POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN TURKEY: A MONETARY APPROACH

Year 2014, Volume: 13 Issue: 48, 159 - 175, 10.09.2014

Mesut Karaka

https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.07188

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Politics and economics are two dependent areas that lead to political business cycles. Countries with different development levels encounter political business cycles differently. The existence of political business cycles is mostly researched on the basis of fiscal variables. In this paper, we will be dealing with the existence of political business cycles with respect to monetary variables. Our research utilizes a simple but explanatory time series model. The empirical results show the existence of the opportunistic political business cycles in Turkish economy.
Keywords: Political business cycles; Time series analysis; Turkish political economy

Keywords

Political business cycles; Time series analysis; Turkish political economy

TÜRKİYE’DE POLİTİK İŞ ÇEVRİMLERİ: PARASAL BİR YAKLAŞIM

Abstract

Politika ve ekonomi politik iş çevrimlerine neden olan iki bağımlı alandır. Değişik gelişmişlik düzeyine sahip ülkeler politik iş çevrimleriyle farklı bir şekilde karşı karşıya gelmektedir. Politik iş çevrimlerin varlığı daha çok mali değişkenler ile araştırılmıştır. Bu makalede, politik iş çevrimlerinin varlığı parasal değişkenler göz önüne alınarak ele alınmaktadır. Araştırmamız basit ama açıklayıcı bir zaman serisi modeli kullanmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye'de fırsatçı politik iş çevrimlerinin varlığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Politik iş çevrimleri, Zaman serisi analizi, Türkiye politik ekonomisi

References

• Alesina, A. (1987). Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102, 651-678.
• Alesina, A. (1988). Credibility and Policy convergence in a Two-party System with Rational Voters. American Economic Review, 78, 796-805.
• Alesina, A., Roubini, N., & Cohen, G. (1992). Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Alesina, A., & Roubini, N. (1992). Political cycles in OECD Economies. Review of Economic Studies, 59, 663-688.
• Asutay, M. (2004). Searching for Opportunistic Political Business Cycles in Turkey. Paper presented in European Public Choice Society.
• Berument, H., & Heckelman, J. C. (1998). Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections. Southern Economic Journal, 64(4), 987-1000.
• Drazen, A. (2000). Political Economy in Macroeconomics. Princeton, Nj:Princeton University Press.
• Drazen, A. (2000). The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 75-117.
• EVDS Central Bank of Turkey. Retrieved from http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/ Fair, R. (1978). The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President. Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159-172.
• Grier, K. (1989). On the Existence of a Political Monetary Cycle. American Journal of Political Science, 33, 376-389.
• Haynes, S., & Stone, J. (1989). Political Models of the Business Cycle Should be Reviewed. Economic Inquiry, 28, 442-465.
• Hibbs, D. (1977). Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy. American Political Science Review, 71, 1467-1487.
• Johnston, J., & Dinardo, J. (1997). Econometric Methods. Irwin: McGraw-Hill.
• Keech, W., & Pak, K. (1989). Electoral Cycles and Budgetary Growth in Veterans’ Benefit Programs. American Journal of Political Science, 33, 901-911.
• Kramer, G. (1971). Short-term Fluctuations in US Voting Behavior, 1896-1964. American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.
• Kuzu, Y. (2003). Political Business Cycle in the Turkish Economy: 1977-2001. METU Conference in Economics VII September 6-9, 2003, Ankara, Turkey.
• Nordhaus, W. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. Review of Economic Studies, 42, 1691
• Rogoff, K., & Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 55, 1-16.
• Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles. American Economic Review, 80, 21Sezgin, Ş. (2007). Türkiye’de Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2003 Dönemi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 136-154.
• Tufte, E. (1975). Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections. American Political Science Review, 69, 812-826.
• Tufte, E. (1978). Political Control of the Economy. Princeton, Nj:Princeton University Press. Tutar, İ., & Tansel, A. (2000). Political Business Cycles, Institutional Structure and Budget Deficits in Turkey. Paper presented in Metu Conference in Economics.
• Türkiye Seçimleri. Retrieved from http://www.belgenet.net/ Williams, J. (1990). The political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy. American Political Science Review, 84, 767-795.