MATHEMATİCAL MODELİNG İN EPİDEMİOLOGY: PREDİCTİON OF THE FUTURE

Abstract

Using numbers is an old tradition to define "normal" functions of the human body, and the number is the language of mathematics. With the use of computers in the twentieth century, a new era was started and important steps were taken in diagnosing, treating, monitoring diseases and determining future expectations. Today, data mining, artificial intelligence, machine learning, neural network applications have entered almost every field of medicine and the use of algorithms, mathematical modelling have become an indispensable part of medicine and health services. Especially during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of the need for mathematical modeling has become even more evident. Although mathematical modeling, which is an important field for the science of epidemiology, aims to develop appropriate control methods by examining the frequency and distribution of all kinds of health-related conditions and events, initially seems like a magic formula, it is seen that many dilemmas are faced. In this study, various models developed for epidemiological purposes are discussed following the brief information regarding the aim and types of mathematical modeling in medicine.

Keywords

• Mathematical modeling
• deterministic model
• stochastic model
• systems epidemiology

EPİDEMİYOLOJİDE MATEMATİK MODEL KULLANIMI: GELECEK TAHMİNİ

Abstract

İnsan bedenine ilişkin “normal” işlevleri tanımlama ihtiyacının ortaya çıktığı günden beri sayıları kullanarak değerlendirme yapmak alışkanlık ve gereklilik haline gelmiştir ki sayı matematiğin dilidir. Yirminci yüzyılda bilgisayarların kullanılmaya başlanması ile yeni bir aşamaya geçilmiş ve hastalıkların tanısı, tedavisi, izlenmesi ve ileriye yönelik beklentilerin belirlenmesi konusunda önemli adımlar atılmıştır. Günümüzde veri madenciliği, yapay zeka, makine öğrenmesi, nöral ağ uygulamaları tıbbın her alanına girmiş ve geliştirilen algoritmalarla, modellemelerle matematik kullanımı tıbbın ve sağlık hizmetlerinin vazgeçilmez bir parçası haline gelmiştir. Özellikle son yaşanılan COVID-19 pandemisi döneminde matematik modellemelere olan ihtiyacın önemi daha da belirginleşmiştir.Sağlıkla ilgili her türlü durum ve olayın sıklığını ve dağılımını inceleyerek uygun kontrol yöntemleri geliştirmeyi amaç edinmiş epidemiyoloji bilimi için önemli bir alan olan matematik modellemeler başlangıçta sihirli bir formül gibi görünse de pek çok açmaz ile karşı karşıya olunduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada tıpta matematik modellemelerin kullanılma amaçları ve türleri konusunda özet bilgi verildikten sonra epidemiyolojik amaçla geliştirilmiş olan çeşitli modellemeler üzerinde durulmuştur.

Keywords

• Matematik modelleme
• deterministik model
• stokastik model
• sistemler epidemiyolojisi

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