ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Year 2021, Volume: 22 Issue: 3, 239 - 259, 29.09.2021

Levent Özbek Hakan Demirtaş

https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307

Abstract

In this study, cumulative and daily cases are estimated online using discrete-time Gompertz model (DTGM) and Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) based on the total COVID-19 cases between February 29-July 28, 2020 in USA, Germany, India, Russia, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Brazil. Employing the data collected between February 29 and July 28, 2020, it is showed that the DTGM in conjunction with AKF provides a good analysis tool for modeling the daily cases made using the in terms of mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and R^2.

Keywords

COVID-19, Gompertz models, adaptive Kalman filter

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Abstract

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