POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN TURKEY: A MONETARY APPROACH

Abstract

Politics and economics are two dependent areas that lead to political business cycles. Countries with different development levels encounter political business cycles differently. The existence of political business cycles is mostly researched on the basis of fiscal variables. In this paper, we will be dealing with the existence of political business cycles with respect to monetary variables. Our research utilizes a simple but explanatory time series model. The empirical results show the existence of the opportunistic political business cycles in Turkish economy. Keywords: Political business cycles; Time series analysis; Turkish political economy

Keywords

• Political business cycles; Time series analysis; Turkish political economy

TÜRKİYE’DE POLİTİK İŞ ÇEVRİMLERİ: PARASAL BİR YAKLAŞIM

Abstract

Politika ve ekonomi politik iş çevrimlerine neden olan iki bağımlı alandır. Değişik gelişmişlik düzeyine sahip ülkeler politik iş çevrimleriyle farklı bir şekilde karşı karşıya gelmektedir. Politik iş çevrimlerin varlığı daha çok mali değişkenler ile araştırılmıştır. Bu makalede, politik iş çevrimlerinin varlığı parasal değişkenler göz önüne alınarak ele alınmaktadır. Araştırmamız basit ama açıklayıcı bir zaman serisi modeli kullanmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye'de fırsatçı politik iş çevrimlerinin varlığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Politik iş çevrimleri, Zaman serisi analizi, Türkiye politik ekonomisi

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