmbhatt, J., & Menezes, R. (2013). On the relation between tourism and trade: A network experiment. 2nd Network Science Workshop (NSW), 74–81. Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE.
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB). (2014). Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS). Retrieved December 14, 2014, from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?
Chaisumpunsakul, W., & Pholphirul, P. (2018). Does international trade promote international tourism demand? Evidence from Thailand’s trading partners. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 39(3), 393–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2017.06.007
Egeli, H. A. (1997). Türk turizminin dış ticaret ve sektörlerarası bağlantıları açısından değerlendirilmesi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 52(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002001
Fischer, C., & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2009). The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine. Applied Economics, 41(11), 1345–1359. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601019349
Gautam, V., & Kg, S. (2012). An Empirical Investigation About Relationship Between International Trade And Tourist Arrival: Evidence From India. Business Excellence and Management, 2(3), 53–62.
Gray, H. P. (1970). International travel-international trade. Lexington: Heath Lexington Books.
Gül, H., & Özer, M. (2018). Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey. European Journal of Тourism Research, 19, 86–97. Retrieved from http://ejtr.vumk.eu/index.php/volume1/573-v19rp86
Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489–1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
Hanafiah, M., Hafiz, M., Harun, M. F., & Jamaluddin, M. R. (2011). Trade and Tourism Demand : A Case of Malaysia. International Conference on Business and Economics Research, 1, 1–4. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: IACSIT Press.
Kadir, N., & Jusoff, K. (2010). The Cointegration and Causality Tests for Tourism and Trade in Malaysia. International Journal of
Economics and Finance, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v2n1p138
Kg, S., Gautam, V., & Kumar, M. (2011). Analysing the relationships among tourism, trade, and economic growth in Indian perspective. Journal of International Busieness and Economy, 12(1), 1–11.
Khan, H., & Lin, C. C. (2002). International trade and tourism: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests by using Singapore data. The 33rd Annual Conference of Travel and Tourism Association (TTRA), 6, 23–26.
Khan, H., Phang, S. –., & Toh, R. S. (1995). The multiplier effect Singapore’s hospitality industry. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 36(1), 64–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-8804(99)80060-3
Khan, H., Toh, R. S., & Chua, L. (2005). Tourism and Trade: Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests. Journal of Travel Research, 44(2), 171–176. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276607
Kulendran, N., & Wilson, K. (2000). Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel? Applied Economics, 32(8), 1001–1009. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368400322057
Majewska, J., & Minska-Struzik, E. (2012). In search of the relationship between international tourism and trade: evidence from Poland. ETSG 2012 Leuven: Fourteenth Annual Conference, 1–26. Retrieved from https://www.etsg.org/ETSG2012/Programme/Papers/447.pdf
Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2013). A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1), 93–105. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287512457262
Nyakabawo, W., Miller, S. M., Balcilar, M., Das, S., & Gupta, R. (2015). Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 33, 55–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2015.03.001
Oigenblick, L., & Kirschenbaum, A. (2002). Tourism and immigration: Comparing alternative approaches. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(4), 1086–1100. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(02)00023-3
Özer, M. (2015). Can Turkey be a good example for the Balkan Nations? The story of illusion of well-being! In X. Richet, H. Hanic, & Z. Grubisic (Eds.), New Economic Policy Reforms (pp. 15–58). Belgrade: Belgrade Banking Academy.
Polat, E., Türkan, S., & Günay, S. (2010). Relationship between tourism and trade in Turkey. International Conference On Applied Economics, 591–596. Athens: Department of Economic Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F. J., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2016). International trade and tourism flows: An extension of the gravity model. Economic Modelling, 52, 1026–1033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.043
Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2011). Tourism and trade in OECD countries. A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis. Empirical Economics, 41(2), 533–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0477-9
Sarmidi, T., & Mohd Salleh, N. H. (2011). Dynamic inter-relationship between trade, economic growth and tourism in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Management, 5(1), 38–52.
Seyidoğlu, H. (2007). Uluslarası iktisat-teori, politika ve uygulama. İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
Shan, J., & Wilson, K. (2001). Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 8(4), 279–283. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048501750104114
Socher, K. (1986). Tourism in the theory of international trade and payments. The Tourist Review, 41(3), 24–26. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb057953
Suleiman, N. N., & Albiman, M. M. (2014). Dynamic relationship between tourism, trade, infrastructure and economic growth: Empirical evidence From Malaysia. Journal of African Studies and Development, 6(3), 49–55. https://doi.org/10.5897/JASD2013.0260
Tang, S., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2007). The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China. Tourism Economics, 13(1), 25–39. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000007779784498
Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
Turkish Statistics Institute. (2014). Retrieved December 14, 2014, from http://www.tuik.gov.tr/
Turner, L. W., & Witt, S. F. (2001). Factors Influencing Demand for International Tourism: Tourism Demand Analysis Using Structural Equation Modelling, Revisited. Tourism Economics, 7(1), 21–38. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000001101297711
Vellas, F., & Bécherel, L. (1995). International Tourism: An Economic Perspective. Basingstoke, UK: Macmillan.
In this paper we examine the causal relations between international tourism demand and total exports and its sub-components (intermediate goods and capital goods) and total imports (intermediate goods and capital goods) in Turkey by using Hacker and Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto and Time-Varying Causality tests. The results of the study indicate the causal relations between international tourism demand and exports and imports. The results also indicate that these causal relations between international tourism demand and international trade are not stable. In other words, they have a time-varying nature. Moreover, international tourism demand’s contribution to imports are greater than that of exports. Finally, the international tourism demand is more often affected by components of exports and imports and the signs of are generally positive. Thus, policy makers, sector representatives and market professionals related to both international trade and tourism should take into account of this time-varying nature of causal relations between these variables before implementing policies aiming to promote both.
Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2011). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 664–671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.003
Bahar, O., & Baldemir, E. (2008). Uluslararası Ticaret ile Uluslararası Turizm Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(4), 97–111.
Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2013). Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 60(1), 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12000
Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Arslanturk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398–1410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.05.015
Brahmbhatt, J., & Menezes, R. (2013). On the relation between tourism and trade: A network experiment. 2nd Network Science Workshop (NSW), 74–81. Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE.
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB). (2014). Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS). Retrieved December 14, 2014, from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?
Chaisumpunsakul, W., & Pholphirul, P. (2018). Does international trade promote international tourism demand? Evidence from Thailand’s trading partners. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 39(3), 393–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2017.06.007
Egeli, H. A. (1997). Türk turizminin dış ticaret ve sektörlerarası bağlantıları açısından değerlendirilmesi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 52(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002001
Fischer, C., & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2009). The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine. Applied Economics, 41(11), 1345–1359. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601019349
Gautam, V., & Kg, S. (2012). An Empirical Investigation About Relationship Between International Trade And Tourist Arrival: Evidence From India. Business Excellence and Management, 2(3), 53–62.
Gray, H. P. (1970). International travel-international trade. Lexington: Heath Lexington Books.
Gül, H., & Özer, M. (2018). Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey. European Journal of Тourism Research, 19, 86–97. Retrieved from http://ejtr.vumk.eu/index.php/volume1/573-v19rp86
Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489–1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
Hanafiah, M., Hafiz, M., Harun, M. F., & Jamaluddin, M. R. (2011). Trade and Tourism Demand : A Case of Malaysia. International Conference on Business and Economics Research, 1, 1–4. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: IACSIT Press.
Kadir, N., & Jusoff, K. (2010). The Cointegration and Causality Tests for Tourism and Trade in Malaysia. International Journal of
Economics and Finance, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v2n1p138
Kg, S., Gautam, V., & Kumar, M. (2011). Analysing the relationships among tourism, trade, and economic growth in Indian perspective. Journal of International Busieness and Economy, 12(1), 1–11.
Khan, H., & Lin, C. C. (2002). International trade and tourism: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests by using Singapore data. The 33rd Annual Conference of Travel and Tourism Association (TTRA), 6, 23–26.
Khan, H., Phang, S. –., & Toh, R. S. (1995). The multiplier effect Singapore’s hospitality industry. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 36(1), 64–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-8804(99)80060-3
Khan, H., Toh, R. S., & Chua, L. (2005). Tourism and Trade: Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests. Journal of Travel Research, 44(2), 171–176. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276607
Kulendran, N., & Wilson, K. (2000). Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel? Applied Economics, 32(8), 1001–1009. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368400322057
Majewska, J., & Minska-Struzik, E. (2012). In search of the relationship between international tourism and trade: evidence from Poland. ETSG 2012 Leuven: Fourteenth Annual Conference, 1–26. Retrieved from https://www.etsg.org/ETSG2012/Programme/Papers/447.pdf
Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2013). A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1), 93–105. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287512457262
Nyakabawo, W., Miller, S. M., Balcilar, M., Das, S., & Gupta, R. (2015). Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 33, 55–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2015.03.001
Oigenblick, L., & Kirschenbaum, A. (2002). Tourism and immigration: Comparing alternative approaches. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(4), 1086–1100. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(02)00023-3
Özer, M. (2015). Can Turkey be a good example for the Balkan Nations? The story of illusion of well-being! In X. Richet, H. Hanic, & Z. Grubisic (Eds.), New Economic Policy Reforms (pp. 15–58). Belgrade: Belgrade Banking Academy.
Polat, E., Türkan, S., & Günay, S. (2010). Relationship between tourism and trade in Turkey. International Conference On Applied Economics, 591–596. Athens: Department of Economic Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F. J., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2016). International trade and tourism flows: An extension of the gravity model. Economic Modelling, 52, 1026–1033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.043
Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2011). Tourism and trade in OECD countries. A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis. Empirical Economics, 41(2), 533–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0477-9
Sarmidi, T., & Mohd Salleh, N. H. (2011). Dynamic inter-relationship between trade, economic growth and tourism in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Management, 5(1), 38–52.
Seyidoğlu, H. (2007). Uluslarası iktisat-teori, politika ve uygulama. İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
Shan, J., & Wilson, K. (2001). Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 8(4), 279–283. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048501750104114
Socher, K. (1986). Tourism in the theory of international trade and payments. The Tourist Review, 41(3), 24–26. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb057953
Suleiman, N. N., & Albiman, M. M. (2014). Dynamic relationship between tourism, trade, infrastructure and economic growth: Empirical evidence From Malaysia. Journal of African Studies and Development, 6(3), 49–55. https://doi.org/10.5897/JASD2013.0260
Tang, S., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2007). The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China. Tourism Economics, 13(1), 25–39. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000007779784498
Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
Turkish Statistics Institute. (2014). Retrieved December 14, 2014, from http://www.tuik.gov.tr/
Turner, L. W., & Witt, S. F. (2001). Factors Influencing Demand for International Tourism: Tourism Demand Analysis Using Structural Equation Modelling, Revisited. Tourism Economics, 7(1), 21–38. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000001101297711
Vellas, F., & Bécherel, L. (1995). International Tourism: An Economic Perspective. Basingstoke, UK: Macmillan.
Kırca, M., & Özer, M. (2020). TIME-VARYING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN TURKEY. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(75), 1212-1231. https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.676462
Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi (Electronic Journal of Social Sciences), Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı ile lisanslanmıştır.
ESBD Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi (Electronic Journal of Social Sciences), Türk Patent ve Marka Kurumu tarafından tescil edilmiştir. Marka No:2011/119849.